The results of the 2008 football season will reflect whether this Cal team and the football program as a whole can take a step forward in its mental toughness and resiliency. Coming off a miserable season where the Bears went from undefeated and #2 in the nation to a team that barely showed up in dismal losses to Pac 10 bottom dwellers Stanford and Washington, this has become issue #1.
Can this team and this program find what was so obviously missing last year - The leadership, the competitive fire and the never back down attitude that are such necessary ingredients to winning college football games? Coach Tedford has gone out of his way to recognize these missing ingredients and changes have been made. No longer will Tedford manage the offense, instead he hired Frank Cignetti to lead the offense and call the plays. He challenged the team to find leaders and for its seniors to speak out and set the pace. He found insight and inspiration in a book titled, “Talent is never enough” and adopted its principles.
Whether any or all of this will translate to the team’s performance is to be determined. But make no mistake; this is far and away the biggest question for Cal football going into this season. Bigger than the quarterback competition, the loss of the WR corps or questions about the run defense. In trying to project how things might turn out, it’s sometimes helpful to look back in time. The subject of mental fortitude and the ability to overcome adversity are highly subjective topics and applying empirical data to this issue will by no means provide answers but it may provide some perspective.
Let’s look back at the Tedford era and remind ourselves how the Bears have performed when under adversity:
Winning on the road in the Pac 10 is never easy and to do so requires a certain amount of toughness and the ability to perform under less than ideal conditions:
· Tedford’s Bears have gone 12 and 13 for a winning percentage of 48%. That number strikes me as solid but not spectacular. Comparing it to USC and Oregon State may provide some relative perspective as those are the Pac Ten's top 2 programs outside of Cal over the past five years. USCs record is unsurprisingly much better at 20-5 and Oregon State’s is somewhat surprisingly also markedly better at 60% (All of the Oregon State information cited here goes back only to 2003 which was when Mike Riley took over as their head coach)
How about winning big games? They don’t come any bigger than rivalry games and bowl games:
· Cal has shined winning 5 of 6 Big Games while going 4-1 in bowls
Others might define big games by those that occur at the end of the season where the stakes get raised significantly:
· In games played on November 1st and later (excluding the aforementioned Bowl Games), Tedford’s Cal teams have gone 13-9 for a winning percentage of 59%. That’s not too shabby but below Tedford’s overall winning percentage of 66% and perhaps not as impressive when the Stanford games are removed (making the record 8-8). The trend is also interesting as Cal went 9-2 during this period in Tedford’s first three seasons and only 4-7 since. To make these numbers more real, let’s compare them again to the Beavers and the Trojans. Oregon State under Riley has won 63% of their post November games while USC has a remarkable 96% winning percentage since 2002 in games after October.
Adversity can perhaps best be measure by in game challenges:
· When tied or trailing after three quarters, Cal is 7-17 for a 29% winning percentage. Trend wise, the Bears were nearly .500 at 5-7 during Tedford’s first three seasons and a much more anemic 2-10 these past three years. This is a particularly uninformative number in the absence of relative data and citing only two Pac 10 teams improves things only marginally but USC has a .500 record under the same circumstances while Oregon State is at 24%. Riley's Beavers trend line is more positive than Cal's as they were 0 and 7 his first two years before rallying for a 5-9 record the past three seasons.
How about games decided by ten or fewer points?
· Cal is 19-24 or 44% in close games but 2 and 1 in games decided in overtime. Not exactly clutch but the numbers don’t say chokers either.
Getting beyond the numbers, there are several factors folks look at when trying to understand the mental makeup of the team. The first notion is that a team takes on its coaches personality. In Tedford, Cal has a no-nonsense, straight shooting and hyper intense coach whose integrity and character are unimpeachable. Under Tedford’s leadership the Bears have been a highly disciplined group that is well prepared every time they stop on the field. It’s also worth noting that this is his first head coaching experience and as the program grows and improves, facing new challenges and at time dizzying heights of success, Tedford is experiencing those same things for the first time as the top dog. All that said, Tedford is not a fiery emotional leader or an overtly rah-rah guy. While he’s clearly a highly competitive and determined person, he’s better known for not wanting to run up the score and avoiding saying anything inflammatory about other coaches or programs. This is in sharp contrast to the highly emotional types such as Mike Riley and Pete Carroll whose teams we have compared to Cal in this article. It’s also very different from the Bruce Snyder coached Bears who were as apt to get an ill timed personal foul as they were to win a big game.
What about the players? In the past, Cal’s leaders have been obvious and easy to see to even the most casual fan. From Hardy Nickerson to Mike Pawlawski to Eric Zomalt to Jerrot Willard to Tony Gonzalez to Donnie McClesky and Desmond Bishop, the Bears have had men whose stellar play on the field and emotional verve made them natural leaders. Last year and looking forward to this year, it’s less obvious who those folks were and will be. Alex Mack is clearly that type of a player and his intensity at practice is second to no one but offenses usually look to their quarterback for this type of leadership. That may in fact have factored into the coaches decision to start Kevin Riley over Nate Longshore. Riley’s demeanor on the field speaks to more intensity and competitive fire than the understated Longshore and in his two appearances, Riley definitely did well in the face of significant adversity, leading one near comeback and another successful one. It’s interesting to ponder whether the Bears success in the classroom and its relative absence of the off the field problemshas a side effect relative to finding these fanatical football players. I’m certainly not advocating anything other than the current direction the coaches have gone with their recruiting evaluations as never before have Cal fans and alums been able to be equally proud of a football program both on and off the field. That said, I wondered prior to last season where the junkyard dog, back down from no one, never give up, want them at your back in a dark alley type of players were on the team. I don't think we ever found them.
After raising a provocative question and supplying some data and some pure conjecture for contemplation, let me give you my conclusion.
I believe the Bears will bounce back and have a far more successful year this season than what was experienced in 2007, in large part because of the improved mental toughness and fortitude of the 2008 team. Here’s why I have confidence in this years team finding what was missing last season:
- The changes Tedford has made on his coaching staff and in his decision to delegate control of the offense addresses this issue head on. Bringing in Tosh Lupoi to coach the defensive line and Al Simmons to handle the defensive backs has immediately increased the intensity and competitive fire of the defense. The veteran Simmons and the very young Lupoi have an emotional style that gives the team something that Tedford personally lacks. Coach Tedford now has the time to monitor and adjust the teams emotional and mental fitness as a result of not handling the offense
- Senior leadership is obvious this year on both sides of the ball. Alex Mack came back to Cal to win a national championship and he practices and prepares as if he is planning on nothing less. As mentioned above, Riley's leadership style at QB is as important as his big arm and quick feet. On defense, Rulon Davis’ maturity and his non stop motor set a cadence for the rest of the defense to follow. Zach Follett and Worrell Williams have both been outspoken about leading this team and I believe the defense will in fact set the emotional tone for the 2008 Bears
- Expectations are lower this year and perhaps more importantly, the program has gotten used to the pressure brought on by higher expectations. From the lessons in 2006 from visiting Knoxville to last years collapse, these Cal players not only expect to win and win often, they know what it feels like when it all goes wrong. The pressure will be off and when adversity does arise, they will be prepared.
- The absence of “me first” players who saw themselves as bigger than the program. One of the primary advantages of the perennial powerhouses in college football is not simply that they can attract 5 star talent. It’s that those big time prep players know without a doubt that they are not bigger than the tradition and winning legacy of their school. Cal is building that tradition but is not there yet. In fact, in recent years, Cal has probably done more to promote individual players than the program as a whole. That has led to a small number of prima donnas whose own agenda superseded that of the teams. Those players are now gone.
If Jeff Tedford were to lose his mind and ask me for advice on this topic, the one thing I would suggest is that when he recruits student athletes that he take their heart and their desire to win football games as perhaps even more important than their latent talent. I’ll take 2 and 3 star players who will do anything to win games rather than 4 and 5 star talents who either lack the desire to truly compete in the face of adversity or are simply out for themselves. That’s not to say that talent isn’t important, but as Jeff recently read, it’s never enough.
Monday, August 25, 2008
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
2008 Pac-10 Projection
2008 Predicted Pacific Ten Conference Final Standings:
1. USC 8-1
2. Cal 7-2
3. Oregon 6-3
4. ASU 5-4
5. Arizona 5-4
6. Oregon State 4-5
7. Stanford 3-6
8. UCLA 3-6
9. UW 2-7
10. WSU 2-7
USC:
Pete Carroll continues to assemble the best depth of talent in all of college football. As a result he is often overlooked for his tremendous teaching and motivational abilities as a coach. His USC teams play at a consistently high level of intensity and rarely hurt themselves with mistakes. In 2008, the Trojans defense should be exceptional, look for more forced turnovers and improved special teams play. The offense is not nearly at the same level. The quarterback position is a major question with the likely starter being an unproven Mark Sanchez. Sanchez went down with a knee injury in camp this summer and neither of his backups have yet to distinguish themselves. Compounding the concern at quarterback is USCs offensive line. It’s a group with potential but it’s lacking in experience and depth. In addition, playmakers need to be found at both the WR and TE positions. If the offensive line can come together, a strong running game should emerge helping the Trojans young quarterbacks find their footing. Look for USC to get hit with a rare home lose to Ohio State and another game in the first half of the Pac 10 slate.
