Many of the so called experts are deriding the Pac 10 as having a down year in 2008-9, especially when compared to last years tremendous showing. It's true that the conference has fewer elite teams than last year, but outside of Oregon State, there are nine teams in the conference capable of playing in the post season. By any measure other than last year, this is a very deep conference and one that will be as intriguing as any in recent memory to watch. As few as thirteen and perhaps twelve wins will earn the conference championship this season.
1.) UCLA: If the Bruins can go to the final four for the fourth straight season then people are going to soon forget John Wooden and start calling Ben Howland the true wizard of Westwood. UCLA welcomes back Darren Collison and Josh Shipp and introduces one of the most talented freshman in the country in Jrue Holiday. If that embarassment of back court riches weren't enough, Jerime Anderson, Malcolm Lee and veteran roll player Mike Roll are all capable players. Unfortunately, as full as the cup is in the backcourt, that's how empty the Bruins are up front. Alfred Aboya and James Keefe are the only returning frontcourt players with any meaningful experience and neither is going to make anyone forget Kevin Love or Richard M'Boute M'boute. A trio of youngsters show promise for the future in the blocks (Dragovic, Gordon and Morgan) but none are ready to contribute meaningfully today. Howland's savvy and his stellar backcourt give UCLA a slight nod as the favorite to win the conference but they are far from the dominating teams we've come to associate with the Bruins.
2.) Tie
Arizona State: Herb Sendek has turned around the Devils program in only two short seasons. The catalyst for this quick three sixty is sophomore wing player, James Harden. Harden is not huge, nor is he explosive athletically but instead is just simply really, really good. He can shoot it from deep or take it to the hole and is adept a rebounder, passer and defender as he is a scorer. Despite some talent around him as Harden goes so goes ASU. Jeff Pendergraph returns for his senior season in the post. He's capable of being dominant down low but lacks consistency. There are some decent role players to fill in around Harden and Pendergraph including sophomores Ty Abbot and Rihard Kuksiks and they along with Sendek's disciplined style should help him complete his rebuilding work by getting the Sun Devils to the tournament
USC: Tim Floyd has the most well rounded and talented squad in the conference. He returns the conferences best shot blocker in Taj Gibson alongside a heady point guard in Daniel Hackett and a solid shooting threat on the perimeter in Dwight Lewis. All three are vets of the P10 wars. Add to the mix is the most explosive athlete to come into the P10 in years. DeMar Derozan is a slasher extrordinaire with huge hops and blinding quickness on the wing. He's started to come into his own the last few games for the Trojans and as he gains consistency and finds some chemistry with his elder teammates, USC will become a force. Expect the Trojans to start slow and finish strong
4.) Tie
Arizona: Despite losing a coaching legend in Lute Olson, the Wildcats return two upperclassmen who will likely have long careers in the NBA. Chase Budinger is a wonderfully athletic wing who can shoot the lights out from deep. Jordan Hill is a big man who explodes off the floor and seems to have found his inner Rick Mahorn after playing way too softly his first two seasons in Tucson. Add in a very heady and mentally tough point guard in Nic Wise and you have a trio capable of leading this team to the top of the conference. A complete lack of depth and the upheaval of Lute's departure will lead to inconsistency and drop them a notch below the top teams in the Pac 10.
Cal: MIke Montgomery let it be known early and often that this years Cal team would struggle. Despite his expectation management, the cupboard is far from bare in Berkeley. Montgomery has five players in their third or fourth year in college including as strong a backcourt as you will find outside of Westwood. The light has gone on for point guard Jerome Randle and his one man fast breaks and deep shooting range will help him gain All Pac 10 status. Patrick Christopher is a big time wing scorer with shut down defensive potential and Theo Robertson is the steady jack of all trades who does whatever is needed for the Bears to win. A thin frontcourt is all that stands between Cal and the top teams in the conference. Montgomery has instantly made Cal a tougher mental and physical team and they should be right on the bubble come NCAA tourney time.
6.) Tie
Washington: Despite Lorenzo Romar's best efforts to the contrary, UW should find itself back in the postseason this year. Jon Brockman is the conference's best big man and is a lock for a double double whenever he steps on the floor. Underperforming prep stars Justin Dentmon and Quincy Poindexter finally have settled into being solid role players while incoming frosh point guard Isiah Thomas is a star in waiting. This team has the necessary depth, raw talent and experience to compete for the Pac 10 title. Romar's inability to develop players is the only thing holding the Huskies back.
Stanford: Johnny Dawkins has his Cardinal team exceeding expectations early on. Stanford enters the Pac 10 race undefeated despite the loss of Los Lopez. The team has shifted effortlessly from a slower tempo, inside dominated team to one that uses its shooting, perimeter pressure defense and experience to play consistently well. Anthony Goods is a superb deep shooter and an underrated defender. Lawrence Hill is a versatile baseline player who can defend and score in the post as well as stepping out and knocking down long jumpers. Mitch Johnson is yet another in a long line of supper savvy winning point guards at Stanford. Beyond those three, the depth is questionable and the Cardinal have almost no post players of consequence.
8th - Washington State: Tony Bennett's team lost a lot with Derrick Low and Kyle Weaver graduating. While he welcomes in a talented recruiting class, it will take some time for the newcomers to master the intricate defense and make no mistakes offense that Bennett favors. Former role players, Taylor Rochestie and Devin Harmeling are now being asked to be go to scorers and the transition has been far from smooth. Big man Aron Baynes is still a year away from counting himself among the conference's best players in the paint. The Cougars best players is freshman Klay Thompson, who seems destined to be a star but his and this teams best days are likely at least a year away.
9th - Oregon: Ernie Kent is a Lorenzo Romar clone. A fabulous recruiter who wins when his teams are filled with seniors and lose far more than they should when he lacks senior leadership, Kent has a very talented but even younger team this season. Tajeun Porter is an undersized shooting guard who can fill it up when left alone but struggles when teams focus on him. Joevan Catron is a "nice" but very undersized post player and Michael Dunigan, Garret Sims and Kamryon Brown are all talented youngsters but not yet ready for prime time. Expect Oregon to be competitive the second time around in conference play, but they will lose early and often the first half of the Pac 10 slate.
10th - Oregon State: Well at least his brother in law is President. New Beaver coach Craig Robinson is otherwise in for a very unmemorable season. This program has been in a constant state of rebuilding and while OSU has some talent, the team has forgotten what it's like to win games and unfortunately that problem is about to get worse. The Beavers will be lucky to steal a game this year in conference play.
Thursday, January 1, 2009
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
A Turtle Trap
If I'm Jeff Tedford, I'm sweating extra hard this week. The Bears are in a no win position heading to Maryland. This is a game that will be far more difficult than folks realize.
- Maryland looked awful barely beating Delaware and even worse losing to MTSU. As a result, Cal is a 14 point favorite on the road against a BCS conference team that went to a bowl last year and returns most of its starters. If Cal wins big, everyone will shrug. If it's close, eyebrows will be raised and if the Bears lose, the sky will be falling. Not much upside here.
- Maryland has a ton of talent, at least on par with Michigan State. They have a future NFL running back, center and WR on offense and a defense that returns a ton of starters after finishing 2007 in the top 25 in total defense nationally
- Think of the Terps like Cal was in the Keith Gilbertson era. Talented and capable of beating anyone on a given day but poorly coached and wildly inconsistent. Moreover, they play down to the level of their competition.
- This is Maryland's marquee game of the year. The fan and player interest in Delaware and MTSU were close to zero. This is the game they've been thinking about all summer. It's on national TV, their pride is at stake and they know they're playing a ranked team with a lot of talent. They are going to bring it on Saturday.
- No Pac 10 team travels as far this season as California will for this game. The team flies basically all day on Friday and then has to be ready to play at 9am PST the next day.
- The Cal team is young and has to be feeling good about themselves after the first two games and a newly minted top 25 appearance. When they look at film of Maryland and their 1-1 record against bad competition, how can the Bears not feel a bit of overconfidence?
That's a whole lot of hand wringing given the evidence to the contrary. Despite all signs pointing towards a classic "trap" game, Cal has some big advantages. Maryland's passing offense is non-existent. Their O line has struggled to give their QB time and even with time, he's not been accurate. Their D line has yet to create any pass rush even against the less than formidable Hen and Blue Raider offensive lines. Moreover, Maryland looks sloppy and undisciplined. The Bears should have a chip on their shoulder after last years meltdown and no doubt they will be excited about the opportunity to play in front of a national TV audience.
