Blue and Gold Sports

Early Pac 10 Predictions

2009-06-22T13:55:00.000-07:00

Before I walk through my early predictions (I reserve the right to tweak these based on Fall camp injuries and eligibility outcomes) keep in mind the biases I have in evaluating college football teams:

1.) Historical performance most importantly the previous season. Filter that with injuries, turnover margin and schedule to project the coming year
2.) Returning talent - a combination of experience and talent based on previous AllP10 honors and recruiting rankings
3.) Big emphasis on the two lines - The biggest correlation to winning at the BCS level in college football is control of the LOS on both sides of the ball
4.) Schedule - Home field advantage especially in big games can be a difference maker
5.) Depth - Competition results in players pushing themselves and injuries are a part of the game
6.) Coaching - This is a constant and creates the tone and culture of a program. Bad coaches never win, average coaches only win on occasion, good coaches win more often than not and great coaches almost never have bad seasons.

This is an interesting year for the P10. USC isn't the obvious NC contender as they have been the past five years but they and Cal are clearly a notch above the rest of the conference. From 3rd to 9th in the conference, it's going to be a dog fight. Injuries could be critical as teams like UCLA, Stanford and Oregon State are talented but thin.

With that long preamble, here's how I see the season going:

1.) Cal - Let's start on defense, where the Bears return nine starters. I count Mohammed as a starter as he was the teams leading tackler from the LB position last year and arguably their best all around linebacker. The defense should be very salty in 2009 as a result of that returning experience. Especially as the strength of the group is up front with three studs in Alualu, Hill and Jordan. The secondary will be among the nations best and the talent level everywhere is at an all time high in Berkeley. Depth on the DL and LB are the only real concerns as the loss of Mohammed, Alualu or Jordan would be hard to overcome. Offensively, there is also reason for optimism although more guarded than on defense. The Bears passing game can only get better as the OL gets needed depth and lots of returning experience and Kevin Riley returns all of his key receivers from last years and adds some needed young talent. Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen are both home run threats who can catch and run equally well out of the backfield. Beyond the needed improvement in the passing game, replacing Cameron Morrah at TE will not be easy and the loss of blocking fullback Will Tafuo is a hit to the running game. The Bears need to prove that they can win in November against good teams and win road games against inferior opponents. The schedule is rougher than it looks at first glance. Back to back to back games early at Minnesota, vs. USC and at Oregon will not be easy nor will P10 tilts on the road against improved UCLA and Stanford squads.

2.) USC - Too much focus is being put on the inexperience at the quarterback position. Aaron Corp will be in his third season for the Trojans and will be taking snaps behind the nation's best offensive line, a good group of wideouts including a potential AA and arguably the deepest corps of running backs in America. While we may see more mistakes than normal and perhaps a late game breakdown on the road, this Trojan team is going to put up points, lots of them. Defensively, they will take a step back from last years record setting group, but the talent and depth are as good as ever. If the DL and LBs can stay healthy and get good production from some unproven DTs and ILBs, USC will give up points very grudgingly. The schedule is the Trojans biggest concern. Road tilts against Ohio State and Cal early in the year are going to be daunting. I actually see USC and Cal having identical P10 records with the edge to the Bears being a win in Berkeley in early October. Were the two teams to play in LA or later in the year, I'm not sure my prediction would have been the same.

There's a BIG drop off after the Trojans and Bears but the next five teams are all good enough to go bowling and any one of them could end up in 3rd place.

3.) Arizona: This is a solid Wildcat team, with more talent and depth than at any time in the Stoops era. They could easily finish as high as 3rd if they find a quarterback. There are plenty of playmakers on offense with two good tailbacks in Grigsby and Antolin and a solid corps of WRs return led by Dean and Turner. Arizona also boasts the nations top TE in Gronkowski and they appear to have the makings of a serviceable OL. There will be a new starter at QB and neither of the candidates has any real experience. That's a potential challenge given the pass happy offense favored by OC Sonny Dykes. However, Dykes had a good track record of breaking in new QBs at Texas Tech and is dealing with more highly touted recruits this time around. Defensively, this unit will not embarrass the defensive minded Stoops although it's not quite at the caliber of the elite P10 units. They return all four lineman but the group is undersized with no real standouts. The back seven are better with an athletic LB crew and a tough secondary led by Devin Ross and Cam Nelson.

4.) UCLA: I see the Bruins making a big jump this year. Their defense will be as good as any in the P10 and their offense will improve at least enough to avoid scoring points for the opposition as they did throughout last year. Their OL was atrocious last season as they started with concerns only to see the nations worst injury bug hit that position group. While the offense lacks playmakers, they have solid talent at WR, RB and TE. Their defense returns nine starters including arguably the conference's best DT in Brian Price and the best cover cornerback in Verner. Masking the Bruins melt down last year was their atrocious TO margin and loads of injuries. Their luck should change around injuries as TOs, leading to a bowl appearance this year.

5.) Stanford: The Cardinal are solid along both lines, return a stud running back and welcome a quarterback who I believe will be a multiple time AP10 performer. Andrew Luck was one of those kids whose HS film was off the charts. He played for a prep team that gave him no pass protection whatsoever and still he was able to put up big time numbers. His accuracy will remind you of former Cardinal and current Buffalo Bills starter, Trent Edwards, only Luck will have the benefit of playing behind an offensive line that is among the P10s best as well as Toby Gerhart's ability to force defenses to play the run first. Defensively, Stanford returns eight starters including three on the DL. Ekom Udofia is the star here and he is a load at NT. The linebacker group and secondary lack elite athletes but they are smart and will rely on their more talented DL to occupy blockers and harass QBs. Stanford's schedule is ideal with 7 home games and road games against weak Washington State and Wake Forest teams.