California
The depth and talent in Berkeley are superior to all but USC within the conference. Had the Bears not done their best Van De Velde imitation in late October last season, we’d be talking about them as a legitimate threat to USC’s conference dominance. Instead, we’re left wondering if this programs psyche and confidence can be resuscitated. On paper, the team looks impressive. On offense, it starts up front where Cal sports the team’s deepest and most talented offensive line in the Tedford era. The running game should be strong as only the Trojans have a better stable of running backs. Playmakers need to be established at WR, but they will be helped by having a healthy fifth year senior and a dynamic sophomore both of whom have played well in the past throwing them the ball. The Bear’s defense should be improved with 8 returning starters. However, they have shifted to a 3-4 set, which could take time to master, and the run defense has to improve for Cal to play well. How this team deals with adversity will point to whether they challenge USC for the conference title as they did two years ago or end up near the bottom of the conference as they did last season.
Oregon:
This will be the Ducks best defensive team in many years. The secondary is as good as USC’s and they return the conference’s top sack master at DE. On offense, the Ducks offensive line will be among the nation’s best and will allow new stars to establish themselves at wide receiver and quarterback. The schedule is ugly and depth is a concern almost everywhere. Oregon will need to stay healthy, especially at quarterback, linebacker and defensive tackle if they plan to contend for the Pac 10 crown.
Arizona State:
Erickson made a great first impression and did so with only decent talent. The schedule is a lot less favorable this year and much of the talent that was there last year has left for the NFL. Carpenter is a good but not great quarterback and the offensive line only looks good when compared to UCLA’s. If the offensive line can find itself, there is talent at WR and RB. The defense came alive under Erickson and should again be solid if unspectacular. Bolden and Nolan are both studs in the secondary. ASU has three very good defensive lineman but little depth. Expect ASU to come back to earth as Erickson works to stockpile AAA talent.
Arizona:
It couldn’t happen to a less likable guy but Stoops will finally get over the hump this year. The offense will be solid with Grigsby as a run threat and Tuitama and a very strong WR corps mastering the spread offense. If they can stay healthy, the offensive line looks like the best crew Stoops has had. Last year’s defense disappointed but they should bounce back to the hard hitting bunch Stoops is known to develop. Depth is a concern almost everywhere but receiver and special teams play could be a nightmare.
Oregon State:
Mike Riley is a superb coach and despite having to rebuild his defense, this team will be competitive. Moevao will establish himself as a reliable P10 QB with a solid group of wide receivers led by Sammie Stroughter who could be the conference’s best wideout . The defense must replace nine starters but has some talent coming in to mitigate the losses. On both sides of the ball, the Beavers ability to create a run game and stop the opponents run will be the keys to the season
Stanford:
A staunch defense and a further injection of Harbaugh’s raw optimism will result in one more win that last season. Stanford has a very strong front seven on defense and they finally have a decent offensive line to help their offense. The Cardinal lacks any offensive playmakers including at quarterback and the secondary will be spotty. While it’s highly unlikely they will surprise USC or Cal again, this Stanford team will be more competitive and take another step forward in the Harbaugh rebuilding process
UCLA:
Rick Neuheisel is going to just have to grin and bear it. Despite a stout defense, UCLA does not have enough to overcome the conference’s most anemic offense. The Bruins offensive line will be reminiscent of the groups Stanford put out under Buddy Teevens and Walt Harris. Look for sacks galore and a non-existent running game. The talent and depth at QB is only marginally better which will waste a strong corps of running backs and wide receivers. The defense should keep games close but that won’t be enough to keep UCLA solidly in the bottom half in the conference.
Washington:
A brutal schedule will eviscerate any hope Ty Willingham had of keeping his job. His Dawgs will play hard and smart but that won’t be enough to overcome a lack of talent. Locker is an absolute stud at QB but injuries and a lack of playmakers around him will dull his impact. The defense is more talented than last years group but very young. Given UW’s recruiting momentum, Willingham would turn this around in another year but the UW faithful don’t have the patience.
Washington State:
Look for a better than expected offensive performance and an every bit as bad as advertised defense from the Cougars. They will upset a couple of folks at home but will endure some bad beatings on the road. New coach Paul Wullf will improve this teams discipline and consistency but unless he can recruit, he may have a short stay in Pullman.
1. USC 8-1
2. Cal 7-2
3. Oregon 6-3
4. ASU 5-4
5. Arizona 5-4
6. Oregon State 4-5
7. Stanford 3-6
8. UCLA 3-6
9. UW 2-7
10. WSU 2-7
USC:
Pete Carroll continues to assemble the best depth of talent in all of college football. As a result he is often overlooked for his tremendous teaching and motivational abilities as a coach. His USC teams play at a consistently high level of intensity and rarely hurt themselves with mistakes. In 2008, the Trojans defense should be exceptional, look for more forced turnovers and improved special teams play. The offense is not nearly at the same level. The quarterback position is a major question with the likely starter being an unproven Mark Sanchez. Sanchez went down with a knee injury in camp this summer and neither of his backups have yet to distinguish themselves. Compounding the concern at quarterback is USCs offensive line. It’s a group with potential but it’s lacking in experience and depth. In addition, playmakers need to be found at both the WR and TE positions. If the offensive line can come together, a strong running game should emerge helping the Trojans young quarterbacks find their footing. Look for USC to get hit with a rare home lose to Ohio State and another game in the first half of the Pac 10 slate.
California
The depth and talent in Berkeley are superior to all but USC within the conference. Had the Bears not done their best Van De Velde imitation in late October last season, we’d be talking about them as a legitimate threat to USC’s conference dominance. Instead, we’re left wondering if this programs psyche and confidence can be resuscitated. On paper, the team looks impressive. On offense, it starts up front where Cal sports the team’s deepest and most talented offensive line in the Tedford era. The running game should be strong as only the Trojans have a better stable of running backs. Playmakers need to be established at WR, but they will be helped by having a healthy fifth year senior and a dynamic sophomore both of whom have played well in the past throwing them the ball. The Bear’s defense should be improved with 8 returning starters. However, they have shifted to a 3-4 set, which could take time to master, and the run defense has to improve for Cal to play well. How this team deals with adversity will point to whether they challenge USC for the conference title as they did two years ago or end up near the bottom of the conference as they did last season.
Oregon:
This will be the Ducks best defensive team in many years. The secondary is as good as USC’s and they return the conference’s top sack master at DE. On offense, the Ducks offensive line will be among the nation’s best and will allow new stars to establish themselves at wide receiver and quarterback. The schedule is ugly and depth is a concern almost everywhere. Oregon will need to stay healthy, especially at quarterback, linebacker and defensive tackle if they plan to contend for the Pac 10 crown.
Arizona State:
Erickson made a great first impression and did so with only decent talent. The schedule is a lot less favorable this year and much of the talent that was there last year has left for the NFL. Carpenter is a good but not great quarterback and the offensive line only looks good when compared to UCLA’s. If the offensive line can find itself, there is talent at WR and RB. The defense came alive under Erickson and should again be solid if unspectacular. Bolden and Nolan are both studs in the secondary. ASU has three very good defensive lineman but little depth. Expect ASU to come back to earth as Erickson works to stockpile AAA talent.
Arizona:
It couldn’t happen to a less likable guy but Stoops will finally get over the hump this year. The offense will be solid with Grigsby as a run threat and Tuitama and a very strong WR corps mastering the spread offense. If they can stay healthy, the offensive line looks like the best crew Stoops has had. Last year’s defense disappointed but they should bounce back to the hard hitting bunch Stoops is known to develop. Depth is a concern almost everywhere but receiver and special teams play could be a nightmare.
Oregon State:
Mike Riley is a superb coach and despite having to rebuild his defense, this team will be competitive. Moevao will establish himself as a reliable P10 QB with a solid group of wide receivers led by Sammie Stroughter who could be the conference’s best wideout . The defense must replace nine starters but has some talent coming in to mitigate the losses. On both sides of the ball, the Beavers ability to create a run game and stop the opponents run will be the keys to the season
Stanford:
A staunch defense and a further injection of Harbaugh’s raw optimism will result in one more win that last season. Stanford has a very strong front seven on defense and they finally have a decent offensive line to help their offense. The Cardinal lacks any offensive playmakers including at quarterback and the secondary will be spotty. While it’s highly unlikely they will surprise USC or Cal again, this Stanford team will be more competitive and take another step forward in the Harbaugh rebuilding process
UCLA:
Rick Neuheisel is going to just have to grin and bear it. Despite a stout defense, UCLA does not have enough to overcome the conference’s most anemic offense. The Bruins offensive line will be reminiscent of the groups Stanford put out under Buddy Teevens and Walt Harris. Look for sacks galore and a non-existent running game. The talent and depth at QB is only marginally better which will waste a strong corps of running backs and wide receivers. The defense should keep games close but that won’t be enough to keep UCLA solidly in the bottom half in the conference.
