Friday, March 28, 2008

The Candidate List

The cream of the crop:

Jamie Dixon (University of Pittsburgh):

Pro: Dixon’s first four years as a head coach have been incredibly successful. He picked up where Ben Howland left off and if anything Pitt has become an even stronger program. Having learned from Howland, arguably the top coach in the country at the moment, Dixon knows what it is to recruit and win in a BCS conference. Dixon has a system and recruits players to fit that system.
Con: Dixon’s Pitt teams are built around rough and tough defense and have never been described as having a fan or recruit friendly offense. Not known as a great recruiter, he finds kids who fit his system and rarely goes after elite national players
Bottom Line: Dixon is the most proven commodity who is likely to be interested in Cal. He should be right at if not at the very top of Sandy’s list

Anthony Grant (Virginia Commonwealth University)
Pro: – Has taken VCU from a middle of the road mid-major team to one of the most feared smaller schools in the country in two short years. His record is startlingly good: 52-15 overall and 31-5 in conference games. Was a longtime assistant to Billy Donovan at Florida and briefly was Florida’s head coach when Donovan announced he was headed to the NBA before quickly changing his mind. Known as a marvelous recruiter and a great offensive coach, his VCU teams play a very crowd and recruit pleasing fast paced style
Con: Limited experience as a head coach creates question marks as to how he will project as a head man at a BCS conference program. Will his up and down style work well in the defensive minded Pac 10 conference?
Bottom Line: He would be a great fit for Cal. His experience at Florida gives him the roadmap for success in Berkeley. He’s the type of pied piper recruiter who can pull the best talent from LA and Seattle while keeping NorCal’s finest at home. His style of play would put butts in the seats at Haas. Rumor has it that LSU wants him and he is asking for big money. A lifetime resident of the East Coast, it’s unclear how attractive Cal would be to him.

Jay Wright (Villanova University)
Pro: Proven winner as a head coach at both Hofstra and now Villanova. Has won 60% of his games at Villanova and 65% overall. His teams play a tough, gritty style of play that allows them to compete with anyone in the country. A proven recruiter who has landed three McD's All Americans.
Con: Wright struggled early to acclimate to a new level of talent as the program was hit by a phone card scandal and several players had to be dismissed. His style of play would fit well in the P10 alongside Herb Sendek, Tony Bennett and Ben Howland but his defense first approach is not likely to win over fans or recruits. A lifer on the East Coast, he may not be attracted to the Bay Area
Bottom Line: He’s a big time coach and Cal would win and win consistently with him. Unclear whether he could take the Bears to “elite” status given his recruiting deficiencies and the cultural fit with Berkeley may not be there

Tom Crean: (Marquette University)
Pro: One of the most respected X’s and O’s coaches in all college basketball. His in game decision making skills are as good as it gets. Has done a good job recruiting talent to a Marquette program that hasn’t historically attracted big time prep players. Has won 66% of his games over eight seasons including a Final Four run. A Tom Izzo protégé who was the top assistant at Michigan State during their heyday.
Con: Crean hasn’t been able to get Marquette from a good program to a great one. Some question whether he can recruit as well as his former mentor, Tom Izzo
Bottom Line: Marquette is not a AAA destination in college basketball and Cal offers Crean a more fertile recruiting base, a stronger academic profile and a more desirable place to live. Expect Sandy to inquire about his interest as he could be a great fit for the Bears.

Sean Miller – (Xavier University):
Pro: The son of a coach, Miller has made steady progress with Xavier during his first three years, including this years Elite Eight (and perhaps beyond) appearance. His Xavier teams have consistently exceeded expectations. A Thad Matta (perhaps the best lesser known coach in the country) protégé, Miller is known as a fiery competitor whose teams never back down or give up. Miller has served as an assistant at some of the better programs in the country including Wisconsin, NC State and Pitt.
Con: He inherited a healthy Xavier program and has yet to face the type of program building challenge he would have in Berkeley. His recruiting success to date has been modest. Limited experience as a head coach, especially since he has won with players inherited from Thad Matta.
Bottom Line: Miller is likely to benefit from the coaching carousel at bigger programs like Cal, LSU, Indiana, etc. If Dixon or Crean were to leave Pitt or Marquette, expect Miller to be those schools top choice. His age, background and competitive style would suit him well at Cal and I hope he gets a chance to meet with Sandy.