6.) Oregon: Despite a plethora of offensive skill position talent and a good secondary, the Ducks are not at the level that saw them earn 2nd in the P10 in 2008. They are rebuilding their offensive line and while the talent is there, it will take time for this group to master the zone blocking scheme required by Chip Kelly's offense. Their defensive line is in worse shape as they lack experience and have virtually no depth. As good as Masoli and Blount are and as prolific as Kelly's scheme has been, without up front blocking on offense and some ability to slow teams down on defense, it could be a rough first year for Coach Kelly. This will prove to be a bitter pill as the Ducks have real talent in their secondary with underrated FS TJ Ward and stud cornerback Walter Thurmond. But with no pass rush, this secondary will be hard pressed to slow down opposing offenses. The schedule looks attractive but the road opener at Boise State could get ugly early and home games in September against Utah and Cal may be occur before the OL comes together, muting the Autzen advantage. I believe 2010 will be the Ducks year as they will return almost the entire team and their last two recruiting classes have been strong.

7.) Oregon State: The Beavers face similar challenges to the Ducks along both offensive and defensive lines but have less talent behind them. That and the fact that the Civil War is in Eugene this year is all the separate the two Oregon teams. While Mike Riley is a superior coach and a tremendous talent evaluator, this year will be a rebuilding one for his strong program. The offensive line is a key and keeping that group healthy will be vital not only for opening up holes for returning P10 offensive MVP Jacquiz Rodgers but in finding time for two solid QBs in Moevao and Canfield. Defensively, OSU will take a step back. Stephen Paea is a future NFL player and he'll have adequate support on the DL with Ben Taylor and Kevin Frahm but this group lacks last years pass rushing skills and overall depth. The LB crew will be solid with Kristick and Pankey leading the way but losses in the secondary alongside a less effective pass rush will result in the Beavers having to win more shootouts than normal

8.) Arizona State: The Sun Devils are going to hope their defense can score a lot of points off turnovers this season as the cupboard is awfully bare on offense. Their OL is on paper, the conference's weakest, they have no proven quarterback or tailback and only one offensive player who qualifies as a threat, that being WR Chris McGaha. As many questions as their are on offense, that's how good their defense could be. Dexter Davis is a ferocious pass rusher and Lawrence Guy is a stout DT against the run. The LB crew is the best in the league and the secondary features two solid players in Bolden and Carr. The schedule doesn't help as they host the conference's two best teams, taking away what might have been easier wins against the rest of the conference. There is simply not enough offense for this team to finish higher.

9.) Washington - This prediction belies the tremendous improvement this team will have in 2009. The Huskies are going to be a vastly improved team but their murderous schedule will not allow them to adequately reflect it. Jack Locker is back and healthy and coming off a strong Spring showing. For all of the possible impact new HC Sarkisian can have, none is greater than with his talented QB. Sark is a proven QB coach and in Locker he has someone with all the tools. While Locker is not surrounded with much talent, there is plenty of experience. The OL should be better as will the play at RB and WR. Defensively, this team lack speed and depth although EJ Savannah and Mason Foster will scare some teams from their LB positions. Still, a schedule which includes LSU, Notre Dame not to mention road games against OSU and UCLA will be tough to overcome.

10.) WSU - The Cougars are at a two decade low in terms of talent and depth. While they return 15 starters and are likely to feel more comfortable in the second year of HC Paul Wulff's regime, the horses just aren't there. Their offense has some skill talent with running backs Tardy and Montgomery and WR Jeshua Anderson and the OL returns 4 starters but this is not a talented group. The QB situation is not clear with neither Lopina nor Lobbestael inspiring much confidence. The defense returns 7 starters including LBs Mattingly and Bland but not much else. Speed is real missing ingredient with this squad as is size as neither of their projected DTs goes more than 285lbs. If WSU can somehow avoid injuries and the offensive line unit can overachieve they may surprise a few folks. The middle of the P10 just feels too tough for them to make much progress.

Interesting analysis based on Phil Steele talent scoring

2009-06-14T20:16:00.000-07:00

For those of you who don't know Phil Steele, he provides the most in depth college football preview anywhere. Extremely thorough and highly analytic, he's also consistently the most accurate projector of an upcoming season.

This year, he has Cal finishing 2nd in the P10 and the #9 team overall (taking schedule aside), he also lists the Bears as a dark horse for the national championship.

One interesting part of what Steele does is to take all the rankings (he uses eight different experts) to score players across all the services to arrive at a # by position where they ranked coming out of HS or JC.

He then highlights those that score enough points to be called a highly touted recruit.

For the P10, here's a breakdown of projected starters who are highly touted recruits by team (I will also list star players for each team who were not HT). In descending order.

USC - All but 2 of their 24 starters (including K and P) were HT recruits - Incredible and sadly not surprising - The two who didn't make it? RG Alex Parsons and LT Charles Brown.

Cal - 15 players listed as HT including 8 on defense. Two that didn't make it on D were Tyson Alualu, a 2nd team AP10 selection and Cameron Jordan, a likely AP10 selection this year. Look for the Bears to be awfully tough to score on this year. Schwartz and Guarnero were the only HTs on the OL.

Arizona - 14 players are HT, not including Brooks Reed, 2nd team AP10 DE last year, Cam Nelson, an HM P10 safety and Nicholas Grigsby, an HM AP10 RB. Apparently, Mike Stoops is recruiting well.