Washington:
A brutal schedule will eviscerate any hope Ty Willingham had of keeping his job. His Dawgs will play hard and smart but that won’t be enough to overcome a lack of talent. Locker is an absolute stud at QB but injuries and a lack of playmakers around him will dull his impact. The defense is more talented than last years group but very young. Given UW’s recruiting momentum, Willingham would turn this around in another year but the UW faithful don’t have the patience.
Washington State:
Look for a better than expected offensive performance and an every bit as bad as advertised defense from the Cougars. They will upset a couple of folks at home but will endure some bad beatings on the road. New coach Paul Wullf will improve this teams discipline and consistency but unless he can recruit, he may have a short stay in Pullman.
Friday, August 15, 2008
Observations from Cal Scrimmage
Run offense: The offense looked good running ball and in fact until the tail end of the scrimmage when the offensive line was made up of 2nd and 3rd string players going against a similar group on defense, they were able to get significant push off the ball all day. Running inside was an easy four to five yards a pop while going outside almost routinely created space for the tailbacks to break off big plays. I was particularly impressed with the run blocking of Chris Guarnero, the sophomore center who looks to have made the shift to guard as he started with the first team on the left side and Mitchell Schwartz, the mammoth right tackle. To my eye, all of the TEs were effective in run blocking including Cameron Morrah, who had previously been described as an indifferent blocker. Jahvid Best did not participate as he was nursing a minor leg injury of some sort. Shane Vereen got the start and looked solid although I have to believe he is still not 100%. While far from pedestrian in his cuts and acceleration, Shane was noticeably less explosive. Tracy Slocum was very effective as well. Slocum runs with great body lean and a low center of gravity, making him tough to tackle.
Passing Offense: This was a mixed bag. Protection was decent but certainly not up to the standards of recent Cal offensive lines. The second team line especially struggled to contain the rush and the running backs had their share of problems with blitzing linebackers. All in all though, the QBs (even running with the 2nd and 3rd string offensive lines) were not overly harried. Neither Longshore or Riley played particularly well as both spent time with the 1st and 2nd teams. Longshore had good command of the huddle, stepped up nicely against the rush and checked off well on blitzes. However, he missed several wide open receivers with high throws. Riley wasn't as consistent with his ball as a few fluttered on him. He did thread the needle on several throws but he struggled to put together back to back positive plays. There were few big plays with the best being Brock Mansion's deep sideline throw to Marvin Jones. The receivers had a positive day in so far as I can't remember one ball being dropped in the scrimmage that wasn't forced out by a defender's hit. Against man coverage, there wasn't a lot of separation although Sean Young proved he understands how to find the soft spots against the zone repeatedly. The TEs had a nice day with Morrah, Smith and Anthony Miller all making nice catches on seam routes. All in all, I suspect this part of Cal's offense to take some time to come together. Getting Mike Tepper back on the offensive line will help with protection as will more time for guys like Schwartz and Guarnero to gel with their linemates.
Placekicking: This could continue to be a big weakness this year. Freshman David Seawright was more impressive on field goal tries than Jordan Kay but neither were stellar. Kay gets the ball deeper on kickoffs but to my eye Seawright has the bigger leg. David needs to hit the ball more consistently to get his kickoffs both high and deep.
Run Defense: This was not a good day for the Bears front seven against the run. As mentioned above, the offensive line consistently got good push on the defense and caught the outside linebackers blitzing on several plays to spring runs to the outside. Eddie Young had a rough day to my eye as did whomever the Bears had at NT. Derrick Hill eventually limped off the field and Kendrick Payne was very slow to get up after several plays late in the scrimmage. Worrell Williams missed the scrimmage. After Alex Mack was asked to take off the rest of the day, the run defense did get better but only slightly as the offensive line was still getting good push.
Pass Defense: This was a bright spot for Cal. Darian Hagen started opposite Syd Quan Thompson (who left the scrimmage early but I did not see if it was injury related) and played well. Bernard Hicks had a good day playing the ball in the air and in general coverage was tight. The defense struggled a bit with underneath passes in the two deep zone and they were aided by some missed throws from the QBs. The pass rush was solid with good push being brought by Owusu, Davis and Jordan as well as blitzing linebackers.
Punting: Bryan Anger is a rain maker. The guy absolutely kills the football. You needed a sun dial to time his hang time. Anger needs work in getting the ball off quicker and he wasn't super consistent with his ball striking but this guy is special.
Coverage teams: For the most part, kickoff coverage was very solid. Punt coverage less so.
Observations: I saw a lot of younger players who were quite impressive on both sides of the ball. Mychal Kendricks is very quick and aggressive and athletically jumps out at you. DJ Holt is HUGE and he is not afraid of contact. Both of these young players should be future stars at LB. Robert Mullins is an undersized linebacker but he has a nose for the ball. Ernest Owusu was very effective rushing the passer and was not easily pushed around on running plays. Marvin Jones has great size and fabulous hands. He's not as explosive as Boateng coming in and out of cuts, but he has a knack for getting open. Brock Mansion looked good and made some nice throws and several other players stood out for me including Justin Cheadle (powerful run blocker), Charles Satchell (very smooth and explosive), DJ Campbell, Dominic Galas, Cameron Jordan (He's HUGE), LaReylle Cunningham (He and Young were the most effective WRs) and Anthony Miller (blocking and catching the ball). I wanted to see who the obvious playmakers and leaders were on the field. Watching how they approached drills, the way they communicated with teammates, their play in the scrimmage, etc. Rulon Davis and Bernard Hicks stood out to me on defense and Alex Mack and Nate Longshore on offense.
Overall impressions: This wasn't the most intense scrimmage that I've seen and lacked some of the big plays and hard hitting of scrimmages in past year. The injury list was long and that certainly contributed but the challenges with the run defense and our passing offense will leave Tedford and his staff with plenty of work to do with the remaining time in camp.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
2008 Cal Football Preview - The Offense
System:
It remains to be seen how noticeable the difference will be between Frank Cignetti’s offensive system and play calling style and what Jeff Tedford has traditionally done. It’s clear that for the first time during his tenure at Cal that Tedford will truly delegate responsibility for the offense to someone else. All signs point to the differences between the two being minimal. Terminology will remain much the same and both Cignetti and Tedford have gone on record saying their philosophical approaches are nearly identical. Assuming that is the case, this is an offense that will start and end with the run. Cal wants to establish the run early, trigger their pass offense once the defense is thinking run and then when the Bears have a lead go back to the run to control the clock and keep the defense fresh. Word is that Cignetti has some preference to throw the ball more the TE and the backs than what we’ve seen Cal do the past couple of seasons.
Quarterbacks:
The simplest way to describe the Cal quarterback situation is simply that this is a position of depth and strength. I don’t believe Jeff Tedford would trade his top three quarterbacks for any other group in the conference. Cal has two quarterbacks who have proven they can win big games and they have a RS freshman who has been very impressive thus far in his career in Berkeley. Unlike last year, where the Cal staff felt they had a clear cut starter and then a drop off to a talented but very green backup, this season the coaches will know that they have two options either of which they will be comfortable starting. Nate Longshore has been much maligned after his less than stellar play last season after suffering a nagging high ankle injury. Despite solid pass protection and a trio of talented receivers, Longshore struggled at times after his injury, most noticeably in providing an offense heading south with the leadership it so desperately needed. Longshore can clearly play at a high level. He’s won big games at home (Oregon and UCLA at home in 2006 and Tennessee in 2007) as well as on the road (Oregon in 2007 and Texas A&M in the Holiday Bowl). Longshore has great size, a quick release and has complete mastery over the Cal offense and at times has shown off a tremendous touch, especially on the deep ball. He’s also shown himself to be an accurate passer and until last year’s injury, made few bad mistakes. His lack of mobility has resulted in fewer plays being made when his protection broke down or his receivers failed to get open and while he has a good arm, it’s not a cannon. Starting senior quarterbacks have been shown to have a high correlation to winning college football games and Longshore has tried to underline that thought by playing very well in the Spring and thus far in Summer camp. Kevin Riley enters his third year at Cal with all kinds of talent. Blessed with quick feet and a rocket arm, Riley plays the game with a swagger and has obvious command of the huddle. He has shown himself to thrive under adversity, leading an ill fated comeback against Oregon State in his first start and then a wonderful come from behind vistory against Air Force. Riley’s not been as consistent as Longshore as a practice player dating back to last season through the Spring and thus far into the Summer. However, the two times he’s had a chance to play when live bullets are flying, he has acquitted himself quite well. Brock Mansion will be the third quarterback regardless of the outcome of the competition. The future looks bright for Mansion who has similar size to Longshore yet much better mobility. He has picked up the Bears system quickly and with another year under his belt will cross the chasm to where the Cal coaches will be very comfortable that he can win games for this team. While the depth is a big bonus, it’s critical that one quarterback establish himself early in the season. I’d like to see leadership be overweighted by Tedford and Cignetti as they decide who will lead the offense. Longshore, despite his strong track record in 2006 and early 2007, has not shown himself to be a strong leader in clutch situations. His record when under adversity is far from ideal and he does not carry himself with the focus or self assuredness you want in your quarterback. That doesn’t mean Riley should get the nod. If Longshore continues to show more consistency through camp, he should start the game against MSU. If he falters, Riley will be more than ready to step in and take over. Regardless, both will almost certainly play against MSU which will do more to tell us who will best guide the offense in 2008.