So which is it? A blowout win for the Bears or a Turtle trap? I strongly suspect Cal will win but unless the Maryland players have given up completely on their coach and mail the game in, I believe it will be a lot more reminiscent of the Bears victory over Michigan State than the pummeling in the Palouse from last week.
- Maryland looked awful barely beating Delaware and even worse losing to MTSU. As a result, Cal is a 14 point favorite on the road against a BCS conference team that went to a bowl last year and returns most of its starters. If Cal wins big, everyone will shrug. If it's close, eyebrows will be raised and if the Bears lose, the sky will be falling. Not much upside here.
- Maryland has a ton of talent, at least on par with Michigan State. They have a future NFL running back, center and WR on offense and a defense that returns a ton of starters after finishing 2007 in the top 25 in total defense nationally
- Think of the Terps like Cal was in the Keith Gilbertson era. Talented and capable of beating anyone on a given day but poorly coached and wildly inconsistent. Moreover, they play down to the level of their competition.
- This is Maryland's marquee game of the year. The fan and player interest in Delaware and MTSU were close to zero. This is the game they've been thinking about all summer. It's on national TV, their pride is at stake and they know they're playing a ranked team with a lot of talent. They are going to bring it on Saturday.
- No Pac 10 team travels as far this season as California will for this game. The team flies basically all day on Friday and then has to be ready to play at 9am PST the next day.
- The Cal team is young and has to be feeling good about themselves after the first two games and a newly minted top 25 appearance. When they look at film of Maryland and their 1-1 record against bad competition, how can the Bears not feel a bit of overconfidence?
That's a whole lot of hand wringing given the evidence to the contrary. Despite all signs pointing towards a classic "trap" game, Cal has some big advantages. Maryland's passing offense is non-existent. Their O line has struggled to give their QB time and even with time, he's not been accurate. Their D line has yet to create any pass rush even against the less than formidable Hen and Blue Raider offensive lines. Moreover, Maryland looks sloppy and undisciplined. The Bears should have a chip on their shoulder after last years meltdown and no doubt they will be excited about the opportunity to play in front of a national TV audience.
So which is it? A blowout win for the Bears or a Turtle trap? I strongly suspect Cal will win but unless the Maryland players have given up completely on their coach and mail the game in, I believe it will be a lot more reminiscent of the Bears victory over Michigan State than the pummeling in the Palouse from last week.
Monday, September 8, 2008
Soups on after blowout in Pullman
It’s tough not to feel a bit of light headed giddiness coming off the 66-3 thrashing the Bears gave the Washington State Cougars on Saturday. Clearly, WSU is in the midst of a rebuilding process and are more than a few players shy of having an actual Pac 10 football program. At the same time, they weren’t materially less talented than the Stanford and UW teams that embarrassed Cal last year. And, it’s worth noting that Michigan State bounced back from their loss in Berkeley to steam roll Eastern Michigan by a score of 42-10. Still, the question of how good the 2008 Bears are at this point in the season is one where the answer is more minestrone than chicken broth.
Here are a few thoughts after the first two games:
• Kevin Riley is very talented but is still a work in progress. Riley looked a little bit out of sorts in his first real performance in front of a hostile crowd. He missed several wide open receivers and seemed to be holding onto the ball longer than necessary. That said, it was nice to see Nate Longshore bounce back after his MSU debacle and look confident and on target in mop up duty.
• Another positive in the passing game was the first career catch for Mike Calvin and the first catches in a Bear uniform by Nyan Boateng. Outside of Sean Young, the WR corps is still an unknown and the emergence of a big play threat is something Tedford is counting on as the season progresses.
• The offensive line looks like the best unit Cal has had under Jeff Tedford. While it’s easy to focus on all world center Alex Mack, the big surprises are the dominating performance of the guards. Both Norris Malele and undersized but very athletic Chris Guarnero have impressed. Redshirt freshman tackle Mitchell Schwartz looks like a future star and when Mike Tepper gets healthy, the depth across the entire line should be able to withstand any unexpected injuries.
• Jahvid Best has been the primary beneficiary of the blocking up front and he showed that once he has a seam, he’s gone baby gone.
• It’s worth noting that both WSU and MSU’s defensive lines were seen as the weakest elements of their defenses coming into the season. We’ll know more when Cal faces a very stout Arizona State front four.
• Cameron Morrah didn’t catch any passes against the Cougars but his blocking was impressive. If he make himself a consistently good blocker, watch out as he’s already the most dangerous pass catching TE in the Tedford era
• Play calling by Frank Cignetti has thus far felt very Tedford like
• How can you not be happy with our defense? Very stout against the run and we’re seeing breakout performances from Syd Quan Thompson and Tyson Alualu. Both are playing like future NFLers.
• The run defense in particular has stood out but again it’s hard to get too excited once you take into account the OLs the Bears have faced in the first two games. While Michigan State has a potent offense, its weak point looks to be its young offensive line. WSU? Let me put it this way, when Stanford’s OL walks by, the Cougars front five lower their eyes.
• I’ve heard criticism of the pass rush, but I think it’s premature. The front three defensive lineman have all gotten good push on passing downs and in particular Alualu and Davis have collapsed pockets even while facing double teams. The 3-4 means that most passing downs, Bob Gregory is going to blitz at least one linebacker. To my eye, the LBs are still getting used to being picked up by a tackle or guard rather than a TE or RB but given time, I think we’ll see this group get more comfortable and effective. Regardless, even when we choose to send only the three down lineman, we’re not giving as much time to opposing quarterbacks as we did last year when they had time to send out for lunch and still complete passes
• If there’s a concern on defense at this early stage, it’s the play of our safeties. Despite his interception and one highlight reel hit on Saturday, Bernard Hicks’ struggles against the Spartans continued in Pullman. Hicks seems to react a step slow to a thrown ball and his penchant to hit high and not wrap up continues to result in broken tackles. Hicks is plenty fast enough and has the experience you like at free safety but he needs to step up his game or he may be replaced by Brett Johnson. Marcus Ezeff played better on Saturday but has yet to get back to where he was prior to his injury last season
• Special teams continue to be “special”. While kickoffs were better, we’ve only gone from abysmal to plain bad. Let’s hope the progress continues. Bryan Anger was clearly impaired by his brace but more importantly needs to learn to catch the ball. His second drop in tow games doesn’t inspire confidence. David Seawright has been solid in his placekicking but to my eye, he needs to get the ball up in the air to avoid being blocked once he is forced to attempt a longer field goal
• One thing you have to like about a blowout is the opportunity to play the younger players. For example, DJ Holt, Robert Mullins and Mychal Kendricks all looked good in extended duty which speaks well to our future LB corps.
Here are a few thoughts after the first two games:
• Kevin Riley is very talented but is still a work in progress. Riley looked a little bit out of sorts in his first real performance in front of a hostile crowd. He missed several wide open receivers and seemed to be holding onto the ball longer than necessary. That said, it was nice to see Nate Longshore bounce back after his MSU debacle and look confident and on target in mop up duty.
• Another positive in the passing game was the first career catch for Mike Calvin and the first catches in a Bear uniform by Nyan Boateng. Outside of Sean Young, the WR corps is still an unknown and the emergence of a big play threat is something Tedford is counting on as the season progresses.
• The offensive line looks like the best unit Cal has had under Jeff Tedford. While it’s easy to focus on all world center Alex Mack, the big surprises are the dominating performance of the guards. Both Norris Malele and undersized but very athletic Chris Guarnero have impressed. Redshirt freshman tackle Mitchell Schwartz looks like a future star and when Mike Tepper gets healthy, the depth across the entire line should be able to withstand any unexpected injuries.
• Jahvid Best has been the primary beneficiary of the blocking up front and he showed that once he has a seam, he’s gone baby gone.
• It’s worth noting that both WSU and MSU’s defensive lines were seen as the weakest elements of their defenses coming into the season. We’ll know more when Cal faces a very stout Arizona State front four.
• Cameron Morrah didn’t catch any passes against the Cougars but his blocking was impressive. If he make himself a consistently good blocker, watch out as he’s already the most dangerous pass catching TE in the Tedford era
• Play calling by Frank Cignetti has thus far felt very Tedford like
• How can you not be happy with our defense? Very stout against the run and we’re seeing breakout performances from Syd Quan Thompson and Tyson Alualu. Both are playing like future NFLers.