Stanford - A surprising 13 HTs seen as starters this year. And that list doesn't include Chris Marinelli, a projected AP10 OL this year, and Clinton Snyder, another potential AP10 LB.

UCLA - 11 players are HTs which doesn't include Ryan Moya, 2nd team AP10 TE, Reggie Carter, 2nd team AP10 LB and Alterraun Verner, 1st team AP10 CB. Bruins should have a very good defense this year.

Arizona State - Ten HTs dot their starting depth chart, not including stud WR Chris McGaha, Dexter Davis, a two time AP10 DE and Omar Bolden, a potential AP10 CB.

Washington - Wow, color me shocked that the Huskies have 9 HTs among their starters. Depth is a HUGE issue for them but this team has some talent. Too bad their schedule is tougher than the Seahawks this year.

Oregon - Fewer big recruits than you might think with only 8 HTs among their projected starters although that misses Masoli at QB, Dickson at TE who was a 2nd team AP10 performer last year, TJ Ward, an HM AP10 safety and Walter Thurmond III, a projected AP10 player this coming season.

Oregon State - As usual, they have very few highly ranked recruits with only 3 HTs, that does not include Lyle Movaeo, their HM AP10 QB, Stephen Paea, an HM AP10 DT and Keaton Kristick, a 2nd team AP10 LB last season.

Washington State - Tied for last with OSU, WSU has only 3 HTs. Unfortunately, unlike the Beavers, the Cougars have no one else who should have been an HT.

This is not a good way to project the upcoming season as lots of recruits don't pan out and many that aren't highly rated become stars. Also, a good number of the ones listed here have very little playing experience and issues like depth, experience, coaching and schedule have to be considered as well. Look for my preseason prognostications later this week.

Still, interesting food for thought in the dog days of June.

The Passing Game

2009-06-13T12:31:00.000-07:00

The projections for next year's Cal football team seem to inevitably come back to one question - "Will Kevin Riley play well enough at QB for the Bears to win?" While no one is going to argue that the quarterback is a critical position and that last years performances by Riley and Longshore left much to be desired, the folks who are fixated on Cal's QB play would do well to keep Kurt Warner in mind.

Kurt Warner came into the NFL and promptly became the league's MVP in leading the St. Louis Rams to a Super Bowl win. His release and accuracy were picture perfect and the offense he ran could not be stopped. Fast forward three years and Warner was suddenly incapable of avoiding bad interceptions, was missing wide open WRs and was holding onto the ball too long. Eventually St. Louis let him go and he followed that with a miserable stint with the NY Giants followed by a couple of mediocre campaigns with the Cardinals.

At that point, it was easy to write off Warner as a flash in the pan, a guy for whom lightning struck but eventually came back to earth as an NFL journeyman. Only as quickly as you can say Trent Dilfer, it all changed again. In 2009, Warner was back to his 2001 form, leading Arizona to the Super Bowl. As if by magic, the quick fire release was back, the uncanny accuracy and the solid decision making returned and Warner was once again an elite NFL quarterback.

The truth is none of what happened to Warner is in the least surprising. American's obsession with quarterbacks has became so myopic as to make them forget that (gasp) football is actually a team game with all of the inter dependencies implied with 22 men running around at full speed in organized chaos. Warner was great early with the Rams because he played behind the league's best offensive line who afforded him all day to survey the field and find the league's best cadre of offensive weapons - Marshall Faulk, Issac Bruce, and Tory Holt. With the comfort and confidence that comes from being able to grab a beer and a brat before being hurried by a pass rusher and getting the ball to a bunch of Olympic track athletes, Warner became an MVP. The recipe was nearly identical this year as Arizona's offensive line became one of the league's best in protecting the passer while Bolden and Fitzgerald caught anything and everything thrown their way, allowing Warner to once again look like Dan Marino. And for those of you who think Warner is some kind of anomaly, how do you explain Tom Brady going from future hall of famer to truly awful in his last Super Bowl performance. The Patriots sieve like offensive line had him running for his life and even when he did have time his rhythm and confidence were shot.

Which leads us back to Cal. Last years passing game woes were a diabolical mixture of poor QB play, the worst pass protection (you need to look beyond sacks allowed to include hurries and flushes of which there were many) in the Tedford era and a group of receivers who couldn't get open much less catch the rare perfectly thrown passes they were thrown.

Playing quarterback is the most mentally and emotionally demanding position on the field. Finding a comfort zone and building confidence are critical. Even if you aren't being sacked every play, hurries are ever bit as daunting. Forcing balls in because your receivers have not gotten separation and then seeing them drop balls that are right in their hands impact the psyche of the quarterback. The bottom line is that the reasons the Bears passing game was stuck in neutral last season went far beyond Riley and Longshore's struggles.

So what does all this mean for the 2009 campaign? On the surface of it, good news abounds. Starting off up front, where the Bears return eight players who have started including their best past protector from 2007, LT Mike Tepper. Tepper's return is even bigger than his 335lb frame might suggest. Tepper will protect Riley's blindside providing Riley with a sense of comfort missing all last season and allowing Schwartz to move to RT where his still evolving pass blocking skills can be worked on with much less pressure. Even if the injury bug hits the OL as it did in 2008, Cal's combination of talent, experience and depth have never been better. It's hard to imagine the boys up front not providing significantly better protection this year than last.