Running Back:
Under Tedford, this has been a position loaded with talent and one that has not disappointed in performance. There is no reason to expect that to change this season. Cal has four talented tailbacks, three of whom will likely share the carries this year. Jahvid Best will be the starter and he replaces Desean Jackson as the Bears most dynamic playmaker. Blessed with tremendous speed and surprising toughness, Best should be an ESPN highlight staple by week four of the season. Best runs more physically than his 195lb frame would suggest and he showed last year that he is fearless (All Pac 10 special team gunner) and tough (breaking tackles on numerous occasions. Jahvid needs to become a more instinctual runner who understands how to set up his blockers and improve his vision and patience when running up the middle. His ability to catch the ball is a bonus and don’t be surprised to see Best line up on occasion as a slot receiver. Tracy Slocum will likely be Best’s primary backup. Slocum is 205+ lbs and built low to ground. He runs with his pads low and has good feet, allowing him to find or create creases where none are apparent. While he’s not explosively fast, Slocum has good quickness and gets to full speed in just a few steps. Slocum likes to run between the tackles and will likely see his fair share of short yardage opportunities. Shane Vereen will also help carry the load and he possesses many of the same skills that Best brings to the table. Vereen is even quicker in terms of his first step than Best and while he lacks Jahvid’s world class top end speed, Vereen is as fast a running back as the Bears have seen since Tarik Smith matriculated in Berkeley. Vereen is highly elusive with great hips and like Best possesses great hands. Shane needs to prove he can run physically and finish runs off but he will give Cal another big play offensive player. Covaughn Deboskie will likely redshirt. He has good size and great speed with similar receiving skills to Best and Vereen. A year to work on his body and to learn to run with a lower pad level will help him in the years to come.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends:
At wide out, the Bears are going to be focused on talent over experience as the latter is in short order with this group combining to have thirteen career catches total. It’s tough to know how the two deeps will play out, but depth will not be a problem nor is size as the Bears have a group of receivers whose average is size is well over 6’ and 200lbs. Mike Calvin has emerged as the teams likely number one pass catcher. The redshirt freshman dominated as a scout player last year and is a smooth route runner with consistent hands and the ability to use his body and leaping ability to go up and get balls. Sophomore Jeremy Ross is a physically strong receiver with good speed and a reputation as a run after catch threat. Last year, he failed to crack the rotation and is working to improve his consistency in running routes and catching the ball. Nyan Boateng, the junior transfer from Florida has some playing experience from his true freshman year in Gainesville where he played in five games and caught four balls. Boateng starred as a basketball player in New York City alongside current NBA player Sebastian Telfair and brings the receiving corps superb quickness and body control to go along with a tremendous physical build. Boateng’s hands have been inconsistent since arriving in Berkeley and he will need to improve his mental approach if he plans to star in the Pac 10. Sean Young enters his fifth year at Cal, having never cracked the rotation but he has arguably been the Bears best receiver thus fall in Camp. Young runs excellent route, has good hands and surprising athleticism. True freshman Marvin Jones is taking the #1 jersey and while he is a dynamic talent in his own right, he brings very different things to the Bears than previous #1, DeSean Jackson. Jones is 6’2” tall and while thin, is surprisingly strong. Not a speed burner, Jones still has the ability to stretch the field. Jones is very polished for a freshman and may crack the top four in the receiver rotation. JC transfer Verran Tucker came to camp a week late and is still playing catch up in terms of learning the offense. With a reputation as a speed burner, Tucker may represent the Bears best deep threat. Finally, LaReylle Cunningham is Cal’s leading returning receiver with all of ten career catches. Cunningham is lanky and dependable but is at an athletic deficiency relative to his position mates. Cameron Morrah will inherit the starting TE positions and gives the Bears a true receiving threat who can stretch the field with his speed. The only question is his ability to block but he is improving that aspect of his game at a rapid pace. Converted DE, Tad Smith will back him up. Smith is a physical player who should make the transition easily as he was a star TE in high school. Tad wowed folks with an outstanding Spring catching the ball but look for him to work more on running plays with Morrah being the receiving threat.
Offensive Line:
This could be Cal’s strongest position group on either offense or defense. With four players returning with starting experience and a very talented group of youngsters as backups, the Bears easily go 9 deep with players OL coach Jim Michalzik will feel comfortable seeing the field. Alex Mack is the leader of this group and the preseason All American and former high school wrestling champion is freakishly flexible and moves as well as any OL in the country. Named the Pac 10’s outstanding offensive lineman a season ago by the conference’s defensive lineman, Mack is a one man wrecking crew. Multiple times last year, Mack would beat his man only to then go down field and take out at least one and many times two more defenders. The tackle position has three outstanding options. Returning RT, Mike Tepper is slated to move to the left side. Tepper proved himself to be an excellent pass blocker after a bit of a rough start last year but is still improving in the run game. He injured his chest muscle earlier this Summer and will likely miss all of camp but should be back in time to see service against Michigan State in the opener. Flanking him is junior Chet Teofilo. Teofilo was primarily a backup last year before earning the start against Air Force in the Armed Services Bowl. Teofilo played extremely well in the bowl game and showed off quick feet to go along with a natural ability to push around his man in the run game. Mitchell Schwartz, the RS freshman, has been at least up to this point, the most impressive of Cal’s stellar 2007 offensive line recruiting haul. An absolutely huge man at 6’7” and 330 lbs, Schwartz gets the kind of leverage in run blocking that reminds some of current New England Patriot starting tackle and former Bear standout, Ryan O’Callaghan. Schwartz has all kinds of natural ability but he needs to work on his pass protection technique. At guard, Noris Malele has one spot locked down after starting all of last year and most of the 2006 season. Malele is unlikely to compete for all conference honors but is solid and reliable in both pass and run blocking. The spot opposite Malele is still wide open. Two former walk-ons, Mark Boskovich and Richard Fisher impressed in the Spring and entered camp as the likely starters. Boskovich is an excellent student who possesses great size. Fisher is undersized but has superior technique and has improve his play at a rapid pace. A wild card in the competition is Chris Guarnero, the backup to Alex Mack last year after earning the Scout team award in 2006 as the co-outstanding offensive player. Guarnero could start at center for many teams but barring an injury, he isn’t going to see the field at that position until Mack graduates. While Guarnero may be undersized as a guard at 280lbs, he has superb quickness and technique.
Overall:
This is a far better unit than most pundits realize. An experienced and deep offensive line is the key. Having two quarterbacks worthy of starting adds security especially with so many new faces at RB and WR. I suspect Cal will make more than its share of mental mistakes on offense with missed blitz pickups and dropped balls but those will diminish as the season progresses and will be overshadowed by the plethora of playmakers. Leadership is the big question. Can Longshore become the leader the team needs when trailing late in games? If not, will Riley step up his practice performance in order to earn his teammates and coaches respect? Beyond the QB, Jahvid Best and at least one of the receivers will need to establish themselves as go to guys. Don’t be surprised if Cameron Morrah becomes the team’s best third down and red zone option. Jeff Tedford has said he wants to play more players this year and this offensive squad has depth and talent across the board. The second team offense is arguably more talented than the starting team Tedford inherited when he first came to Berkeley.
It remains to be seen how noticeable the difference will be between Frank Cignetti’s offensive system and play calling style and what Jeff Tedford has traditionally done. It’s clear that for the first time during his tenure at Cal that Tedford will truly delegate responsibility for the offense to someone else. All signs point to the differences between the two being minimal. Terminology will remain much the same and both Cignetti and Tedford have gone on record saying their philosophical approaches are nearly identical. Assuming that is the case, this is an offense that will start and end with the run. Cal wants to establish the run early, trigger their pass offense once the defense is thinking run and then when the Bears have a lead go back to the run to control the clock and keep the defense fresh. Word is that Cignetti has some preference to throw the ball more the TE and the backs than what we’ve seen Cal do the past couple of seasons.