• The run defense in particular has stood out but again it’s hard to get too excited once you take into account the OLs the Bears have faced in the first two games. While Michigan State has a potent offense, its weak point looks to be its young offensive line. WSU? Let me put it this way, when Stanford’s OL walks by, the Cougars front five lower their eyes.
• I’ve heard criticism of the pass rush, but I think it’s premature. The front three defensive lineman have all gotten good push on passing downs and in particular Alualu and Davis have collapsed pockets even while facing double teams. The 3-4 means that most passing downs, Bob Gregory is going to blitz at least one linebacker. To my eye, the LBs are still getting used to being picked up by a tackle or guard rather than a TE or RB but given time, I think we’ll see this group get more comfortable and effective. Regardless, even when we choose to send only the three down lineman, we’re not giving as much time to opposing quarterbacks as we did last year when they had time to send out for lunch and still complete passes
• If there’s a concern on defense at this early stage, it’s the play of our safeties. Despite his interception and one highlight reel hit on Saturday, Bernard Hicks’ struggles against the Spartans continued in Pullman. Hicks seems to react a step slow to a thrown ball and his penchant to hit high and not wrap up continues to result in broken tackles. Hicks is plenty fast enough and has the experience you like at free safety but he needs to step up his game or he may be replaced by Brett Johnson. Marcus Ezeff played better on Saturday but has yet to get back to where he was prior to his injury last season
• Special teams continue to be “special”. While kickoffs were better, we’ve only gone from abysmal to plain bad. Let’s hope the progress continues. Bryan Anger was clearly impaired by his brace but more importantly needs to learn to catch the ball. His second drop in tow games doesn’t inspire confidence. David Seawright has been solid in his placekicking but to my eye, he needs to get the ball up in the air to avoid being blocked once he is forced to attempt a longer field goal
• One thing you have to like about a blowout is the opportunity to play the younger players. For example, DJ Holt, Robert Mullins and Mychal Kendricks all looked good in extended duty which speaks well to our future LB corps.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Observations from MSU game
Despite some sloppy play, particularly around special teams and dumb penalties, the debut performance for the 2008 Bears was a solid one.
In particular, we discovered that this year’s defense is going to be stout against the run and that many of the younger players whom Cal is counting on in 2008 are not only talented but ready to contribute.
Let’s break things down by position groups:
QBs: Kevin Riley played a solid game overall and most importantly made plays at crucial moments. Despite three drops by the Bears new WR corps, Riley’s numbers were a very respectable as he completed 70% of his passes with no interceptions. He looked poised and in command throughout the game. Nate Longshore came off the bench for two exciting series. At a time when Cal’s offense through the air was stuck in neutral, Longshore comes in and immediately hits Cameron Morrah with a 50 yard bomb that gets the Bears knocking on MSUs goal line. Reversing his success more quickly than John McCains selection of Sarah Palin, Nate went on to throw an interception that nearly went 100yds for a Spartans TD. Longshore made a quick read on a seam route and either there was a miscommunication with the receiver or Nate never saw the safety as it wasn’t even close to being caught by a Bear. The very next possession, on a very similar pass route, Nate throws a pick six to the same safety in an area where there were three white shirts and no gold ones. You have to feel for Longshore, whose confidence is clearly not high after the Riley selection as the starter followed by a dismal performance coming off the bench. But clearly, Tedford made the right call on his starter.
RBs: Jahvid Best is a spectacular football player. He’s improved his quickness and his decisiveness from last season and he simply looks like he plays at a different speed than the defense. He’s more elusive and physical than one normally sees in a speed back which allows him to be equally effective between the tackles as running outside. I do fear that 25+ touches a game may be too many for him. His running style is such that he will take some big hits and staying healthy is definitely a concern. Shane Vereen is not playing at 100% yet still out ran the entire MSU defense. His pass catching abilities are tremendous and when he does get healthy, his quicks and speed will rival Best. Will Taufouo may be the best all around FB Cal has had in many years. He’s not just a good blocker, he’s a great one. Outside of Alex Mack, Will may be the 2nd most important part of our running game, even ahead of our talented tailbacks.
WR/TE: Let’s start with the positives. Cameron Morrah is a big time weapon in Cignetti's passing offense. He can really run and is very fluid in getting in and out of his breaks. The one concern is his need to become a better blocker. If he fails to improve beyond what we saw against MSU, Cignetti will be tempted not to play him as often on running downs which will reduce his impact as it tips off the defense. Sean Young had a wonderful game. He is a crisp route runner and has the quickness to get behind coverage. He’s less a play maker (think Robert Jordan and not Hawkins or DJax) than might be ideal but clearly he will be an important part of the rotation. After those two, this may be the position group of most concern after the first game. Nyan Boateng displayed hands that would only impress Roberto Duran and Mike Calvin’s toe injury limited him to a handful of plays. Between Calvin, Ross and true freshman Marvin Jones, one of them needs to establish themselves as the Bears primary playmaker in the passing game. If Calvin can’t get healthy, it may very well be Jones, whose body control and size make him a real threat on jump balls.
OL: I thought the run blocking was better than the pass protection on Saturday, but Cal only gave up one sack so that aspect of things was far from a disaster. MSUs DE collapsed the pocket more often than we are used to seeing with a Jim Michalzik coached line resulting at times in Kevin Riley throwing before he wanted. Given Teofilo and Schwartz’s lack of experience at tackle, that isn’t surprising and their pass protection skills should improve as the season progresses. Norris Malele was a monster run blocking in what may have been his best game as a Bear. With Schwartz, Teofilo and Guarnero all basically newbies on the line and with Tepper likely to return in the next few weeks, I’d say the best is yet to come.
DL: I was very, very impressed with the starting three down lineman. Derrick Hill’s one tackle doesn’t jump out at you but he controlled the middle of the line all day long and was a huge part why the Cal LBs make a ton of tackles. Alualu was the star of the group this day as he practically lived in the Spartans backfield. Rulon Davis faced double teams for much of the day and still played well. Bob Gregory, the Bears defensive coordinator had Davis line up at NT in obvious pass rush situations, which seemed strange given his ability to collapse the pocket from the outside. Of the backups, I thought Kendrick Payne and Kevin Browner, in particular, acquitted themselves well.
LB: They looked awfully fast and basically eliminated Javon Ringer from having any big gains. Felder was a beast and is in my opinion, the Bears best all around LB. Anyone he touches goes down and he seemed to consistently be in the right place at the right time. His one weakness is in coverage and he did get beat by their TE a few times. Worrell Williams looks much more decisive as he was able to read and react faster than I’ve seen in the past. He over ran some plays and still misses some tackles so there’s clearly room for growth. Follett struggled as a pass rusher alongside the three man line. He was often matched up with MSUs tackle who engulfed him on a regular basis. However, his tackling was strong and he made a couple of nice reads resulting in tackles for losses. Eddie Young didn’t stand out other than not making a mistake which given his relative lack of experience is a good thing. Ditto for Devin Bishop.
CB: SQT looked like an all-Pac 10 player against MSU. He comes up and plays the run better than any Cal cornerback in memory and he was superb in pass coverage. He got beat only once that I saw in single coverage and by the end of the game had MSU looking the other way on almost every play. SQT needs to get better at playing the ball when we go to a two deep zone as he’s clearly more comfortable playing bump and run. Darian Hagan showed that he has star potential with his ability to play the ball in the air. He’s got great quickness and seems to have a knack to be exactly where the ball is being thrown. Hagan needs to spend some time with Boateng working on his hands as by my count he dropped three sure interceptions (not counting the one he did get but the refs gave to the Spartans). Hagan did struggle a bit with the bigger MSU receivers pushing off on him while running out routes but he will learn.
Safety: Along with WR, this was my other position area of concern. Marcus Ezeff racked up nine tackles and no doubt he is a sure tackler. He also looked decent when matched up in man coverage. The problem was his ability to find and then play the ball when it was in the air. The Bears had a rough day with their zone and most of it was their safeties not being in position to make plays on the ball. Bernard Hicks had the same problem and then also forget he has a pair of arms. His shoulder tackle cost the Bears a touchdown on Dell’s catch late in the game and he was lucky another shoulder to shoulder hit without wrapping up didn’t result in another six points for MSU. I suspect Ezeff will get better in this aspect of his game and that Brett Johnson will start to play more and more at the expense of Hicks.