As for the receiving corps, this news there is equally positive. All three starters from the Emerald Bowl return including Verran Tucker, who established himself as the Bears most consistent wideout. Experience is huge at WR at players get used to the speed of the game and fully understand the concentration required to succeed. Expect Boateng and Tucker to take big steps forward. Joining that duo are two youngsters who actually proved to be more impressive this spring than the incumbents. Sophomore's Marvin Jones and Alex Lagemann are poised to become Kevin Riley's security blankets with their combination of size and sure hands. Add in stud sophomore Michael Calvin, who the Bear coaches considered their best receiver going into 2008 and who missed almost all of last year with a knee injury and you suddenly have a WR group that goes at least six deep with a nice blend of experience and young talent.

Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen are both exceptional pass catchers out of both the backfield and the slot providing Riley with good check down options when his primary receivers are covered and giving him the ability to throw 5 yard passes that go the distance - always a favorite of quarterbacks everywhere.

No doubt Kevin Riley is going to have step up in all phases of his game. He has to hit the open receiver consistently something that he failed to do last year. He needs to get rid of the ball quicker and most importantly rediscover the swagger and playmaking moxie that marked his 2007 debut. Riley knows this offense cold and he has the line and playmakers around him to succeed. His biggest challenge may be ignoring the Bear fans and pundits who want to put all of the responsibility and weight of the upcoming year on his shoulders. If Kevin can close his ears and open his eyes to how his teammates are putting him in a position where he just needs to be average to get them to a BCS game, he will almost certainly relax and once again we will see the Kevin Riley who led Cal to the comeback win against Air Force in 2007.

P10 Basketball Prediction

2009-01-01T18:35:00.001-08:00

Many of the so called experts are deriding the Pac 10 as having a down year in 2008-9, especially when compared to last years tremendous showing. It's true that the conference has fewer elite teams than last year, but outside of Oregon State, there are nine teams in the conference capable of playing in the post season. By any measure other than last year, this is a very deep conference and one that will be as intriguing as any in recent memory to watch. As few as thirteen and perhaps twelve wins will earn the conference championship this season.

1.) UCLA: If the Bruins can go to the final four for the fourth straight season then people are going to soon forget John Wooden and start calling Ben Howland the true wizard of Westwood. UCLA welcomes back Darren Collison and Josh Shipp and introduces one of the most talented freshman in the country in Jrue Holiday. If that embarassment of back court riches weren't enough, Jerime Anderson, Malcolm Lee and veteran roll player Mike Roll are all capable players. Unfortunately, as full as the cup is in the backcourt, that's how empty the Bruins are up front. Alfred Aboya and James Keefe are the only returning frontcourt players with any meaningful experience and neither is going to make anyone forget Kevin Love or Richard M'Boute M'boute. A trio of youngsters show promise for the future in the blocks (Dragovic, Gordon and Morgan) but none are ready to contribute meaningfully today. Howland's savvy and his stellar backcourt give UCLA a slight nod as the favorite to win the conference but they are far from the dominating teams we've come to associate with the Bruins.

2.) Tie

Arizona State: Herb Sendek has turned around the Devils program in only two short seasons. The catalyst for this quick three sixty is sophomore wing player, James Harden. Harden is not huge, nor is he explosive athletically but instead is just simply really, really good. He can shoot it from deep or take it to the hole and is adept a rebounder, passer and defender as he is a scorer. Despite some talent around him as Harden goes so goes ASU. Jeff Pendergraph returns for his senior season in the post. He's capable of being dominant down low but lacks consistency. There are some decent role players to fill in around Harden and Pendergraph including sophomores Ty Abbot and Rihard Kuksiks and they along with Sendek's disciplined style should help him complete his rebuilding work by getting the Sun Devils to the tournament

USC: Tim Floyd has the most well rounded and talented squad in the conference. He returns the conferences best shot blocker in Taj Gibson alongside a heady point guard in Daniel Hackett and a solid shooting threat on the perimeter in Dwight Lewis. All three are vets of the P10 wars. Add to the mix is the most explosive athlete to come into the P10 in years. DeMar Derozan is a slasher extrordinaire with huge hops and blinding quickness on the wing. He's started to come into his own the last few games for the Trojans and as he gains consistency and finds some chemistry with his elder teammates, USC will become a force. Expect the Trojans to start slow and finish strong

4.) Tie

Arizona: Despite losing a coaching legend in Lute Olson, the Wildcats return two upperclassmen who will likely have long careers in the NBA. Chase Budinger is a wonderfully athletic wing who can shoot the lights out from deep. Jordan Hill is a big man who explodes off the floor and seems to have found his inner Rick Mahorn after playing way too softly his first two seasons in Tucson. Add in a very heady and mentally tough point guard in Nic Wise and you have a trio capable of leading this team to the top of the conference. A complete lack of depth and the upheaval of Lute's departure will lead to inconsistency and drop them a notch below the top teams in the Pac 10.

Cal: MIke Montgomery let it be known early and often that this years Cal team would struggle. Despite his expectation management, the cupboard is far from bare in Berkeley. Montgomery has five players in their third or fourth year in college including as strong a backcourt as you will find outside of Westwood. The light has gone on for point guard Jerome Randle and his one man fast breaks and deep shooting range will help him gain All Pac 10 status. Patrick Christopher is a big time wing scorer with shut down defensive potential and Theo Robertson is the steady jack of all trades who does whatever is needed for the Bears to win. A thin frontcourt is all that stands between Cal and the top teams in the conference. Montgomery has instantly made Cal a tougher mental and physical team and they should be right on the bubble come NCAA tourney time.