Quarterbacks:
The simplest way to describe the Cal quarterback situation is simply that this is a position of depth and strength. I don’t believe Jeff Tedford would trade his top three quarterbacks for any other group in the conference. Cal has two quarterbacks who have proven they can win big games and they have a RS freshman who has been very impressive thus far in his career in Berkeley. Unlike last year, where the Cal staff felt they had a clear cut starter and then a drop off to a talented but very green backup, this season the coaches will know that they have two options either of which they will be comfortable starting. Nate Longshore has been much maligned after his less than stellar play last season after suffering a nagging high ankle injury. Despite solid pass protection and a trio of talented receivers, Longshore struggled at times after his injury, most noticeably in providing an offense heading south with the leadership it so desperately needed. Longshore can clearly play at a high level. He’s won big games at home (Oregon and UCLA at home in 2006 and Tennessee in 2007) as well as on the road (Oregon in 2007 and Texas A&M in the Holiday Bowl). Longshore has great size, a quick release and has complete mastery over the Cal offense and at times has shown off a tremendous touch, especially on the deep ball. He’s also shown himself to be an accurate passer and until last year’s injury, made few bad mistakes. His lack of mobility has resulted in fewer plays being made when his protection broke down or his receivers failed to get open and while he has a good arm, it’s not a cannon. Starting senior quarterbacks have been shown to have a high correlation to winning college football games and Longshore has tried to underline that thought by playing very well in the Spring and thus far in Summer camp. Kevin Riley enters his third year at Cal with all kinds of talent. Blessed with quick feet and a rocket arm, Riley plays the game with a swagger and has obvious command of the huddle. He has shown himself to thrive under adversity, leading an ill fated comeback against Oregon State in his first start and then a wonderful come from behind vistory against Air Force. Riley’s not been as consistent as Longshore as a practice player dating back to last season through the Spring and thus far into the Summer. However, the two times he’s had a chance to play when live bullets are flying, he has acquitted himself quite well. Brock Mansion will be the third quarterback regardless of the outcome of the competition. The future looks bright for Mansion who has similar size to Longshore yet much better mobility. He has picked up the Bears system quickly and with another year under his belt will cross the chasm to where the Cal coaches will be very comfortable that he can win games for this team. While the depth is a big bonus, it’s critical that one quarterback establish himself early in the season. I’d like to see leadership be overweighted by Tedford and Cignetti as they decide who will lead the offense. Longshore, despite his strong track record in 2006 and early 2007, has not shown himself to be a strong leader in clutch situations. His record when under adversity is far from ideal and he does not carry himself with the focus or self assuredness you want in your quarterback. That doesn’t mean Riley should get the nod. If Longshore continues to show more consistency through camp, he should start the game against MSU. If he falters, Riley will be more than ready to step in and take over. Regardless, both will almost certainly play against MSU which will do more to tell us who will best guide the offense in 2008.
Running Back:
Under Tedford, this has been a position loaded with talent and one that has not disappointed in performance. There is no reason to expect that to change this season. Cal has four talented tailbacks, three of whom will likely share the carries this year. Jahvid Best will be the starter and he replaces Desean Jackson as the Bears most dynamic playmaker. Blessed with tremendous speed and surprising toughness, Best should be an ESPN highlight staple by week four of the season. Best runs more physically than his 195lb frame would suggest and he showed last year that he is fearless (All Pac 10 special team gunner) and tough (breaking tackles on numerous occasions. Jahvid needs to become a more instinctual runner who understands how to set up his blockers and improve his vision and patience when running up the middle. His ability to catch the ball is a bonus and don’t be surprised to see Best line up on occasion as a slot receiver. Tracy Slocum will likely be Best’s primary backup. Slocum is 205+ lbs and built low to ground. He runs with his pads low and has good feet, allowing him to find or create creases where none are apparent. While he’s not explosively fast, Slocum has good quickness and gets to full speed in just a few steps. Slocum likes to run between the tackles and will likely see his fair share of short yardage opportunities. Shane Vereen will also help carry the load and he possesses many of the same skills that Best brings to the table. Vereen is even quicker in terms of his first step than Best and while he lacks Jahvid’s world class top end speed, Vereen is as fast a running back as the Bears have seen since Tarik Smith matriculated in Berkeley. Vereen is highly elusive with great hips and like Best possesses great hands. Shane needs to prove he can run physically and finish runs off but he will give Cal another big play offensive player. Covaughn Deboskie will likely redshirt. He has good size and great speed with similar receiving skills to Best and Vereen. A year to work on his body and to learn to run with a lower pad level will help him in the years to come.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends:
At wide out, the Bears are going to be focused on talent over experience as the latter is in short order with this group combining to have thirteen career catches total. It’s tough to know how the two deeps will play out, but depth will not be a problem nor is size as the Bears have a group of receivers whose average is size is well over 6’ and 200lbs. Mike Calvin has emerged as the teams likely number one pass catcher. The redshirt freshman dominated as a scout player last year and is a smooth route runner with consistent hands and the ability to use his body and leaping ability to go up and get balls. Sophomore Jeremy Ross is a physically strong receiver with good speed and a reputation as a run after catch threat. Last year, he failed to crack the rotation and is working to improve his consistency in running routes and catching the ball. Nyan Boateng, the junior transfer from Florida has some playing experience from his true freshman year in Gainesville where he played in five games and caught four balls. Boateng starred as a basketball player in New York City alongside current NBA player Sebastian Telfair and brings the receiving corps superb quickness and body control to go along with a tremendous physical build. Boateng’s hands have been inconsistent since arriving in Berkeley and he will need to improve his mental approach if he plans to star in the Pac 10. Sean Young enters his fifth year at Cal, having never cracked the rotation but he has arguably been the Bears best receiver thus fall in Camp. Young runs excellent route, has good hands and surprising athleticism. True freshman Marvin Jones is taking the #1 jersey and while he is a dynamic talent in his own right, he brings very different things to the Bears than previous #1, DeSean Jackson. Jones is 6’2” tall and while thin, is surprisingly strong. Not a speed burner, Jones still has the ability to stretch the field. Jones is very polished for a freshman and may crack the top four in the receiver rotation. JC transfer Verran Tucker came to camp a week late and is still playing catch up in terms of learning the offense. With a reputation as a speed burner, Tucker may represent the Bears best deep threat. Finally, LaReylle Cunningham is Cal’s leading returning receiver with all of ten career catches. Cunningham is lanky and dependable but is at an athletic deficiency relative to his position mates. Cameron Morrah will inherit the starting TE positions and gives the Bears a true receiving threat who can stretch the field with his speed. The only question is his ability to block but he is improving that aspect of his game at a rapid pace. Converted DE, Tad Smith will back him up. Smith is a physical player who should make the transition easily as he was a star TE in high school. Tad wowed folks with an outstanding Spring catching the ball but look for him to work more on running plays with Morrah being the receiving threat.
Offensive Line:
This could be Cal’s strongest position group on either offense or defense. With four players returning with starting experience and a very talented group of youngsters as backups, the Bears easily go 9 deep with players OL coach Jim Michalzik will feel comfortable seeing the field. Alex Mack is the leader of this group and the preseason All American and former high school wrestling champion is freakishly flexible and moves as well as any OL in the country. Named the Pac 10’s outstanding offensive lineman a season ago by the conference’s defensive lineman, Mack is a one man wrecking crew. Multiple times last year, Mack would beat his man only to then go down field and take out at least one and many times two more defenders. The tackle position has three outstanding options. Returning RT, Mike Tepper is slated to move to the left side. Tepper proved himself to be an excellent pass blocker after a bit of a rough start last year but is still improving in the run game. He injured his chest muscle earlier this Summer and will likely miss all of camp but should be back in time to see service against Michigan State in the opener. Flanking him is junior Chet Teofilo. Teofilo was primarily a backup last year before earning the start against Air Force in the Armed Services Bowl. Teofilo played extremely well in the bowl game and showed off quick feet to go along with a natural ability to push around his man in the run game. Mitchell Schwartz, the RS freshman, has been at least up to this point, the most impressive of Cal’s stellar 2007 offensive line recruiting haul. An absolutely huge man at 6’7” and 330 lbs, Schwartz gets the kind of leverage in run blocking that reminds some of current New England Patriot starting tackle and former Bear standout, Ryan O’Callaghan. Schwartz has all kinds of natural ability but he needs to work on his pass protection technique. At guard, Noris Malele has one spot locked down after starting all of last year and most of the 2006 season. Malele is unlikely to compete for all conference honors but is solid and reliable in both pass and run blocking. The spot opposite Malele is still wide open. Two former walk-ons, Mark Boskovich and Richard Fisher impressed in the Spring and entered camp as the likely starters. Boskovich is an excellent student who possesses great size. Fisher is undersized but has superior technique and has improve his play at a rapid pace. A wild card in the competition is Chris Guarnero, the backup to Alex Mack last year after earning the Scout team award in 2006 as the co-outstanding offensive player. Guarnero could start at center for many teams but barring an injury, he isn’t going to see the field at that position until Mack graduates. While Guarnero may be undersized as a guard at 280lbs, he has superb quickness and technique.
Overall:
This is a far better unit than most pundits realize. An experienced and deep offensive line is the key. Having two quarterbacks worthy of starting adds security especially with so many new faces at RB and WR. I suspect Cal will make more than its share of mental mistakes on offense with missed blitz pickups and dropped balls but those will diminish as the season progresses and will be overshadowed by the plethora of playmakers. Leadership is the big question. Can Longshore become the leader the team needs when trailing late in games? If not, will Riley step up his practice performance in order to earn his teammates and coaches respect? Beyond the QB, Jahvid Best and at least one of the receivers will need to establish themselves as go to guys. Don’t be surprised if Cameron Morrah becomes the team’s best third down and red zone option. Jeff Tedford has said he wants to play more players this year and this offensive squad has depth and talent across the board. The second team offense is arguably more talented than the starting team Tedford inherited when he first came to Berkeley.