Punter: Wow. Wooooow. Does this guy have a leg or what? Anger is a big time weapon for Cal. He needs to learn to get the ball of more quickly and let’s hope he’s taking lessons from Benji Molina on how he catches Todd Lincecum so he’s better prepared for one of Nick Sundberg’s fastballs. The biggest concern is his health as he sprained his knee on his final pouch attempt is questionable for the WSU game.
Kicking: David Seawright looked poised and solid on his one Field Goal try and the five extra points. Kickoffs? That’s a whole different ball of wax. The kicks were short, flat and easily returnable, which resulted in MSU having excellent field position all day long. This needs to get figured out and fast. If you assume Cal will kick off at least four times a game, we’re giving our opponents a 60+ yard advantage if they average starting at their own 35 instead of the twenty. I watched a lot of college football this past weekend and didn’t see a single team that couldn’t consistently get the ball to at least the ten yard line with a high ball that was easily covered.
Coaching: I could quibble here and there with new offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti's playcalling (waited too long to stretch the field with deep passes and not enough stretch running plays to utilize Best’s speed) but I thought overall he did a nice job. On defense, Gregory game planned to shut down their running game and then blitz Hoyer into turning the ball over. We stuffed Ringer and the Spartans ground game and Hoyer’s PER of 103 was well below his average, but we failed to come up with interceptions when we had the chance. I also thought that we left our corners and safeties on an island far too often in obvious passing downs and I’d like to see us lose the three man rush save for when we have a 20+ point lead in the 4th quarter.
Conclusions: I believe MSU will go on to have a solid year and could win as many as nine games. Against that quality of an opponent for us to win the battle at the LOS on both sides of the ball as demonstrably as we did is quite impressive. The talent and depth on this Bears team are obvious. Riley and the defense as a whole showed they were ready to battle hard in a close game giving hope that our leadership issues are behind us. All that said, we have a young offensive squad with virtually no experience on special teams and while Washington State is not Michigan State this year, playing in the Palouse versus the friendly confines of Memorial Stadium will provide a stiff test for our untested newcomers.
In particular, we discovered that this year’s defense is going to be stout against the run and that many of the younger players whom Cal is counting on in 2008 are not only talented but ready to contribute.
Let’s break things down by position groups:
QBs: Kevin Riley played a solid game overall and most importantly made plays at crucial moments. Despite three drops by the Bears new WR corps, Riley’s numbers were a very respectable as he completed 70% of his passes with no interceptions. He looked poised and in command throughout the game. Nate Longshore came off the bench for two exciting series. At a time when Cal’s offense through the air was stuck in neutral, Longshore comes in and immediately hits Cameron Morrah with a 50 yard bomb that gets the Bears knocking on MSUs goal line. Reversing his success more quickly than John McCains selection of Sarah Palin, Nate went on to throw an interception that nearly went 100yds for a Spartans TD. Longshore made a quick read on a seam route and either there was a miscommunication with the receiver or Nate never saw the safety as it wasn’t even close to being caught by a Bear. The very next possession, on a very similar pass route, Nate throws a pick six to the same safety in an area where there were three white shirts and no gold ones. You have to feel for Longshore, whose confidence is clearly not high after the Riley selection as the starter followed by a dismal performance coming off the bench. But clearly, Tedford made the right call on his starter.
RBs: Jahvid Best is a spectacular football player. He’s improved his quickness and his decisiveness from last season and he simply looks like he plays at a different speed than the defense. He’s more elusive and physical than one normally sees in a speed back which allows him to be equally effective between the tackles as running outside. I do fear that 25+ touches a game may be too many for him. His running style is such that he will take some big hits and staying healthy is definitely a concern. Shane Vereen is not playing at 100% yet still out ran the entire MSU defense. His pass catching abilities are tremendous and when he does get healthy, his quicks and speed will rival Best. Will Taufouo may be the best all around FB Cal has had in many years. He’s not just a good blocker, he’s a great one. Outside of Alex Mack, Will may be the 2nd most important part of our running game, even ahead of our talented tailbacks.
WR/TE: Let’s start with the positives. Cameron Morrah is a big time weapon in Cignetti's passing offense. He can really run and is very fluid in getting in and out of his breaks. The one concern is his need to become a better blocker. If he fails to improve beyond what we saw against MSU, Cignetti will be tempted not to play him as often on running downs which will reduce his impact as it tips off the defense. Sean Young had a wonderful game. He is a crisp route runner and has the quickness to get behind coverage. He’s less a play maker (think Robert Jordan and not Hawkins or DJax) than might be ideal but clearly he will be an important part of the rotation. After those two, this may be the position group of most concern after the first game. Nyan Boateng displayed hands that would only impress Roberto Duran and Mike Calvin’s toe injury limited him to a handful of plays. Between Calvin, Ross and true freshman Marvin Jones, one of them needs to establish themselves as the Bears primary playmaker in the passing game. If Calvin can’t get healthy, it may very well be Jones, whose body control and size make him a real threat on jump balls.
OL: I thought the run blocking was better than the pass protection on Saturday, but Cal only gave up one sack so that aspect of things was far from a disaster. MSUs DE collapsed the pocket more often than we are used to seeing with a Jim Michalzik coached line resulting at times in Kevin Riley throwing before he wanted. Given Teofilo and Schwartz’s lack of experience at tackle, that isn’t surprising and their pass protection skills should improve as the season progresses. Norris Malele was a monster run blocking in what may have been his best game as a Bear. With Schwartz, Teofilo and Guarnero all basically newbies on the line and with Tepper likely to return in the next few weeks, I’d say the best is yet to come.
DL: I was very, very impressed with the starting three down lineman. Derrick Hill’s one tackle doesn’t jump out at you but he controlled the middle of the line all day long and was a huge part why the Cal LBs make a ton of tackles. Alualu was the star of the group this day as he practically lived in the Spartans backfield. Rulon Davis faced double teams for much of the day and still played well. Bob Gregory, the Bears defensive coordinator had Davis line up at NT in obvious pass rush situations, which seemed strange given his ability to collapse the pocket from the outside. Of the backups, I thought Kendrick Payne and Kevin Browner, in particular, acquitted themselves well.
LB: They looked awfully fast and basically eliminated Javon Ringer from having any big gains. Felder was a beast and is in my opinion, the Bears best all around LB. Anyone he touches goes down and he seemed to consistently be in the right place at the right time. His one weakness is in coverage and he did get beat by their TE a few times. Worrell Williams looks much more decisive as he was able to read and react faster than I’ve seen in the past. He over ran some plays and still misses some tackles so there’s clearly room for growth. Follett struggled as a pass rusher alongside the three man line. He was often matched up with MSUs tackle who engulfed him on a regular basis. However, his tackling was strong and he made a couple of nice reads resulting in tackles for losses. Eddie Young didn’t stand out other than not making a mistake which given his relative lack of experience is a good thing. Ditto for Devin Bishop.
CB: SQT looked like an all-Pac 10 player against MSU. He comes up and plays the run better than any Cal cornerback in memory and he was superb in pass coverage. He got beat only once that I saw in single coverage and by the end of the game had MSU looking the other way on almost every play. SQT needs to get better at playing the ball when we go to a two deep zone as he’s clearly more comfortable playing bump and run. Darian Hagan showed that he has star potential with his ability to play the ball in the air. He’s got great quickness and seems to have a knack to be exactly where the ball is being thrown. Hagan needs to spend some time with Boateng working on his hands as by my count he dropped three sure interceptions (not counting the one he did get but the refs gave to the Spartans). Hagan did struggle a bit with the bigger MSU receivers pushing off on him while running out routes but he will learn.
Safety: Along with WR, this was my other position area of concern. Marcus Ezeff racked up nine tackles and no doubt he is a sure tackler. He also looked decent when matched up in man coverage. The problem was his ability to find and then play the ball when it was in the air. The Bears had a rough day with their zone and most of it was their safeties not being in position to make plays on the ball. Bernard Hicks had the same problem and then also forget he has a pair of arms. His shoulder tackle cost the Bears a touchdown on Dell’s catch late in the game and he was lucky another shoulder to shoulder hit without wrapping up didn’t result in another six points for MSU. I suspect Ezeff will get better in this aspect of his game and that Brett Johnson will start to play more and more at the expense of Hicks.
