Wednesday, April 9, 2008

Trent Johnson to LSU?

LSU BASKETBALL SET TO HIRE TRENT JOHNSON
By Ken Trahan
Wednesday, April 09 2008
WGSO has learned that LSU is set to hire Stanford’s Trent Johnson as its new head basketball coach. Johnson, a graduate of Boise State, spent the last four seasons at Stanford compiling an overall record of 81-48 with three NCAA tournament appearances and one NIT appearance. This past season, Johnson guided the Cardinal to the Sweet 16, beating Cornell and Marquette in the NCAA tournament before being eliminated by Texas. Prior to his stint at Stanford, Johnson served as the head coach at Nevada from 1999-2004, leading them to the Sweet 16 in 2004. Johnson will become the first ever African-American head coach in LSU men’s basketball history.

If true, this is big news. You have to believe Montgomery knew about this before committing to Cal given he was employed by the university as well as his close relationship to Trent. Moreover, it's hard to imagine that Bowlsby (Stanford's AD)didn't offer Montgomery the job. Ipso facto, Monty turned down the Cardinal for Cal. I'm liking him more already!

Trent departing isn't in and of itself suprising. He and Bowlsby did not get along, Johnson was not popular with his players and he had little coming back after Los Lopez announced they were leaving. Bowlsby had delayed signing Trent to a contract extension and Trent clearly decided he would be more wanted elsewhere.

Don't be surprised to see Mark Fox or Tony Bennett introduced as Stanford's new head basketball coach.

Sunday, April 6, 2008

Moving Forward

The die is cast, the decision is made and Mike Montgomery, for better or worse, is our head coach. From this point on, it's a lot more constructive to focus on the positives.

Montgomery has already done a great job recruiting the current roster. I doubt you'll see a single player transfer as a result of Montgomery's reputation for winning. The players can already imagine a full and boisterous Haas Pavilion as Montgomery mania sweeps the Bay Area.

Despite the choice of Montgomery, Ryan Anderson is headed to the NBA if he can be assured of being a first round choice. Montgomery's comments about wanting Ryan to move in with he and his wife were surely flattering to Ryan, but the Andersons are well aware of Montgomery's bias towards players staying all four years (He did not support Childress or Jacobsen's early departures) and are simply focused on understanding where Ryan will likely fall in the draft.

I think we're going to get an immediate upswing in recruiting. I feel confident that both DJ Seeley (a top 50 national prospect) and Garrett Sim (likely the Oregon State Player of the Year) will honor their commitments to Cal. Top 2009 targets include Branden Lane, a sweet shooting 6'9" prospect our of Sacramento, who likely will be thrilled with Montgomery given Mike's track record with big men and sweet shooting perimieter players.

The big questions at this point:

- What type of assistants in addition to his son will he hire? Will that group include an "ace" recruiter?
- Will Cal run a similar system to the one Stanford ran or have Mike's theories evolved since his stint in the NBA? If Montgomery really wants to leverage the recruiting flexibility of Cal, will he go more uptempo and run the more popular varieties of a motion offense rather than the very disciplined set of fixed plays he used at Stanford?

Friday, April 4, 2008

The Dark Side

If the rumors prove to be true and Mike Montgomery is indeed the next head coach at Cal, I will experience a profound sense of both relief and disquiet. Relief that the Bears are bringing on a winner, a man who will go from the role of arch enemy to potential saviour. It's not too different from the feeling you had watching Darth Vader pick up the Emperor and throw him to his death in Return of the Jedi. It's not like you ever liked the disfigured, heavy breathing menace in black nor could you have imagined him yucking it up with Han and Chewy, but you still cheered because dammit Vader was nasty tough and now he was working for the light side. Relief because with Monty stalking the sidelines at Haas, we will all sleep better knowing the days of the consistently inconsistent Ben Braun are forever behind us.

The trouble is that this hire was too safe, too damn easy and like most decisions that are made for comfort and instant applause, it will eventually be regretted. Mike Montgomery is already a Hall of Fame coach. If he works twenty hours a week and mails it in from here on out, no one will ever disparage him. The burning ambition that drives college head coaches to deprive themselves of sleep and to text message 17 year olds 100 times a night has been replaced in Montgomery by a beautiful house in Menlo Park, $150 haircuts at Di Pietro Todd and long meals with his wife Sarah at the Village Pub. He's already rich, he's already famous and his legacy is written.

It's not that he can't still coach, just listening to Montgomery call Pac 10 games on television and you realize this guy isn't just smart, he's a frigging genius when it comes to basketball. I can't imagine Long Beach State ever produced a more cerebral graduate. He's tough as nails and reeks of confidence. But Cal is his graceful exit not his big bang. Montgomery has been up front that his goal is to coach somewhere where his son could follow him. I have zero doubt that John Montgomery, a very capable and charismatic young coach, will be the first addition to the staff. This will be the fourth time in recent years where a hall of fame coach has cut a deal to bequeath his son his job. Let's review how the others turned out in a vain attempt to predict the future.