Thursday, August 7, 2008
2008 Cal Football Preview - The Defense
THE SYSTEM -
Bob Gregory's defenses play a style that in many ways mirrors the offensive system Jeff Tedford has in place. As on offense, it starts with the running game. Gregory wants to take away the opponent's ability to run the ball and to do so is willing to put eight men in a box and leave his cornerbacks on an island. In obvious passing situations, Gregory prefers not to blitz and minimize big plays with a cover 2 zone. The idea is to give up yards but not points. Where the Cal defense will take chances is in forcing turnovers and when the opponent is in the red zone, which is where you will see the Bears blitz more often than any other time.
Coming off a year when running on the Bears was easier than scoring with Lindsay Lohan, Cal is moving to a 3-4 alignment designed first and foremost to shore up the porous run defense. It also allows Cal to leverage its experience and depth at the linebacker position while masking a potential weakness on the defensive line. While this switch is happening, don't be surprised to see the Bears play with a 4 man line on 20%+ of their defensive snaps.
The overall talent level of Cal's defense under Jeff Tedford has never been as high as it has been on the offensive side of the ball. That said, this years defense has the highest level of athleticism and more specifically speed than any other in Tedford's tenure. With the Bears returning nine players who started last year, there is enough experience here to raise expectations considerably. While there's plenty of reasons for optimism, until Cal can find a reliable nose tackle and some semblance of a pass rush, all bets are off. Despite the returning experience, the bulk of depth is young and as a result, I expect this years defense to be far better at the end of the year than it is in the beginning.
Position Breakdown:
DEFENSIVE LINE -
The single most important player on the team, offense or defense this season may be Rulon Davis. Davis is the most talented defensive player on the team, period. He is a defensive end in the mold of Reggie White or Bruce Smith. He’s large at 6'5" and 280lbs and is very quick and explosive. He played well when healthy last season and was nigh unstoppable this spring. He’s big enough to anchor the corner and play the run while also being Cal’s best pass rushing lineman.
Tyson Alualu enters his junior year as a player with all the talent in the world but who has yet to put it all together. He plays with great leverage, is hard to move around and has a good first step. He’s also 295 pounds. Up until now, he hasn’t proven himself as a pass rusher and although he’s big and strong, his technique has been shaky. Look for Tyson to start opposite Davis at the other DE spot. Cameron Jordan was a big surprise last year. He played both at DE and DT but in the 3-4 will definitely play at end. If his technique can catch up to his ability, he should take a big step forward backing up Davis. Ernest Owusu is a RS Frosh with a body by Adonis and a lighting quick first step. He played very well in the Spring and should be a future pass rushing star. Look for him to get spot duty as a pass rusher especially when the Bears go to a 4 man line.
The challenge is in the middle. The Bears don’t have a returning player whose a pure NT. Mika Kane appeared to be the team’s second most effective DL behind Malele last year but given the dismal performance of this position group, that is faint praise. Kane has a lot of talent but has not played consistently hard. As a senior, the team will look to his leadership. Derrick Hill has very quick feet and hands and has a naturally low center of gravity. He improved markedly last season, playing very effectively as the NT in the 3-4 against Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl. He doesn’t have NT size or strength and prefers to get off blocks rather than occupy opposing lineman which is the job of a NT in a 3-4.
Mike Costanzo, to my eye, was the Bears quickest and most aggressive DL in Fall Camp back in 2006. After sitting out a year with an injury, he played sparingly last season and still doesn’t seem fully recovered from his knee injury. While he will factor in the rotation at NT given depth issues, it's unclear whether his knee will allow him to fulfill his promise out of high school. In fact, the third NT on the depth chart by the end of the season may well be true freshman Kendrick Payne. Payne is built like a NT with a lower body reminiscent of former Bear great, Brandon Mebane. Payne enrolled early and surprised people with his play in the Spring. He needs to add 10-15 pounds and build on his natural strength. He’s the type of immovable object that can force offenses to double team him allowing Cal’s LB crew to clean up. For all the problems Cal had on the line last year, if this group can stay healthy, the team should be able to rotate 8 very talented players, keeping everyone fresh. With only two seniors in the group, this is an area that will continue to get stronger as the group gains experience.
LINEBACKER -
Linebackers are perceived by many to be an area of strength. While the Bears return three players who have played a lot of football in their careers, none of them have become consistently dominant performers. The hope is that in their senior years, the game slows down for them and their instincts get honed to the point that they can play quickly without having to think too much. Zach Follet is a very quick if undersized WLB whose very effective rushing the passer. He has the speed to stop RBs from turning the corner as well. Follett is the one proven big play defender on the team but he will need to improve his tackling and coverage skills if he wants to become an All P10 performer.
Worrell Williams, although he plays inside and weighs 250+ may be the teams fastest linebacker. He uses that speed effectively when dropping into pass coverage and chasing down plays sideline to sideline. Williams is not the most instinctual player and he has to get quicker at reading plays to maximize his talent. Despite his size, he’s also needs to get better getting off blockers which will become more of a challenge for him in the Bears new 3-4 scheme.
Anthony Felder, in my opinion, was our most consistent linebacker last season and is the teams best open field tackler. Lanky with good but not great quickness, Felder plays well in space and does a good job using his hands to get off blockers. He hasn’t shown an ability to attack up field and he will need to get more aggressive this season playing in the middle of the 3-4 alongside Williams. The battle at the other outside linebacker is between Eddie Young and Devon Bishop. Young is quick but has yet to prove he can be an every down linebacker. Bishop may be the least athletic of the group but he is heady and plays with good technique. Mike Mohammed played a lot last year, moves well and is a good tackler, in many ways reminiscent of Anthony Felder. He will back up Felder and Williams inside as well as Bishop/Young on the outside.
DJ Holt is a redshirt freshman who was the MVP of the scout team defense last year. At 255 pounds, he will back up both Williams and Felder and should get considerable playing time. Mychal Kendricks is a true freshman with All American type athleticism. Look for he and Holt to be special teams stars this year.
DEFENSIVE BACKS -
In the secondary, it all starts with Syd Quan Thompson. SQT had high expectations going into last season and although he didn’t come up with many interceptions, he was clearly the Bears best cover man and to my eye, one of the best cover men in the P10. Blessed with great quickness and very fluid hips, SQT is also a sure tackler who loves to come up and play the run. A future NFL player, if the Bears can muster a decent pass rush, SQT should vie for All Pac 10 honors this season.
Opposite SQT at CB is Chris Conte. At 6’3” tall and with very good hips, Conte can match up well with the P10s taller receivers. He is a good tackler and plays with solid technique but was often burned by quicker receivers using double moves. It’s not clear that Conte is a better CB than safety but his versatility makes him a valuable player. Darian Hagen will give Conte a good run for his starting CB position and should end up no worse than the nickel back. Hagan has similar athletic ability to SQT but has struggled with his confidence and consistency. Charles Amadi is also in the mix at corner.
Bernard Hicks will move to the FS position and I believe this is a great move. Hicks played well as a FS his sophomore season showing off very good ball skills when passes are in the air. Hicks is not a great cover safety and needs to improve his tackling skills but playing centerfield suits him. Brett Johnson will be his back up.
At the rover position, Marcus Ezeff comes back after a superb sophomore year. Ezeff has a nose for the ball and is a sure tackler. A guy who plays the game at full speed all the time and isn’t afraid to attack up the field, Ezeff has AP10 potential. The key is for Marcus to stay healthy as the backups at this position are young and unproven.
OVERALL -
On paper, this defense should be good and the move to a 3-4 seemingly will mitigate the risks around our run defense and allow Cal to leverage its depth and experience. I see the key being leadership. Rulon Davis and SQT are the obvious candidates as both are superb players who go all out in practice and back down from no one on the field. Despite those two, the psyche of the rest of this group is very much in question after last years dismal performance. It would seem obvious that one or more of the senior linebackers would step up and build the groups confidence and trust and certainly Williams and Follett are on record as saying they will do just that. While I hope that is the case, neither has been natural leaders their first three years and while the light bulb can go off at any time, until we see it on the field under adversity, I'll remain a skeptic.
Bob Gregory's defenses play a style that in many ways mirrors the offensive system Jeff Tedford has in place. As on offense, it starts with the running game. Gregory wants to take away the opponent's ability to run the ball and to do so is willing to put eight men in a box and leave his cornerbacks on an island. In obvious passing situations, Gregory prefers not to blitz and minimize big plays with a cover 2 zone. The idea is to give up yards but not points. Where the Cal defense will take chances is in forcing turnovers and when the opponent is in the red zone, which is where you will see the Bears blitz more often than any other time.
Coming off a year when running on the Bears was easier than scoring with Lindsay Lohan, Cal is moving to a 3-4 alignment designed first and foremost to shore up the porous run defense. It also allows Cal to leverage its experience and depth at the linebacker position while masking a potential weakness on the defensive line. While this switch is happening, don't be surprised to see the Bears play with a 4 man line on 20%+ of their defensive snaps.