Punter: Wow. Wooooow. Does this guy have a leg or what? Anger is a big time weapon for Cal. He needs to learn to get the ball of more quickly and let’s hope he’s taking lessons from Benji Molina on how he catches Todd Lincecum so he’s better prepared for one of Nick Sundberg’s fastballs. The biggest concern is his health as he sprained his knee on his final pouch attempt is questionable for the WSU game.
Kicking: David Seawright looked poised and solid on his one Field Goal try and the five extra points. Kickoffs? That’s a whole different ball of wax. The kicks were short, flat and easily returnable, which resulted in MSU having excellent field position all day long. This needs to get figured out and fast. If you assume Cal will kick off at least four times a game, we’re giving our opponents a 60+ yard advantage if they average starting at their own 35 instead of the twenty. I watched a lot of college football this past weekend and didn’t see a single team that couldn’t consistently get the ball to at least the ten yard line with a high ball that was easily covered.
Coaching: I could quibble here and there with new offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti's playcalling (waited too long to stretch the field with deep passes and not enough stretch running plays to utilize Best’s speed) but I thought overall he did a nice job. On defense, Gregory game planned to shut down their running game and then blitz Hoyer into turning the ball over. We stuffed Ringer and the Spartans ground game and Hoyer’s PER of 103 was well below his average, but we failed to come up with interceptions when we had the chance. I also thought that we left our corners and safeties on an island far too often in obvious passing downs and I’d like to see us lose the three man rush save for when we have a 20+ point lead in the 4th quarter.
Conclusions: I believe MSU will go on to have a solid year and could win as many as nine games. Against that quality of an opponent for us to win the battle at the LOS on both sides of the ball as demonstrably as we did is quite impressive. The talent and depth on this Bears team are obvious. Riley and the defense as a whole showed they were ready to battle hard in a close game giving hope that our leadership issues are behind us. All that said, we have a young offensive squad with virtually no experience on special teams and while Washington State is not Michigan State this year, playing in the Palouse versus the friendly confines of Memorial Stadium will provide a stiff test for our untested newcomers.
Monday, August 25, 2008
Dealing with Adversity
The results of the 2008 football season will reflect whether this Cal team and the football program as a whole can take a step forward in its mental toughness and resiliency. Coming off a miserable season where the Bears went from undefeated and #2 in the nation to a team that barely showed up in dismal losses to Pac 10 bottom dwellers Stanford and Washington, this has become issue #1.
Can this team and this program find what was so obviously missing last year - The leadership, the competitive fire and the never back down attitude that are such necessary ingredients to winning college football games? Coach Tedford has gone out of his way to recognize these missing ingredients and changes have been made. No longer will Tedford manage the offense, instead he hired Frank Cignetti to lead the offense and call the plays. He challenged the team to find leaders and for its seniors to speak out and set the pace. He found insight and inspiration in a book titled, “Talent is never enough” and adopted its principles.
Whether any or all of this will translate to the team’s performance is to be determined. But make no mistake; this is far and away the biggest question for Cal football going into this season. Bigger than the quarterback competition, the loss of the WR corps or questions about the run defense. In trying to project how things might turn out, it’s sometimes helpful to look back in time. The subject of mental fortitude and the ability to overcome adversity are highly subjective topics and applying empirical data to this issue will by no means provide answers but it may provide some perspective.
Let’s look back at the Tedford era and remind ourselves how the Bears have performed when under adversity:
Winning on the road in the Pac 10 is never easy and to do so requires a certain amount of toughness and the ability to perform under less than ideal conditions:
· Tedford’s Bears have gone 12 and 13 for a winning percentage of 48%. That number strikes me as solid but not spectacular. Comparing it to USC and Oregon State may provide some relative perspective as those are the Pac Ten's top 2 programs outside of Cal over the past five years. USCs record is unsurprisingly much better at 20-5 and Oregon State’s is somewhat surprisingly also markedly better at 60% (All of the Oregon State information cited here goes back only to 2003 which was when Mike Riley took over as their head coach)
How about winning big games? They don’t come any bigger than rivalry games and bowl games:
· Cal has shined winning 5 of 6 Big Games while going 4-1 in bowls
Others might define big games by those that occur at the end of the season where the stakes get raised significantly:
· In games played on November 1st and later (excluding the aforementioned Bowl Games), Tedford’s Cal teams have gone 13-9 for a winning percentage of 59%. That’s not too shabby but below Tedford’s overall winning percentage of 66% and perhaps not as impressive when the Stanford games are removed (making the record 8-8). The trend is also interesting as Cal went 9-2 during this period in Tedford’s first three seasons and only 4-7 since. To make these numbers more real, let’s compare them again to the Beavers and the Trojans. Oregon State under Riley has won 63% of their post November games while USC has a remarkable 96% winning percentage since 2002 in games after October.
Adversity can perhaps best be measure by in game challenges:
· When tied or trailing after three quarters, Cal is 7-17 for a 29% winning percentage. Trend wise, the Bears were nearly .500 at 5-7 during Tedford’s first three seasons and a much more anemic 2-10 these past three years. This is a particularly uninformative number in the absence of relative data and citing only two Pac 10 teams improves things only marginally but USC has a .500 record under the same circumstances while Oregon State is at 24%. Riley's Beavers trend line is more positive than Cal's as they were 0 and 7 his first two years before rallying for a 5-9 record the past three seasons.
How about games decided by ten or fewer points?
· Cal is 19-24 or 44% in close games but 2 and 1 in games decided in overtime. Not exactly clutch but the numbers don’t say chokers either.
Getting beyond the numbers, there are several factors folks look at when trying to understand the mental makeup of the team. The first notion is that a team takes on its coaches personality. In Tedford, Cal has a no-nonsense, straight shooting and hyper intense coach whose integrity and character are unimpeachable. Under Tedford’s leadership the Bears have been a highly disciplined group that is well prepared every time they stop on the field. It’s also worth noting that this is his first head coaching experience and as the program grows and improves, facing new challenges and at time dizzying heights of success, Tedford is experiencing those same things for the first time as the top dog. All that said, Tedford is not a fiery emotional leader or an overtly rah-rah guy. While he’s clearly a highly competitive and determined person, he’s better known for not wanting to run up the score and avoiding saying anything inflammatory about other coaches or programs. This is in sharp contrast to the highly emotional types such as Mike Riley and Pete Carroll whose teams we have compared to Cal in this article. It’s also very different from the Bruce Snyder coached Bears who were as apt to get an ill timed personal foul as they were to win a big game.
What about the players? In the past, Cal’s leaders have been obvious and easy to see to even the most casual fan. From Hardy Nickerson to Mike Pawlawski to Eric Zomalt to Jerrot Willard to Tony Gonzalez to Donnie McClesky and Desmond Bishop, the Bears have had men whose stellar play on the field and emotional verve made them natural leaders. Last year and looking forward to this year, it’s less obvious who those folks were and will be. Alex Mack is clearly that type of a player and his intensity at practice is second to no one but offenses usually look to their quarterback for this type of leadership. That may in fact have factored into the coaches decision to start Kevin Riley over Nate Longshore. Riley’s demeanor on the field speaks to more intensity and competitive fire than the understated Longshore and in his two appearances, Riley definitely did well in the face of significant adversity, leading one near comeback and another successful one. It’s interesting to ponder whether the Bears success in the classroom and its relative absence of the off the field problemshas a side effect relative to finding these fanatical football players. I’m certainly not advocating anything other than the current direction the coaches have gone with their recruiting evaluations as never before have Cal fans and alums been able to be equally proud of a football program both on and off the field. That said, I wondered prior to last season where the junkyard dog, back down from no one, never give up, want them at your back in a dark alley type of players were on the team. I don't think we ever found them.
After raising a provocative question and supplying some data and some pure conjecture for contemplation, let me give you my conclusion.
I believe the Bears will bounce back and have a far more successful year this season than what was experienced in 2007, in large part because of the improved mental toughness and fortitude of the 2008 team. Here’s why I have confidence in this years team finding what was missing last season:
- The changes Tedford has made on his coaching staff and in his decision to delegate control of the offense addresses this issue head on. Bringing in Tosh Lupoi to coach the defensive line and Al Simmons to handle the defensive backs has immediately increased the intensity and competitive fire of the defense. The veteran Simmons and the very young Lupoi have an emotional style that gives the team something that Tedford personally lacks. Coach Tedford now has the time to monitor and adjust the teams emotional and mental fitness as a result of not handling the offense
- Senior leadership is obvious this year on both sides of the ball. Alex Mack came back to Cal to win a national championship and he practices and prepares as if he is planning on nothing less. As mentioned above, Riley's leadership style at QB is as important as his big arm and quick feet. On defense, Rulon Davis’ maturity and his non stop motor set a cadence for the rest of the defense to follow. Zach Follett and Worrell Williams have both been outspoken about leading this team and I believe the defense will in fact set the emotional tone for the 2008 Bears
- Expectations are lower this year and perhaps more importantly, the program has gotten used to the pressure brought on by higher expectations. From the lessons in 2006 from visiting Knoxville to last years collapse, these Cal players not only expect to win and win often, they know what it feels like when it all goes wrong. The pressure will be off and when adversity does arise, they will be prepared.