6.) Tie

Washington: Despite Lorenzo Romar's best efforts to the contrary, UW should find itself back in the postseason this year. Jon Brockman is the conference's best big man and is a lock for a double double whenever he steps on the floor. Underperforming prep stars Justin Dentmon and Quincy Poindexter finally have settled into being solid role players while incoming frosh point guard Isiah Thomas is a star in waiting. This team has the necessary depth, raw talent and experience to compete for the Pac 10 title. Romar's inability to develop players is the only thing holding the Huskies back.

Stanford: Johnny Dawkins has his Cardinal team exceeding expectations early on. Stanford enters the Pac 10 race undefeated despite the loss of Los Lopez. The team has shifted effortlessly from a slower tempo, inside dominated team to one that uses its shooting, perimeter pressure defense and experience to play consistently well. Anthony Goods is a superb deep shooter and an underrated defender. Lawrence Hill is a versatile baseline player who can defend and score in the post as well as stepping out and knocking down long jumpers. Mitch Johnson is yet another in a long line of supper savvy winning point guards at Stanford. Beyond those three, the depth is questionable and the Cardinal have almost no post players of consequence.

8th - Washington State: Tony Bennett's team lost a lot with Derrick Low and Kyle Weaver graduating. While he welcomes in a talented recruiting class, it will take some time for the newcomers to master the intricate defense and make no mistakes offense that Bennett favors. Former role players, Taylor Rochestie and Devin Harmeling are now being asked to be go to scorers and the transition has been far from smooth. Big man Aron Baynes is still a year away from counting himself among the conference's best players in the paint. The Cougars best players is freshman Klay Thompson, who seems destined to be a star but his and this teams best days are likely at least a year away.

9th - Oregon: Ernie Kent is a Lorenzo Romar clone. A fabulous recruiter who wins when his teams are filled with seniors and lose far more than they should when he lacks senior leadership, Kent has a very talented but even younger team this season. Tajeun Porter is an undersized shooting guard who can fill it up when left alone but struggles when teams focus on him. Joevan Catron is a "nice" but very undersized post player and Michael Dunigan, Garret Sims and Kamryon Brown are all talented youngsters but not yet ready for prime time. Expect Oregon to be competitive the second time around in conference play, but they will lose early and often the first half of the Pac 10 slate.

10th - Oregon State: Well at least his brother in law is President. New Beaver coach Craig Robinson is otherwise in for a very unmemorable season. This program has been in a constant state of rebuilding and while OSU has some talent, the team has forgotten what it's like to win games and unfortunately that problem is about to get worse. The Beavers will be lucky to steal a game this year in conference play.

A Turtle Trap

2008-09-10T11:14:00.000-07:00

If I'm Jeff Tedford, I'm sweating extra hard this week. The Bears are in a no win position heading to Maryland. This is a game that will be far more difficult than folks realize.

- Maryland looked awful barely beating Delaware and even worse losing to MTSU. As a result, Cal is a 14 point favorite on the road against a BCS conference team that went to a bowl last year and returns most of its starters. If Cal wins big, everyone will shrug. If it's close, eyebrows will be raised and if the Bears lose, the sky will be falling. Not much upside here.
- Maryland has a ton of talent, at least on par with Michigan State. They have a future NFL running back, center and WR on offense and a defense that returns a ton of starters after finishing 2007 in the top 25 in total defense nationally
- Think of the Terps like Cal was in the Keith Gilbertson era. Talented and capable of beating anyone on a given day but poorly coached and wildly inconsistent. Moreover, they play down to the level of their competition.
- This is Maryland's marquee game of the year. The fan and player interest in Delaware and MTSU were close to zero. This is the game they've been thinking about all summer. It's on national TV, their pride is at stake and they know they're playing a ranked team with a lot of talent. They are going to bring it on Saturday.
- No Pac 10 team travels as far this season as California will for this game. The team flies basically all day on Friday and then has to be ready to play at 9am PST the next day.
- The Cal team is young and has to be feeling good about themselves after the first two games and a newly minted top 25 appearance. When they look at film of Maryland and their 1-1 record against bad competition, how can the Bears not feel a bit of overconfidence?

That's a whole lot of hand wringing given the evidence to the contrary. Despite all signs pointing towards a classic "trap" game, Cal has some big advantages. Maryland's passing offense is non-existent. Their O line has struggled to give their QB time and even with time, he's not been accurate. Their D line has yet to create any pass rush even against the less than formidable Hen and Blue Raider offensive lines. Moreover, Maryland looks sloppy and undisciplined. The Bears should have a chip on their shoulder after last years meltdown and no doubt they will be excited about the opportunity to play in front of a national TV audience.

So which is it? A blowout win for the Bears or a Turtle trap? I strongly suspect Cal will win but unless the Maryland players have given up completely on their coach and mail the game in, I believe it will be a lot more reminiscent of the Bears victory over Michigan State than the pummeling in the Palouse from last week.

Soups on after blowout in Pullman

2008-09-08T19:37:00.001-07:00

It’s tough not to feel a bit of light headed giddiness coming off the 66-3 thrashing the Bears gave the Washington State Cougars on Saturday. Clearly, WSU is in the midst of a rebuilding process and are more than a few players shy of having an actual Pac 10 football program. At the same time, they weren’t materially less talented than the Stanford and UW teams that embarrassed Cal last year. And, it’s worth noting that Michigan State bounced back from their loss in Berkeley to steam roll Eastern Michigan by a score of 42-10. Still, the question of how good the 2008 Bears are at this point in the season is one where the answer is more minestrone than chicken broth.