Mark Fox: (University of Nevada)
Pro: Took over for Trent Johnson when he left for Stanford as has continued the Wolfpack’s winning ways. He has won more than 75% of his games at Nevada including three NCAA appearances in four years. A stellar recruiter, Fox is finding hidden gems and landing the big fish including incoming McD’s AA Luke Babbitt.
Con: Nevada took a step back this year and even with the unexpected departure of PG Ramon Sessions, they underperformed relative to expectations. Fox took over a healthy Nevada program and it’s unclear how much of their recent success was built on the back of Trent Johnson
Bottom Line: Despite the obvious upgrade in jobs, Fox may be loathe to leave Nevada as he welcomes Babbitt and returns a wealth of talent next season. Fox is a year or two away from picking his job. He’s a perfect fit for Cal in terms of his youth, recruiting chops and knowledge of the west coast.

Mike Montgomery (See Previous Blog Post)

The second tier:

Mark Grier – (University of San Diego)
Pro: Spectacular first year success story with USD, giving them their most successful season ever. A long time Gonzaga assistant who has been inside a top flight program and a respected defensive specialist.
Con: Very limited experience as a head coach. Gonzaga was never known for their defense while Grier managed that side of things for the Zags. An unknown commodity as a recruiter of elite prep talent (although Gonzaga has of late recruited at that level)
Bottom Line: Timing doesn’t feel right. Grier is likely going to spend a few more years at USD honing his craft and waiting for Mark Few to move on to Oregon so that he can go back to Spokane and take over the Gonzaga program

Randy Bennett: (St. Mary’s University)
Pro: Took an awful St. Mary’s program (2-26 the year before he arrived) and built it into one of the better teams in the WCC. Has won over 55% of his WCC games and led the Gaels to two NCAA tournament appearances in his seven year tenure
Con: After getting back to respectability with the Gaels, Bennett has failed to establish a level of consistency on par with the elite mid major programs. A longtime assistant at other mid majors, Bennett has no experience recruiting or coaching at a BCS conference
Bottom Line: Bennett deserves an opportunity to coach at a P10 school, however, it’s Oregon State that should be excited to get him and not Cal.

Keno Davis (Drake University)
Pro; Son of legendary college coach Tom Davis, Keno has had a wonderful first year as the head man at Drake. He took over a 17-12 Drake team that lost four starters and led them to a 28-5 record.
Con: A very limited track record as a head coach with only one year. His career as an assistant was all at smaller schools. The biggest question would be his ability to recruit and motivate top prep talent
Bottom Line: A name to watch in the future but at this point in his career, he’s too much of a risk for Cal

Lon Kruger – (UNLV)
Pro; A proven winner who has done well at Florida, Illinois and now UNLV. Kruger has as impressive a resume as any mid major coach. The job he has done turning around UNLV has been just short of miraculous.
Con: Kruger is in the 8th inning of his career and despite his turnaround of UNLV, it’s doubtful he has the energy in doing it for the Bears. He never was able to make Florida or Illinois consistent winners so there are questions about his head room as well.
Bottom Line: Doesn’t feel like a good fit as the Bears need someone who wants to make their name at Cal and not make a final pit stop before heading off to retirement

Eric Musselman – (Former Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings head coach)
Pro: In his early twenties became one of the most successful head coaches in the NBAs minor leagues. He was exceptional at taking lesser known talents in the CBA and working with them to get to the NBA. Is known for his tremendous energy and enthusiasm
Con: Was not successful as an NBA head coach. Has no experience in the college game and has had a few off the court challenges (DUI)
Bottom Line: Musselman is actively campaigning for the Cal job. My guess is that his pro resume and relative youth and high energy level will translate into success as a recruiter in college. However, his lack of experience at this level and his off the court problems likely make him a second tier choice for the Bears.

Steve Lavin – (Former UCLA head coach)
Pro: Led UCLA to four sweet sixteen appearances in six years. Landed almost every top recruit in SoCal during his tenure with the Bruins. A very bright and charismatic person. Lavin is a Bay Area native with a deep knowledge of the Pac 10
Con: Pushed into the head coaching seat too early, Lavin was over his head at UCLA and his teams played inconsistently, underperforming relative to their talent level. A far better motivator than X’s and O’s coach, it’s difficult to know whether he has the chops as a teacher to succeed.
Bottom Line: Arguably the best college basketball television analyst around, Lavin’s future may be in front of cameras and not roaming the sidelines. If Lavin was willing to take an assistant job for a top flight college coach for a few years, he might be a good pick, but right now, he’s a high risk candidate.

There are likely to be more names that surface as the search continues so check back for updates on the list above

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