- The absence of “me first” players who saw themselves as bigger than the program. One of the primary advantages of the perennial powerhouses in college football is not simply that they can attract 5 star talent. It’s that those big time prep players know without a doubt that they are not bigger than the tradition and winning legacy of their school. Cal is building that tradition but is not there yet. In fact, in recent years, Cal has probably done more to promote individual players than the program as a whole. That has led to a small number of prima donnas whose own agenda superseded that of the teams. Those players are now gone.
If Jeff Tedford were to lose his mind and ask me for advice on this topic, the one thing I would suggest is that when he recruits student athletes that he take their heart and their desire to win football games as perhaps even more important than their latent talent. I’ll take 2 and 3 star players who will do anything to win games rather than 4 and 5 star talents who either lack the desire to truly compete in the face of adversity or are simply out for themselves. That’s not to say that talent isn’t important, but as Jeff recently read, it’s never enough.
Can this team and this program find what was so obviously missing last year - The leadership, the competitive fire and the never back down attitude that are such necessary ingredients to winning college football games? Coach Tedford has gone out of his way to recognize these missing ingredients and changes have been made. No longer will Tedford manage the offense, instead he hired Frank Cignetti to lead the offense and call the plays. He challenged the team to find leaders and for its seniors to speak out and set the pace. He found insight and inspiration in a book titled, “Talent is never enough” and adopted its principles.
Whether any or all of this will translate to the team’s performance is to be determined. But make no mistake; this is far and away the biggest question for Cal football going into this season. Bigger than the quarterback competition, the loss of the WR corps or questions about the run defense. In trying to project how things might turn out, it’s sometimes helpful to look back in time. The subject of mental fortitude and the ability to overcome adversity are highly subjective topics and applying empirical data to this issue will by no means provide answers but it may provide some perspective.
Let’s look back at the Tedford era and remind ourselves how the Bears have performed when under adversity:
Winning on the road in the Pac 10 is never easy and to do so requires a certain amount of toughness and the ability to perform under less than ideal conditions:
· Tedford’s Bears have gone 12 and 13 for a winning percentage of 48%. That number strikes me as solid but not spectacular. Comparing it to USC and Oregon State may provide some relative perspective as those are the Pac Ten's top 2 programs outside of Cal over the past five years. USCs record is unsurprisingly much better at 20-5 and Oregon State’s is somewhat surprisingly also markedly better at 60% (All of the Oregon State information cited here goes back only to 2003 which was when Mike Riley took over as their head coach)
How about winning big games? They don’t come any bigger than rivalry games and bowl games:
· Cal has shined winning 5 of 6 Big Games while going 4-1 in bowls
Others might define big games by those that occur at the end of the season where the stakes get raised significantly:
· In games played on November 1st and later (excluding the aforementioned Bowl Games), Tedford’s Cal teams have gone 13-9 for a winning percentage of 59%. That’s not too shabby but below Tedford’s overall winning percentage of 66% and perhaps not as impressive when the Stanford games are removed (making the record 8-8). The trend is also interesting as Cal went 9-2 during this period in Tedford’s first three seasons and only 4-7 since. To make these numbers more real, let’s compare them again to the Beavers and the Trojans. Oregon State under Riley has won 63% of their post November games while USC has a remarkable 96% winning percentage since 2002 in games after October.
Adversity can perhaps best be measure by in game challenges:
· When tied or trailing after three quarters, Cal is 7-17 for a 29% winning percentage. Trend wise, the Bears were nearly .500 at 5-7 during Tedford’s first three seasons and a much more anemic 2-10 these past three years. This is a particularly uninformative number in the absence of relative data and citing only two Pac 10 teams improves things only marginally but USC has a .500 record under the same circumstances while Oregon State is at 24%. Riley's Beavers trend line is more positive than Cal's as they were 0 and 7 his first two years before rallying for a 5-9 record the past three seasons.
How about games decided by ten or fewer points?
· Cal is 19-24 or 44% in close games but 2 and 1 in games decided in overtime. Not exactly clutch but the numbers don’t say chokers either.
Getting beyond the numbers, there are several factors folks look at when trying to understand the mental makeup of the team. The first notion is that a team takes on its coaches personality. In Tedford, Cal has a no-nonsense, straight shooting and hyper intense coach whose integrity and character are unimpeachable. Under Tedford’s leadership the Bears have been a highly disciplined group that is well prepared every time they stop on the field. It’s also worth noting that this is his first head coaching experience and as the program grows and improves, facing new challenges and at time dizzying heights of success, Tedford is experiencing those same things for the first time as the top dog. All that said, Tedford is not a fiery emotional leader or an overtly rah-rah guy. While he’s clearly a highly competitive and determined person, he’s better known for not wanting to run up the score and avoiding saying anything inflammatory about other coaches or programs. This is in sharp contrast to the highly emotional types such as Mike Riley and Pete Carroll whose teams we have compared to Cal in this article. It’s also very different from the Bruce Snyder coached Bears who were as apt to get an ill timed personal foul as they were to win a big game.
What about the players? In the past, Cal’s leaders have been obvious and easy to see to even the most casual fan. From Hardy Nickerson to Mike Pawlawski to Eric Zomalt to Jerrot Willard to Tony Gonzalez to Donnie McClesky and Desmond Bishop, the Bears have had men whose stellar play on the field and emotional verve made them natural leaders. Last year and looking forward to this year, it’s less obvious who those folks were and will be. Alex Mack is clearly that type of a player and his intensity at practice is second to no one but offenses usually look to their quarterback for this type of leadership. That may in fact have factored into the coaches decision to start Kevin Riley over Nate Longshore. Riley’s demeanor on the field speaks to more intensity and competitive fire than the understated Longshore and in his two appearances, Riley definitely did well in the face of significant adversity, leading one near comeback and another successful one. It’s interesting to ponder whether the Bears success in the classroom and its relative absence of the off the field problemshas a side effect relative to finding these fanatical football players. I’m certainly not advocating anything other than the current direction the coaches have gone with their recruiting evaluations as never before have Cal fans and alums been able to be equally proud of a football program both on and off the field. That said, I wondered prior to last season where the junkyard dog, back down from no one, never give up, want them at your back in a dark alley type of players were on the team. I don't think we ever found them.
After raising a provocative question and supplying some data and some pure conjecture for contemplation, let me give you my conclusion.
I believe the Bears will bounce back and have a far more successful year this season than what was experienced in 2007, in large part because of the improved mental toughness and fortitude of the 2008 team. Here’s why I have confidence in this years team finding what was missing last season:
- The changes Tedford has made on his coaching staff and in his decision to delegate control of the offense addresses this issue head on. Bringing in Tosh Lupoi to coach the defensive line and Al Simmons to handle the defensive backs has immediately increased the intensity and competitive fire of the defense. The veteran Simmons and the very young Lupoi have an emotional style that gives the team something that Tedford personally lacks. Coach Tedford now has the time to monitor and adjust the teams emotional and mental fitness as a result of not handling the offense
- Senior leadership is obvious this year on both sides of the ball. Alex Mack came back to Cal to win a national championship and he practices and prepares as if he is planning on nothing less. As mentioned above, Riley's leadership style at QB is as important as his big arm and quick feet. On defense, Rulon Davis’ maturity and his non stop motor set a cadence for the rest of the defense to follow. Zach Follett and Worrell Williams have both been outspoken about leading this team and I believe the defense will in fact set the emotional tone for the 2008 Bears
- Expectations are lower this year and perhaps more importantly, the program has gotten used to the pressure brought on by higher expectations. From the lessons in 2006 from visiting Knoxville to last years collapse, these Cal players not only expect to win and win often, they know what it feels like when it all goes wrong. The pressure will be off and when adversity does arise, they will be prepared.