Here are a few thoughts after the first two games:

• Kevin Riley is very talented but is still a work in progress. Riley looked a little bit out of sorts in his first real performance in front of a hostile crowd. He missed several wide open receivers and seemed to be holding onto the ball longer than necessary. That said, it was nice to see Nate Longshore bounce back after his MSU debacle and look confident and on target in mop up duty.
• Another positive in the passing game was the first career catch for Mike Calvin and the first catches in a Bear uniform by Nyan Boateng. Outside of Sean Young, the WR corps is still an unknown and the emergence of a big play threat is something Tedford is counting on as the season progresses.
• The offensive line looks like the best unit Cal has had under Jeff Tedford. While it’s easy to focus on all world center Alex Mack, the big surprises are the dominating performance of the guards. Both Norris Malele and undersized but very athletic Chris Guarnero have impressed. Redshirt freshman tackle Mitchell Schwartz looks like a future star and when Mike Tepper gets healthy, the depth across the entire line should be able to withstand any unexpected injuries.
• Jahvid Best has been the primary beneficiary of the blocking up front and he showed that once he has a seam, he’s gone baby gone.
• It’s worth noting that both WSU and MSU’s defensive lines were seen as the weakest elements of their defenses coming into the season. We’ll know more when Cal faces a very stout Arizona State front four.
• Cameron Morrah didn’t catch any passes against the Cougars but his blocking was impressive. If he make himself a consistently good blocker, watch out as he’s already the most dangerous pass catching TE in the Tedford era
• Play calling by Frank Cignetti has thus far felt very Tedford like
• How can you not be happy with our defense? Very stout against the run and we’re seeing breakout performances from Syd Quan Thompson and Tyson Alualu. Both are playing like future NFLers.
• The run defense in particular has stood out but again it’s hard to get too excited once you take into account the OLs the Bears have faced in the first two games. While Michigan State has a potent offense, its weak point looks to be its young offensive line. WSU? Let me put it this way, when Stanford’s OL walks by, the Cougars front five lower their eyes.
• I’ve heard criticism of the pass rush, but I think it’s premature. The front three defensive lineman have all gotten good push on passing downs and in particular Alualu and Davis have collapsed pockets even while facing double teams. The 3-4 means that most passing downs, Bob Gregory is going to blitz at least one linebacker. To my eye, the LBs are still getting used to being picked up by a tackle or guard rather than a TE or RB but given time, I think we’ll see this group get more comfortable and effective. Regardless, even when we choose to send only the three down lineman, we’re not giving as much time to opposing quarterbacks as we did last year when they had time to send out for lunch and still complete passes
• If there’s a concern on defense at this early stage, it’s the play of our safeties. Despite his interception and one highlight reel hit on Saturday, Bernard Hicks’ struggles against the Spartans continued in Pullman. Hicks seems to react a step slow to a thrown ball and his penchant to hit high and not wrap up continues to result in broken tackles. Hicks is plenty fast enough and has the experience you like at free safety but he needs to step up his game or he may be replaced by Brett Johnson. Marcus Ezeff played better on Saturday but has yet to get back to where he was prior to his injury last season
• Special teams continue to be “special”. While kickoffs were better, we’ve only gone from abysmal to plain bad. Let’s hope the progress continues. Bryan Anger was clearly impaired by his brace but more importantly needs to learn to catch the ball. His second drop in tow games doesn’t inspire confidence. David Seawright has been solid in his placekicking but to my eye, he needs to get the ball up in the air to avoid being blocked once he is forced to attempt a longer field goal
• One thing you have to like about a blowout is the opportunity to play the younger players. For example, DJ Holt, Robert Mullins and Mychal Kendricks all looked good in extended duty which speaks well to our future LB corps.

Observations from MSU game

2008-09-02T20:09:00.000-07:00

Despite some sloppy play, particularly around special teams and dumb penalties, the debut performance for the 2008 Bears was a solid one.

In particular, we discovered that this year’s defense is going to be stout against the run and that many of the younger players whom Cal is counting on in 2008 are not only talented but ready to contribute.

Let’s break things down by position groups:

QBs: Kevin Riley played a solid game overall and most importantly made plays at crucial moments. Despite three drops by the Bears new WR corps, Riley’s numbers were a very respectable as he completed 70% of his passes with no interceptions. He looked poised and in command throughout the game. Nate Longshore came off the bench for two exciting series. At a time when Cal’s offense through the air was stuck in neutral, Longshore comes in and immediately hits Cameron Morrah with a 50 yard bomb that gets the Bears knocking on MSUs goal line. Reversing his success more quickly than John McCains selection of Sarah Palin, Nate went on to throw an interception that nearly went 100yds for a Spartans TD. Longshore made a quick read on a seam route and either there was a miscommunication with the receiver or Nate never saw the safety as it wasn’t even close to being caught by a Bear. The very next possession, on a very similar pass route, Nate throws a pick six to the same safety in an area where there were three white shirts and no gold ones. You have to feel for Longshore, whose confidence is clearly not high after the Riley selection as the starter followed by a dismal performance coming off the bench. But clearly, Tedford made the right call on his starter.

RBs: Jahvid Best is a spectacular football player. He’s improved his quickness and his decisiveness from last season and he simply looks like he plays at a different speed than the defense. He’s more elusive and physical than one normally sees in a speed back which allows him to be equally effective between the tackles as running outside. I do fear that 25+ touches a game may be too many for him. His running style is such that he will take some big hits and staying healthy is definitely a concern. Shane Vereen is not playing at 100% yet still out ran the entire MSU defense. His pass catching abilities are tremendous and when he does get healthy, his quicks and speed will rival Best. Will Taufouo may be the best all around FB Cal has had in many years. He’s not just a good blocker, he’s a great one. Outside of Alex Mack, Will may be the 2nd most important part of our running game, even ahead of our talented tailbacks.