The overall talent level of Cal's defense under Jeff Tedford has never been as high as it has been on the offensive side of the ball. That said, this years defense has the highest level of athleticism and more specifically speed than any other in Tedford's tenure. With the Bears returning nine players who started last year, there is enough experience here to raise expectations considerably. While there's plenty of reasons for optimism, until Cal can find a reliable nose tackle and some semblance of a pass rush, all bets are off. Despite the returning experience, the bulk of depth is young and as a result, I expect this years defense to be far better at the end of the year than it is in the beginning.
Position Breakdown:
DEFENSIVE LINE -
The single most important player on the team, offense or defense this season may be Rulon Davis. Davis is the most talented defensive player on the team, period. He is a defensive end in the mold of Reggie White or Bruce Smith. He’s large at 6'5" and 280lbs and is very quick and explosive. He played well when healthy last season and was nigh unstoppable this spring. He’s big enough to anchor the corner and play the run while also being Cal’s best pass rushing lineman.
Tyson Alualu enters his junior year as a player with all the talent in the world but who has yet to put it all together. He plays with great leverage, is hard to move around and has a good first step. He’s also 295 pounds. Up until now, he hasn’t proven himself as a pass rusher and although he’s big and strong, his technique has been shaky. Look for Tyson to start opposite Davis at the other DE spot. Cameron Jordan was a big surprise last year. He played both at DE and DT but in the 3-4 will definitely play at end. If his technique can catch up to his ability, he should take a big step forward backing up Davis. Ernest Owusu is a RS Frosh with a body by Adonis and a lighting quick first step. He played very well in the Spring and should be a future pass rushing star. Look for him to get spot duty as a pass rusher especially when the Bears go to a 4 man line.
The challenge is in the middle. The Bears don’t have a returning player whose a pure NT. Mika Kane appeared to be the team’s second most effective DL behind Malele last year but given the dismal performance of this position group, that is faint praise. Kane has a lot of talent but has not played consistently hard. As a senior, the team will look to his leadership. Derrick Hill has very quick feet and hands and has a naturally low center of gravity. He improved markedly last season, playing very effectively as the NT in the 3-4 against Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl. He doesn’t have NT size or strength and prefers to get off blocks rather than occupy opposing lineman which is the job of a NT in a 3-4.
Mike Costanzo, to my eye, was the Bears quickest and most aggressive DL in Fall Camp back in 2006. After sitting out a year with an injury, he played sparingly last season and still doesn’t seem fully recovered from his knee injury. While he will factor in the rotation at NT given depth issues, it's unclear whether his knee will allow him to fulfill his promise out of high school. In fact, the third NT on the depth chart by the end of the season may well be true freshman Kendrick Payne. Payne is built like a NT with a lower body reminiscent of former Bear great, Brandon Mebane. Payne enrolled early and surprised people with his play in the Spring. He needs to add 10-15 pounds and build on his natural strength. He’s the type of immovable object that can force offenses to double team him allowing Cal’s LB crew to clean up. For all the problems Cal had on the line last year, if this group can stay healthy, the team should be able to rotate 8 very talented players, keeping everyone fresh. With only two seniors in the group, this is an area that will continue to get stronger as the group gains experience.
LINEBACKER -
Linebackers are perceived by many to be an area of strength. While the Bears return three players who have played a lot of football in their careers, none of them have become consistently dominant performers. The hope is that in their senior years, the game slows down for them and their instincts get honed to the point that they can play quickly without having to think too much. Zach Follet is a very quick if undersized WLB whose very effective rushing the passer. He has the speed to stop RBs from turning the corner as well. Follett is the one proven big play defender on the team but he will need to improve his tackling and coverage skills if he wants to become an All P10 performer.
Worrell Williams, although he plays inside and weighs 250+ may be the teams fastest linebacker. He uses that speed effectively when dropping into pass coverage and chasing down plays sideline to sideline. Williams is not the most instinctual player and he has to get quicker at reading plays to maximize his talent. Despite his size, he’s also needs to get better getting off blockers which will become more of a challenge for him in the Bears new 3-4 scheme.
Anthony Felder, in my opinion, was our most consistent linebacker last season and is the teams best open field tackler. Lanky with good but not great quickness, Felder plays well in space and does a good job using his hands to get off blockers. He hasn’t shown an ability to attack up field and he will need to get more aggressive this season playing in the middle of the 3-4 alongside Williams. The battle at the other outside linebacker is between Eddie Young and Devon Bishop. Young is quick but has yet to prove he can be an every down linebacker. Bishop may be the least athletic of the group but he is heady and plays with good technique. Mike Mohammed played a lot last year, moves well and is a good tackler, in many ways reminiscent of Anthony Felder. He will back up Felder and Williams inside as well as Bishop/Young on the outside.
DJ Holt is a redshirt freshman who was the MVP of the scout team defense last year. At 255 pounds, he will back up both Williams and Felder and should get considerable playing time. Mychal Kendricks is a true freshman with All American type athleticism. Look for he and Holt to be special teams stars this year.
DEFENSIVE BACKS -
In the secondary, it all starts with Syd Quan Thompson. SQT had high expectations going into last season and although he didn’t come up with many interceptions, he was clearly the Bears best cover man and to my eye, one of the best cover men in the P10. Blessed with great quickness and very fluid hips, SQT is also a sure tackler who loves to come up and play the run. A future NFL player, if the Bears can muster a decent pass rush, SQT should vie for All Pac 10 honors this season.
Opposite SQT at CB is Chris Conte. At 6’3” tall and with very good hips, Conte can match up well with the P10s taller receivers. He is a good tackler and plays with solid technique but was often burned by quicker receivers using double moves. It’s not clear that Conte is a better CB than safety but his versatility makes him a valuable player. Darian Hagen will give Conte a good run for his starting CB position and should end up no worse than the nickel back. Hagan has similar athletic ability to SQT but has struggled with his confidence and consistency. Charles Amadi is also in the mix at corner.
Bernard Hicks will move to the FS position and I believe this is a great move. Hicks played well as a FS his sophomore season showing off very good ball skills when passes are in the air. Hicks is not a great cover safety and needs to improve his tackling skills but playing centerfield suits him. Brett Johnson will be his back up.
At the rover position, Marcus Ezeff comes back after a superb sophomore year. Ezeff has a nose for the ball and is a sure tackler. A guy who plays the game at full speed all the time and isn’t afraid to attack up the field, Ezeff has AP10 potential. The key is for Marcus to stay healthy as the backups at this position are young and unproven.
OVERALL -
On paper, this defense should be good and the move to a 3-4 seemingly will mitigate the risks around our run defense and allow Cal to leverage its depth and experience. I see the key being leadership. Rulon Davis and SQT are the obvious candidates as both are superb players who go all out in practice and back down from no one on the field. Despite those two, the psyche of the rest of this group is very much in question after last years dismal performance. It would seem obvious that one or more of the senior linebackers would step up and build the groups confidence and trust and certainly Williams and Follett are on record as saying they will do just that. While I hope that is the case, neither has been natural leaders their first three years and while the light bulb can go off at any time, until we see it on the field under adversity, I'll remain a skeptic.
A definitive interview with Tedford
On what went wrong last season and what's going to change. I apologize if you cannot read this without a premium Scout or ESPN Insider subscription but it's too good of an article not to share. Kudos to Jim McGill who got Jeff Tedford to open up more than he has with any of the other beat writers.
http://www.bearinsider.com/news/story.php?article=36
http://www.bearinsider.com/news/story.php?article=36
Sunday, August 3, 2008
Football is in the air
As I write this, the 2008 Cal football team is checking into camp and will kick off practice tomorrow evening. Exciting times for Bear fans as hope springs eternal. But before we turn our thoughts to what this Fall will bring, it's worth taking one last look back at the debacle that was last season's football meltdown.
Much has been written about the team’s lack of leadership, the quarterback controversy and even Jeff Tedford's epiphany about giving up play calling duties. It's impossible to know exactly what happened, but based on some insights gleaned from folks who should know, a few things feel obvious:
1.) For whatever reason, the teams psyche was very brittle. Once the Bears lost to Oregon State, the team went from believing it was bullet proof to wondering if it was good at all. Moreover, the team had some sort of perfectionist death wish. The one loss was interpreted as the end of the world by the players as opposed to a speed bump. If you go back and watch the UCLA and ASU games again, you see a team pressing, one in which players weren't trusting one another (as evidenced by guys freelancing) both of which led to a host of mental mistakes. It was as if the team was defined more by arrogance than confidence. Confidence welcomes adversity and arrogance pretends it doesn't exist
2.) The leadership issue has been beaten into the ground but almost all of the discussion seems to leave out the specifics. The truth is that leaders are the best players on the team, the guys whom everyone else looks to when times get tough. For Cal last year, the clear best player was DeSean Jackson, who personified arrogance. Not only could the team not rely on him to step up when times were tough (save for his wonderful performance in Eugene), he was a catalyst to exacerbating problems by criticizing teammates without cause and furthering the quarterback controversy to the point where it divided the team. The most important player on defense last year was a guy who could not stay on the field, Matt Malele. When Malele was healthy enough to play, Cal stopped the run, when he was on the side line, teams ran against us at will. It wasn't just the talent disparity between himself and other DTs on the team (the gap was wide) but the lack of confidence the team had in any one else playing the position.