- The absence of “me first” players who saw themselves as bigger than the program. One of the primary advantages of the perennial powerhouses in college football is not simply that they can attract 5 star talent. It’s that those big time prep players know without a doubt that they are not bigger than the tradition and winning legacy of their school. Cal is building that tradition but is not there yet. In fact, in recent years, Cal has probably done more to promote individual players than the program as a whole. That has led to a small number of prima donnas whose own agenda superseded that of the teams. Those players are now gone.
If Jeff Tedford were to lose his mind and ask me for advice on this topic, the one thing I would suggest is that when he recruits student athletes that he take their heart and their desire to win football games as perhaps even more important than their latent talent. I’ll take 2 and 3 star players who will do anything to win games rather than 4 and 5 star talents who either lack the desire to truly compete in the face of adversity or are simply out for themselves. That’s not to say that talent isn’t important, but as Jeff recently read, it’s never enough.
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
2008 Pac-10 Projection
2008 Predicted Pacific Ten Conference Final Standings:
1. USC 8-1
2. Cal 7-2
3. Oregon 6-3
4. ASU 5-4
5. Arizona 5-4
6. Oregon State 4-5
7. Stanford 3-6
8. UCLA 3-6
9. UW 2-7
10. WSU 2-7
USC:
Pete Carroll continues to assemble the best depth of talent in all of college football. As a result he is often overlooked for his tremendous teaching and motivational abilities as a coach. His USC teams play at a consistently high level of intensity and rarely hurt themselves with mistakes. In 2008, the Trojans defense should be exceptional, look for more forced turnovers and improved special teams play. The offense is not nearly at the same level. The quarterback position is a major question with the likely starter being an unproven Mark Sanchez. Sanchez went down with a knee injury in camp this summer and neither of his backups have yet to distinguish themselves. Compounding the concern at quarterback is USCs offensive line. It’s a group with potential but it’s lacking in experience and depth. In addition, playmakers need to be found at both the WR and TE positions. If the offensive line can come together, a strong running game should emerge helping the Trojans young quarterbacks find their footing. Look for USC to get hit with a rare home lose to Ohio State and another game in the first half of the Pac 10 slate.
California
The depth and talent in Berkeley are superior to all but USC within the conference. Had the Bears not done their best Van De Velde imitation in late October last season, we’d be talking about them as a legitimate threat to USC’s conference dominance. Instead, we’re left wondering if this programs psyche and confidence can be resuscitated. On paper, the team looks impressive. On offense, it starts up front where Cal sports the team’s deepest and most talented offensive line in the Tedford era. The running game should be strong as only the Trojans have a better stable of running backs. Playmakers need to be established at WR, but they will be helped by having a healthy fifth year senior and a dynamic sophomore both of whom have played well in the past throwing them the ball. The Bear’s defense should be improved with 8 returning starters. However, they have shifted to a 3-4 set, which could take time to master, and the run defense has to improve for Cal to play well. How this team deals with adversity will point to whether they challenge USC for the conference title as they did two years ago or end up near the bottom of the conference as they did last season.
Oregon:
This will be the Ducks best defensive team in many years. The secondary is as good as USC’s and they return the conference’s top sack master at DE. On offense, the Ducks offensive line will be among the nation’s best and will allow new stars to establish themselves at wide receiver and quarterback. The schedule is ugly and depth is a concern almost everywhere. Oregon will need to stay healthy, especially at quarterback, linebacker and defensive tackle if they plan to contend for the Pac 10 crown.
Arizona State:
Erickson made a great first impression and did so with only decent talent. The schedule is a lot less favorable this year and much of the talent that was there last year has left for the NFL. Carpenter is a good but not great quarterback and the offensive line only looks good when compared to UCLA’s. If the offensive line can find itself, there is talent at WR and RB. The defense came alive under Erickson and should again be solid if unspectacular. Bolden and Nolan are both studs in the secondary. ASU has three very good defensive lineman but little depth. Expect ASU to come back to earth as Erickson works to stockpile AAA talent.
Arizona:
It couldn’t happen to a less likable guy but Stoops will finally get over the hump this year. The offense will be solid with Grigsby as a run threat and Tuitama and a very strong WR corps mastering the spread offense. If they can stay healthy, the offensive line looks like the best crew Stoops has had. Last year’s defense disappointed but they should bounce back to the hard hitting bunch Stoops is known to develop. Depth is a concern almost everywhere but receiver and special teams play could be a nightmare.
Oregon State:
Mike Riley is a superb coach and despite having to rebuild his defense, this team will be competitive. Moevao will establish himself as a reliable P10 QB with a solid group of wide receivers led by Sammie Stroughter who could be the conference’s best wideout . The defense must replace nine starters but has some talent coming in to mitigate the losses. On both sides of the ball, the Beavers ability to create a run game and stop the opponents run will be the keys to the season
Stanford:
A staunch defense and a further injection of Harbaugh’s raw optimism will result in one more win that last season. Stanford has a very strong front seven on defense and they finally have a decent offensive line to help their offense. The Cardinal lacks any offensive playmakers including at quarterback and the secondary will be spotty. While it’s highly unlikely they will surprise USC or Cal again, this Stanford team will be more competitive and take another step forward in the Harbaugh rebuilding process
UCLA:
Rick Neuheisel is going to just have to grin and bear it. Despite a stout defense, UCLA does not have enough to overcome the conference’s most anemic offense. The Bruins offensive line will be reminiscent of the groups Stanford put out under Buddy Teevens and Walt Harris. Look for sacks galore and a non-existent running game. The talent and depth at QB is only marginally better which will waste a strong corps of running backs and wide receivers. The defense should keep games close but that won’t be enough to keep UCLA solidly in the bottom half in the conference.
Washington:
A brutal schedule will eviscerate any hope Ty Willingham had of keeping his job. His Dawgs will play hard and smart but that won’t be enough to overcome a lack of talent. Locker is an absolute stud at QB but injuries and a lack of playmakers around him will dull his impact. The defense is more talented than last years group but very young. Given UW’s recruiting momentum, Willingham would turn this around in another year but the UW faithful don’t have the patience.
Washington State:
Look for a better than expected offensive performance and an every bit as bad as advertised defense from the Cougars. They will upset a couple of folks at home but will endure some bad beatings on the road. New coach Paul Wullf will improve this teams discipline and consistency but unless he can recruit, he may have a short stay in Pullman.
1. USC 8-1
2. Cal 7-2
3. Oregon 6-3
4. ASU 5-4
5. Arizona 5-4
6. Oregon State 4-5
7. Stanford 3-6
8. UCLA 3-6
9. UW 2-7
10. WSU 2-7
USC:
Pete Carroll continues to assemble the best depth of talent in all of college football. As a result he is often overlooked for his tremendous teaching and motivational abilities as a coach. His USC teams play at a consistently high level of intensity and rarely hurt themselves with mistakes. In 2008, the Trojans defense should be exceptional, look for more forced turnovers and improved special teams play. The offense is not nearly at the same level. The quarterback position is a major question with the likely starter being an unproven Mark Sanchez. Sanchez went down with a knee injury in camp this summer and neither of his backups have yet to distinguish themselves. Compounding the concern at quarterback is USCs offensive line. It’s a group with potential but it’s lacking in experience and depth. In addition, playmakers need to be found at both the WR and TE positions. If the offensive line can come together, a strong running game should emerge helping the Trojans young quarterbacks find their footing. Look for USC to get hit with a rare home lose to Ohio State and another game in the first half of the Pac 10 slate.
California
The depth and talent in Berkeley are superior to all but USC within the conference. Had the Bears not done their best Van De Velde imitation in late October last season, we’d be talking about them as a legitimate threat to USC’s conference dominance. Instead, we’re left wondering if this programs psyche and confidence can be resuscitated. On paper, the team looks impressive. On offense, it starts up front where Cal sports the team’s deepest and most talented offensive line in the Tedford era. The running game should be strong as only the Trojans have a better stable of running backs. Playmakers need to be established at WR, but they will be helped by having a healthy fifth year senior and a dynamic sophomore both of whom have played well in the past throwing them the ball. The Bear’s defense should be improved with 8 returning starters. However, they have shifted to a 3-4 set, which could take time to master, and the run defense has to improve for Cal to play well. How this team deals with adversity will point to whether they challenge USC for the conference title as they did two years ago or end up near the bottom of the conference as they did last season.