WR/TE: Let’s start with the positives. Cameron Morrah is a big time weapon in Cignetti's passing offense. He can really run and is very fluid in getting in and out of his breaks. The one concern is his need to become a better blocker. If he fails to improve beyond what we saw against MSU, Cignetti will be tempted not to play him as often on running downs which will reduce his impact as it tips off the defense. Sean Young had a wonderful game. He is a crisp route runner and has the quickness to get behind coverage. He’s less a play maker (think Robert Jordan and not Hawkins or DJax) than might be ideal but clearly he will be an important part of the rotation. After those two, this may be the position group of most concern after the first game. Nyan Boateng displayed hands that would only impress Roberto Duran and Mike Calvin’s toe injury limited him to a handful of plays. Between Calvin, Ross and true freshman Marvin Jones, one of them needs to establish themselves as the Bears primary playmaker in the passing game. If Calvin can’t get healthy, it may very well be Jones, whose body control and size make him a real threat on jump balls.

OL: I thought the run blocking was better than the pass protection on Saturday, but Cal only gave up one sack so that aspect of things was far from a disaster. MSUs DE collapsed the pocket more often than we are used to seeing with a Jim Michalzik coached line resulting at times in Kevin Riley throwing before he wanted. Given Teofilo and Schwartz’s lack of experience at tackle, that isn’t surprising and their pass protection skills should improve as the season progresses. Norris Malele was a monster run blocking in what may have been his best game as a Bear. With Schwartz, Teofilo and Guarnero all basically newbies on the line and with Tepper likely to return in the next few weeks, I’d say the best is yet to come.

DL: I was very, very impressed with the starting three down lineman. Derrick Hill’s one tackle doesn’t jump out at you but he controlled the middle of the line all day long and was a huge part why the Cal LBs make a ton of tackles. Alualu was the star of the group this day as he practically lived in the Spartans backfield. Rulon Davis faced double teams for much of the day and still played well. Bob Gregory, the Bears defensive coordinator had Davis line up at NT in obvious pass rush situations, which seemed strange given his ability to collapse the pocket from the outside. Of the backups, I thought Kendrick Payne and Kevin Browner, in particular, acquitted themselves well.

LB: They looked awfully fast and basically eliminated Javon Ringer from having any big gains. Felder was a beast and is in my opinion, the Bears best all around LB. Anyone he touches goes down and he seemed to consistently be in the right place at the right time. His one weakness is in coverage and he did get beat by their TE a few times. Worrell Williams looks much more decisive as he was able to read and react faster than I’ve seen in the past. He over ran some plays and still misses some tackles so there’s clearly room for growth. Follett struggled as a pass rusher alongside the three man line. He was often matched up with MSUs tackle who engulfed him on a regular basis. However, his tackling was strong and he made a couple of nice reads resulting in tackles for losses. Eddie Young didn’t stand out other than not making a mistake which given his relative lack of experience is a good thing. Ditto for Devin Bishop.

CB: SQT looked like an all-Pac 10 player against MSU. He comes up and plays the run better than any Cal cornerback in memory and he was superb in pass coverage. He got beat only once that I saw in single coverage and by the end of the game had MSU looking the other way on almost every play. SQT needs to get better at playing the ball when we go to a two deep zone as he’s clearly more comfortable playing bump and run. Darian Hagan showed that he has star potential with his ability to play the ball in the air. He’s got great quickness and seems to have a knack to be exactly where the ball is being thrown. Hagan needs to spend some time with Boateng working on his hands as by my count he dropped three sure interceptions (not counting the one he did get but the refs gave to the Spartans). Hagan did struggle a bit with the bigger MSU receivers pushing off on him while running out routes but he will learn.

Safety: Along with WR, this was my other position area of concern. Marcus Ezeff racked up nine tackles and no doubt he is a sure tackler. He also looked decent when matched up in man coverage. The problem was his ability to find and then play the ball when it was in the air. The Bears had a rough day with their zone and most of it was their safeties not being in position to make plays on the ball. Bernard Hicks had the same problem and then also forget he has a pair of arms. His shoulder tackle cost the Bears a touchdown on Dell’s catch late in the game and he was lucky another shoulder to shoulder hit without wrapping up didn’t result in another six points for MSU. I suspect Ezeff will get better in this aspect of his game and that Brett Johnson will start to play more and more at the expense of Hicks.

Punter: Wow. Wooooow. Does this guy have a leg or what? Anger is a big time weapon for Cal. He needs to learn to get the ball of more quickly and let’s hope he’s taking lessons from Benji Molina on how he catches Todd Lincecum so he’s better prepared for one of Nick Sundberg’s fastballs. The biggest concern is his health as he sprained his knee on his final pouch attempt is questionable for the WSU game.

Kicking: David Seawright looked poised and solid on his one Field Goal try and the five extra points. Kickoffs? That’s a whole different ball of wax. The kicks were short, flat and easily returnable, which resulted in MSU having excellent field position all day long. This needs to get figured out and fast. If you assume Cal will kick off at least four times a game, we’re giving our opponents a 60+ yard advantage if they average starting at their own 35 instead of the twenty. I watched a lot of college football this past weekend and didn’t see a single team that couldn’t consistently get the ball to at least the ten yard line with a high ball that was easily covered.