3.) A football team is defined not by its best player but its worst. A weak link in football gets exposed more often than Lindsay Lohan. Cal had two glaring weaknesses, at DT when Malele was not in the game and at place kicker. Our inability to stop the run was embarrassing as was Jordan Kay's propensity to hook half his kicks. If Malele plays healthy for the season and Kay hits 75% of his kicks instead of 50%, this team finishes with 9 or 10 wins. It really is that simple.
4.) What about the QB controversy? Longshore had a very good sophomore season and was playing well (albeit not as well as the season prior) in leading Cal to an undefeated start last year. When he got hurt, the Bears were in a tough spot. Riley had beaten out the more experienced backup Kyle Reed, who subsequently transferred, but beating out Reed does not equate to earning his head coaches full confidence. Riley is clearly a mega talent, greet feet, quick release, strong arm, all kinds of intangibles. But last October, he was a young man who the coaches perceived as cocky and unprepared. Riley was not a film fanatic nor was he the first to arrive or the last to leave for QB meetings. His grasp of the offense was more limited than fans understand. Despite that, he played well against Oregon State, including the spirited 4th quarter comeback. At least, that's how it looked to fans. The coaches had a different view. Riley did not do a good job with his progressions and reads. He flat out called the wrong play on several occasions and further cemented the coaches perception that he was talented but not well prepared. The choice was now a hobbled QB who knew the system cold and was a proven winner vs. a very talented and healthy young QB who had yet to show the maturity or the grasp of the system that is often so essential in college football. Tedford chose the former and thus we were all treated to Nate playing poorly and the team’s wide receivers going into open revolt over Riley not being on the field. Might the team have performed better if Riley had played all the games after Oregon State? Who knows? regardless, it wasn't nearly as easy a decision as fans wanted it to be. To Riley's credit, the light went on for him after the Stanford loss and he responded by buckling down and acting like a starting QB prior to the AF game.
I find ALL of the above very disturbing about what it says about our program. Let me preface this by saying that Jeff Tedford has to be recognized as a saviour to the football program and while he's not above criticism, it needs to be done with the relative understanding that we wouldn't even have the high class problem of watching a #2 ranked team melt down without him. If he were to leave this program, Cal would go so fast in reverse you wouldn't have time to say "tomholmoekeithgilbertson" before we were looking at 5 win seasons as a huge success.
With that out of the way, there are reasons to be worried. I'm concerned that a team as talented and experienced as last years team with a coach as accomplished as Tedford could literally give up against UW on its way to six losses in seven games. I'm concerned about the apparent lack of awareness of the leadership problem before the season began and moreover, the inability to address it when it made itself so abundantly clear during the season. Is the staff so stubborn and/or so wedded to a system of teaching and managing these kids that it cannot react whatsoever when the unexpected occurs? When you have wonderful talents with huge attitudes like DeSean or a complete lack of depth at a critical position (as we did at DL), can we see these proactively and manage them in a way that may not get us a perfect season but avoids the team playing WELL below its potential? I don't know if any of these issues are endemic to the program. I choose to believe they are not. Tedford's decision to give up his play calling duties speaks to a leader who understands he's too far into the details and not minding the pulse of his team. The right players this year are speaking about leadership - Follett, Davis and Mack are clearly three of the cornerstones fo the team as the best and most important players on the field and they are on record that they want to be looked at when things go awry. Tedford's off season reading included books on finding criteria more important than pure talent to judge players which may be a reaction to his mismanagement of DeSean. Tedford is a high integrity figure who knows how to teach football players to excel, who has recruited tremendous talent despite our woeful facilities and whose players graduate. He is hyper focused on succeeding and I believe will do whatever is necessary to overcome his own shortcomings. I hope last year stays with JT and his staff for the rest of their lives. Mistakes are always more instructive than success and the learning opportunity last seasons disappointment presents is huge.
Go Bears!
Much has been written about the team’s lack of leadership, the quarterback controversy and even Jeff Tedford's epiphany about giving up play calling duties. It's impossible to know exactly what happened, but based on some insights gleaned from folks who should know, a few things feel obvious:
1.) For whatever reason, the teams psyche was very brittle. Once the Bears lost to Oregon State, the team went from believing it was bullet proof to wondering if it was good at all. Moreover, the team had some sort of perfectionist death wish. The one loss was interpreted as the end of the world by the players as opposed to a speed bump. If you go back and watch the UCLA and ASU games again, you see a team pressing, one in which players weren't trusting one another (as evidenced by guys freelancing) both of which led to a host of mental mistakes. It was as if the team was defined more by arrogance than confidence. Confidence welcomes adversity and arrogance pretends it doesn't exist
2.) The leadership issue has been beaten into the ground but almost all of the discussion seems to leave out the specifics. The truth is that leaders are the best players on the team, the guys whom everyone else looks to when times get tough. For Cal last year, the clear best player was DeSean Jackson, who personified arrogance. Not only could the team not rely on him to step up when times were tough (save for his wonderful performance in Eugene), he was a catalyst to exacerbating problems by criticizing teammates without cause and furthering the quarterback controversy to the point where it divided the team. The most important player on defense last year was a guy who could not stay on the field, Matt Malele. When Malele was healthy enough to play, Cal stopped the run, when he was on the side line, teams ran against us at will. It wasn't just the talent disparity between himself and other DTs on the team (the gap was wide) but the lack of confidence the team had in any one else playing the position.
3.) A football team is defined not by its best player but its worst. A weak link in football gets exposed more often than Lindsay Lohan. Cal had two glaring weaknesses, at DT when Malele was not in the game and at place kicker. Our inability to stop the run was embarrassing as was Jordan Kay's propensity to hook half his kicks. If Malele plays healthy for the season and Kay hits 75% of his kicks instead of 50%, this team finishes with 9 or 10 wins. It really is that simple.
4.) What about the QB controversy? Longshore had a very good sophomore season and was playing well (albeit not as well as the season prior) in leading Cal to an undefeated start last year. When he got hurt, the Bears were in a tough spot. Riley had beaten out the more experienced backup Kyle Reed, who subsequently transferred, but beating out Reed does not equate to earning his head coaches full confidence. Riley is clearly a mega talent, greet feet, quick release, strong arm, all kinds of intangibles. But last October, he was a young man who the coaches perceived as cocky and unprepared. Riley was not a film fanatic nor was he the first to arrive or the last to leave for QB meetings. His grasp of the offense was more limited than fans understand. Despite that, he played well against Oregon State, including the spirited 4th quarter comeback. At least, that's how it looked to fans. The coaches had a different view. Riley did not do a good job with his progressions and reads. He flat out called the wrong play on several occasions and further cemented the coaches perception that he was talented but not well prepared. The choice was now a hobbled QB who knew the system cold and was a proven winner vs. a very talented and healthy young QB who had yet to show the maturity or the grasp of the system that is often so essential in college football. Tedford chose the former and thus we were all treated to Nate playing poorly and the team’s wide receivers going into open revolt over Riley not being on the field. Might the team have performed better if Riley had played all the games after Oregon State? Who knows? regardless, it wasn't nearly as easy a decision as fans wanted it to be. To Riley's credit, the light went on for him after the Stanford loss and he responded by buckling down and acting like a starting QB prior to the AF game.
I find ALL of the above very disturbing about what it says about our program. Let me preface this by saying that Jeff Tedford has to be recognized as a saviour to the football program and while he's not above criticism, it needs to be done with the relative understanding that we wouldn't even have the high class problem of watching a #2 ranked team melt down without him. If he were to leave this program, Cal would go so fast in reverse you wouldn't have time to say "tomholmoekeithgilbertson" before we were looking at 5 win seasons as a huge success.
With that out of the way, there are reasons to be worried. I'm concerned that a team as talented and experienced as last years team with a coach as accomplished as Tedford could literally give up against UW on its way to six losses in seven games. I'm concerned about the apparent lack of awareness of the leadership problem before the season began and moreover, the inability to address it when it made itself so abundantly clear during the season. Is the staff so stubborn and/or so wedded to a system of teaching and managing these kids that it cannot react whatsoever when the unexpected occurs? When you have wonderful talents with huge attitudes like DeSean or a complete lack of depth at a critical position (as we did at DL), can we see these proactively and manage them in a way that may not get us a perfect season but avoids the team playing WELL below its potential? I don't know if any of these issues are endemic to the program. I choose to believe they are not. Tedford's decision to give up his play calling duties speaks to a leader who understands he's too far into the details and not minding the pulse of his team. The right players this year are speaking about leadership - Follett, Davis and Mack are clearly three of the cornerstones fo the team as the best and most important players on the field and they are on record that they want to be looked at when things go awry. Tedford's off season reading included books on finding criteria more important than pure talent to judge players which may be a reaction to his mismanagement of DeSean. Tedford is a high integrity figure who knows how to teach football players to excel, who has recruited tremendous talent despite our woeful facilities and whose players graduate. He is hyper focused on succeeding and I believe will do whatever is necessary to overcome his own shortcomings. I hope last year stays with JT and his staff for the rest of their lives. Mistakes are always more instructive than success and the learning opportunity last seasons disappointment presents is huge.
Go Bears!
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