Oregon:
This will be the Ducks best defensive team in many years. The secondary is as good as USC’s and they return the conference’s top sack master at DE. On offense, the Ducks offensive line will be among the nation’s best and will allow new stars to establish themselves at wide receiver and quarterback. The schedule is ugly and depth is a concern almost everywhere. Oregon will need to stay healthy, especially at quarterback, linebacker and defensive tackle if they plan to contend for the Pac 10 crown.
Arizona State:
Erickson made a great first impression and did so with only decent talent. The schedule is a lot less favorable this year and much of the talent that was there last year has left for the NFL. Carpenter is a good but not great quarterback and the offensive line only looks good when compared to UCLA’s. If the offensive line can find itself, there is talent at WR and RB. The defense came alive under Erickson and should again be solid if unspectacular. Bolden and Nolan are both studs in the secondary. ASU has three very good defensive lineman but little depth. Expect ASU to come back to earth as Erickson works to stockpile AAA talent.
Arizona:
It couldn’t happen to a less likable guy but Stoops will finally get over the hump this year. The offense will be solid with Grigsby as a run threat and Tuitama and a very strong WR corps mastering the spread offense. If they can stay healthy, the offensive line looks like the best crew Stoops has had. Last year’s defense disappointed but they should bounce back to the hard hitting bunch Stoops is known to develop. Depth is a concern almost everywhere but receiver and special teams play could be a nightmare.
Oregon State:
Mike Riley is a superb coach and despite having to rebuild his defense, this team will be competitive. Moevao will establish himself as a reliable P10 QB with a solid group of wide receivers led by Sammie Stroughter who could be the conference’s best wideout . The defense must replace nine starters but has some talent coming in to mitigate the losses. On both sides of the ball, the Beavers ability to create a run game and stop the opponents run will be the keys to the season
Stanford:
A staunch defense and a further injection of Harbaugh’s raw optimism will result in one more win that last season. Stanford has a very strong front seven on defense and they finally have a decent offensive line to help their offense. The Cardinal lacks any offensive playmakers including at quarterback and the secondary will be spotty. While it’s highly unlikely they will surprise USC or Cal again, this Stanford team will be more competitive and take another step forward in the Harbaugh rebuilding process
UCLA:
Rick Neuheisel is going to just have to grin and bear it. Despite a stout defense, UCLA does not have enough to overcome the conference’s most anemic offense. The Bruins offensive line will be reminiscent of the groups Stanford put out under Buddy Teevens and Walt Harris. Look for sacks galore and a non-existent running game. The talent and depth at QB is only marginally better which will waste a strong corps of running backs and wide receivers. The defense should keep games close but that won’t be enough to keep UCLA solidly in the bottom half in the conference.
Washington:
A brutal schedule will eviscerate any hope Ty Willingham had of keeping his job. His Dawgs will play hard and smart but that won’t be enough to overcome a lack of talent. Locker is an absolute stud at QB but injuries and a lack of playmakers around him will dull his impact. The defense is more talented than last years group but very young. Given UW’s recruiting momentum, Willingham would turn this around in another year but the UW faithful don’t have the patience.
Washington State:
Look for a better than expected offensive performance and an every bit as bad as advertised defense from the Cougars. They will upset a couple of folks at home but will endure some bad beatings on the road. New coach Paul Wullf will improve this teams discipline and consistency but unless he can recruit, he may have a short stay in Pullman.
Friday, August 15, 2008
Observations from Cal Scrimmage
Run offense: The offense looked good running ball and in fact until the tail end of the scrimmage when the offensive line was made up of 2nd and 3rd string players going against a similar group on defense, they were able to get significant push off the ball all day. Running inside was an easy four to five yards a pop while going outside almost routinely created space for the tailbacks to break off big plays. I was particularly impressed with the run blocking of Chris Guarnero, the sophomore center who looks to have made the shift to guard as he started with the first team on the left side and Mitchell Schwartz, the mammoth right tackle. To my eye, all of the TEs were effective in run blocking including Cameron Morrah, who had previously been described as an indifferent blocker. Jahvid Best did not participate as he was nursing a minor leg injury of some sort. Shane Vereen got the start and looked solid although I have to believe he is still not 100%. While far from pedestrian in his cuts and acceleration, Shane was noticeably less explosive. Tracy Slocum was very effective as well. Slocum runs with great body lean and a low center of gravity, making him tough to tackle.
Passing Offense: This was a mixed bag. Protection was decent but certainly not up to the standards of recent Cal offensive lines. The second team line especially struggled to contain the rush and the running backs had their share of problems with blitzing linebackers. All in all though, the QBs (even running with the 2nd and 3rd string offensive lines) were not overly harried. Neither Longshore or Riley played particularly well as both spent time with the 1st and 2nd teams. Longshore had good command of the huddle, stepped up nicely against the rush and checked off well on blitzes. However, he missed several wide open receivers with high throws. Riley wasn't as consistent with his ball as a few fluttered on him. He did thread the needle on several throws but he struggled to put together back to back positive plays. There were few big plays with the best being Brock Mansion's deep sideline throw to Marvin Jones. The receivers had a positive day in so far as I can't remember one ball being dropped in the scrimmage that wasn't forced out by a defender's hit. Against man coverage, there wasn't a lot of separation although Sean Young proved he understands how to find the soft spots against the zone repeatedly. The TEs had a nice day with Morrah, Smith and Anthony Miller all making nice catches on seam routes. All in all, I suspect this part of Cal's offense to take some time to come together. Getting Mike Tepper back on the offensive line will help with protection as will more time for guys like Schwartz and Guarnero to gel with their linemates.
Placekicking: This could continue to be a big weakness this year. Freshman David Seawright was more impressive on field goal tries than Jordan Kay but neither were stellar. Kay gets the ball deeper on kickoffs but to my eye Seawright has the bigger leg. David needs to hit the ball more consistently to get his kickoffs both high and deep.
Run Defense: This was not a good day for the Bears front seven against the run. As mentioned above, the offensive line consistently got good push on the defense and caught the outside linebackers blitzing on several plays to spring runs to the outside. Eddie Young had a rough day to my eye as did whomever the Bears had at NT. Derrick Hill eventually limped off the field and Kendrick Payne was very slow to get up after several plays late in the scrimmage. Worrell Williams missed the scrimmage. After Alex Mack was asked to take off the rest of the day, the run defense did get better but only slightly as the offensive line was still getting good push.
Pass Defense: This was a bright spot for Cal. Darian Hagen started opposite Syd Quan Thompson (who left the scrimmage early but I did not see if it was injury related) and played well. Bernard Hicks had a good day playing the ball in the air and in general coverage was tight. The defense struggled a bit with underneath passes in the two deep zone and they were aided by some missed throws from the QBs. The pass rush was solid with good push being brought by Owusu, Davis and Jordan as well as blitzing linebackers.
Punting: Bryan Anger is a rain maker. The guy absolutely kills the football. You needed a sun dial to time his hang time. Anger needs work in getting the ball off quicker and he wasn't super consistent with his ball striking but this guy is special.
Coverage teams: For the most part, kickoff coverage was very solid. Punt coverage less so.
Observations: I saw a lot of younger players who were quite impressive on both sides of the ball. Mychal Kendricks is very quick and aggressive and athletically jumps out at you. DJ Holt is HUGE and he is not afraid of contact. Both of these young players should be future stars at LB. Robert Mullins is an undersized linebacker but he has a nose for the ball. Ernest Owusu was very effective rushing the passer and was not easily pushed around on running plays. Marvin Jones has great size and fabulous hands. He's not as explosive as Boateng coming in and out of cuts, but he has a knack for getting open. Brock Mansion looked good and made some nice throws and several other players stood out for me including Justin Cheadle (powerful run blocker), Charles Satchell (very smooth and explosive), DJ Campbell, Dominic Galas, Cameron Jordan (He's HUGE), LaReylle Cunningham (He and Young were the most effective WRs) and Anthony Miller (blocking and catching the ball). I wanted to see who the obvious playmakers and leaders were on the field. Watching how they approached drills, the way they communicated with teammates, their play in the scrimmage, etc. Rulon Davis and Bernard Hicks stood out to me on defense and Alex Mack and Nate Longshore on offense.
Overall impressions: This wasn't the most intense scrimmage that I've seen and lacked some of the big plays and hard hitting of scrimmages in past year. The injury list was long and that certainly contributed but the challenges with the run defense and our passing offense will leave Tedford and his staff with plenty of work to do with the remaining time in camp.
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