Bobby Knight leaves Indiana for Texas Tech. The Red Raider Faithful rejoice as they believe they are actually going to matter now in basketball. And in fact, they do matter MORE than they did before, finishing in the top 3-4 of the B12 consistently for the first time, winning 60% of their games and consistently seeing their coach on ESPN for his latest grocery store or hunting gaffe. But did Texas Tech become a power? Not in the least. The last three years have been a free fall to utter mediocrity and there is no conference championship or sweet sixteen run to sustain people in Lubbock now that they have Pat Knight as their coach. Eddie Sutton did wonders at Oklahoma State, but the day he announced his son Sean would be taking over for him, the program went sideways and now the Sutton era in Stillwater is over as Sean has been let go after two forgettable years. Dick Bennett, after toiling in relative obscurity at Wisconsin Green Bay (where his highlight was beating Todd Bozeman's NBA all star team cum Cal Bears in the NCAA first round) got a chance to become a hall of famer at Wisconsin and he delivered. He made Badger basketball big time, including a final four run. For his swan song, he took the job at WSU with the agreement that his son would take over for him. Dick then preceded to make the Cougars only slightly less mediocre than they were before his arrival before. To the incredible good fortune of Washington State, his son Tony proved to be a gem, a 1in a 100 type coaching talent. The punch line is that HOF coaches in the eighth inning of their careers who are focused on their sons future job prospects don't build big time programs and unless John Montgomery proves to be a special talent, Cal took less of a step forward and more of a step sideways than anyone likely wants to recognize.

For those of you too lazy to read my post below outlining why Monty was not the right choice for the Bears, let me recap the three salient points. Montgomery does not like to recruit and I have no reason to believe that even if he did, he would be good at it. Stanford recruited for Montgomery and even then he failed to consistently land the type of top talent one would assume a program of that weight would attract even taking into account the academic requirements. The opportunity in Berkeley is 90% about recruiting. It's about keeping the best NorCal talent at home and out manuevering USC, UW, ASU and Oregon for the very good but not elite west coast talent that UCLA and Arizona don't want. Secondly, Stanford under Monty was a team that always peaked early. They did great in conference play but come tourney time, they woefully underperformed. It was in part the lack of talent that is to blame for this but it's also the rigid system Monty used which maximized the performance of players who had limited athletic ability but who were smart and would stick around for all four if not five years to master it. That is not the recipe that will produce success in Berkeley. Lastly, Montgomery's countenance and style were picture perfect for the country club that pretends to be a place of higher learning known as Leland Stanford Junior College (oops I meant University). His arrogance and aloof demeanor were right out of central casting. In Berkeley? This plays about as well as a Bill O'Reilly speech in Sproul Plaza.

This isn't a bad hire. It's miles better than risking the job on Randy Bennett or Mike Dunlap but it's way too safe and easy. Reaching financially to grab a Jamie Dixon or a Jay Wright may not have been possible but landing a young Mike Montgomery in the form of Mark Fox or Tony Bennett or Anthony Grant, all with some potential downside but more importantly unlimited upside. We want our own Luke Skywalker, someone who will be remembered for the memories he creates in Haas Pavilion while coaching guys in Blue and Gold not Cardinal and White.

Wednesday, April 2, 2008

The latest

My sources are telling me that mark Fox is no longer a viable candidate. He recently told his McD's AA recruit at Nevada, Luke Babbitt, that he is not leaving and will be at Nevada next year. While this is far from definitive, it doesn't inspire confidence.

Jay Wright has a large buyout from Villanova which is not making it easy for Cal to close the deal. It's time for Cal alums to step up and land a coach who would instantly vault the Bears into the upper echelon of college programs. Wright's three sweet sixteen appearances, his three McD's AA recruits and mostly the fearless and back down from noone attitude that his teams play would be a perfect fit in Berkeley.

If Fox is indeed out of the mix and Cal alums cannot find the dough to land Wright, it may come down to Randy Bennett and Mike Dunlap. Both would be risks and neither is likely to establish the immediate credibility you want to energize potential recruits and bring fans back to Haas.

Tuesday, April 1, 2008

A few other schools fill their openings - Jay Wright?

It's been a busy day in college basketball coaching circles and one that directly involved two of the candidates highlighted below as potential Cal head coaches. Tom Crean is the next coach at Indiana University and Bill Grier has left USD after only one season to take over at Oregon State. The openings created at Marquette and USD are not likely to negatively impact the Bear search but one new opening might. Oklahoma State parted ways with Sean Sutton after only two years. Lingering bitterness between Eddie Sutton and the AD and OSUs patron saint, T Boone Pickens, gave Sean very little rope and apparently missing the NCAAs this year used up what little he had. OSU is a big time college program. Fantastic facilities, a storied history and a rabid fan and alum base make this a very attractive opening. Cowboy fans are clamoring for former alum Bill Self to come back to Stillwater, but that seems like a long shot. As a result, guys like Jamie Dixon, Sean Miller and Jay Wright could be on their wish list.

Speaking of Jay Wright. His name has come up as a finalist for the Cal job. He would be a BIG time catch. As excited as I would be to see Mark Fox move down from Reno, Wright is in another league. He has taken Villanova from the abyss to a perennial top 20 program. While the Wildcats have a great basketball heritage, it is a tiny school with mediocre facilities and limited resources. Still, they are a regular to the NCAA tourney and three years ago went to the elite eight as a #1 seed. Wright has recruited exceptionally well and his teams play a tough minded brand of basketball that has been missed in Berkeley. The opening could be attractive to Wright because of Cal's size and natural recruiting advantages. Keep your fingers crossed.

Contra Costa Times on Coaching Search

Clearly Sandy has been reading the blog. :)

Bennett and Monty not on the radar, Fox is very much in the forefront of the recruiting effort.

http://www.contracostatimes.com/cal/ci_8768220?nclick_check=1