Coaching: I could quibble here and there with new offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti's playcalling (waited too long to stretch the field with deep passes and not enough stretch running plays to utilize Best’s speed) but I thought overall he did a nice job. On defense, Gregory game planned to shut down their running game and then blitz Hoyer into turning the ball over. We stuffed Ringer and the Spartans ground game and Hoyer’s PER of 103 was well below his average, but we failed to come up with interceptions when we had the chance. I also thought that we left our corners and safeties on an island far too often in obvious passing downs and I’d like to see us lose the three man rush save for when we have a 20+ point lead in the 4th quarter.

Conclusions: I believe MSU will go on to have a solid year and could win as many as nine games. Against that quality of an opponent for us to win the battle at the LOS on both sides of the ball as demonstrably as we did is quite impressive. The talent and depth on this Bears team are obvious. Riley and the defense as a whole showed they were ready to battle hard in a close game giving hope that our leadership issues are behind us. All that said, we have a young offensive squad with virtually no experience on special teams and while Washington State is not Michigan State this year, playing in the Palouse versus the friendly confines of Memorial Stadium will provide a stiff test for our untested newcomers.

Dealing with Adversity

2008-08-25T21:31:00.000-07:00

The results of the 2008 football season will reflect whether this Cal team and the football program as a whole can take a step forward in its mental toughness and resiliency. Coming off a miserable season where the Bears went from undefeated and #2 in the nation to a team that barely showed up in dismal losses to Pac 10 bottom dwellers Stanford and Washington, this has become issue #1.

Can this team and this program find what was so obviously missing last year - The leadership, the competitive fire and the never back down attitude that are such necessary ingredients to winning college football games? Coach Tedford has gone out of his way to recognize these missing ingredients and changes have been made. No longer will Tedford manage the offense, instead he hired Frank Cignetti to lead the offense and call the plays. He challenged the team to find leaders and for its seniors to speak out and set the pace. He found insight and inspiration in a book titled, “Talent is never enough” and adopted its principles.

Whether any or all of this will translate to the team’s performance is to be determined. But make no mistake; this is far and away the biggest question for Cal football going into this season. Bigger than the quarterback competition, the loss of the WR corps or questions about the run defense. In trying to project how things might turn out, it’s sometimes helpful to look back in time. The subject of mental fortitude and the ability to overcome adversity are highly subjective topics and applying empirical data to this issue will by no means provide answers but it may provide some perspective.

Let’s look back at the Tedford era and remind ourselves how the Bears have performed when under adversity:

Winning on the road in the Pac 10 is never easy and to do so requires a certain amount of toughness and the ability to perform under less than ideal conditions:
· Tedford’s Bears have gone 12 and 13 for a winning percentage of 48%. That number strikes me as solid but not spectacular. Comparing it to USC and Oregon State may provide some relative perspective as those are the Pac Ten's top 2 programs outside of Cal over the past five years. USCs record is unsurprisingly much better at 20-5 and Oregon State’s is somewhat surprisingly also markedly better at 60% (All of the Oregon State information cited here goes back only to 2003 which was when Mike Riley took over as their head coach)

How about winning big games? They don’t come any bigger than rivalry games and bowl games:
· Cal has shined winning 5 of 6 Big Games while going 4-1 in bowls

Others might define big games by those that occur at the end of the season where the stakes get raised significantly:
· In games played on November 1st and later (excluding the aforementioned Bowl Games), Tedford’s Cal teams have gone 13-9 for a winning percentage of 59%. That’s not too shabby but below Tedford’s overall winning percentage of 66% and perhaps not as impressive when the Stanford games are removed (making the record 8-8). The trend is also interesting as Cal went 9-2 during this period in Tedford’s first three seasons and only 4-7 since. To make these numbers more real, let’s compare them again to the Beavers and the Trojans. Oregon State under Riley has won 63% of their post November games while USC has a remarkable 96% winning percentage since 2002 in games after October.

Adversity can perhaps best be measure by in game challenges:
· When tied or trailing after three quarters, Cal is 7-17 for a 29% winning percentage. Trend wise, the Bears were nearly .500 at 5-7 during Tedford’s first three seasons and a much more anemic 2-10 these past three years. This is a particularly uninformative number in the absence of relative data and citing only two Pac 10 teams improves things only marginally but USC has a .500 record under the same circumstances while Oregon State is at 24%. Riley's Beavers trend line is more positive than Cal's as they were 0 and 7 his first two years before rallying for a 5-9 record the past three seasons.

How about games decided by ten or fewer points?
· Cal is 19-24 or 44% in close games but 2 and 1 in games decided in overtime. Not exactly clutch but the numbers don’t say chokers either.

Getting beyond the numbers, there are several factors folks look at when trying to understand the mental makeup of the team. The first notion is that a team takes on its coaches personality. In Tedford, Cal has a no-nonsense, straight shooting and hyper intense coach whose integrity and character are unimpeachable. Under Tedford’s leadership the Bears have been a highly disciplined group that is well prepared every time they stop on the field. It’s also worth noting that this is his first head coaching experience and as the program grows and improves, facing new challenges and at time dizzying heights of success, Tedford is experiencing those same things for the first time as the top dog. All that said, Tedford is not a fiery emotional leader or an overtly rah-rah guy. While he’s clearly a highly competitive and determined person, he’s better known for not wanting to run up the score and avoiding saying anything inflammatory about other coaches or programs. This is in sharp contrast to the highly emotional types such as Mike Riley and Pete Carroll whose teams we have compared to Cal in this article. It’s also very different from the Bruce Snyder coached Bears who were as apt to get an ill timed personal foul as they were to win a big game.

What about the players? In the past, Cal’s leaders have been obvious and easy to see to even the most casual fan. From Hardy Nickerson to Mike Pawlawski to Eric Zomalt to Jerrot Willard to Tony Gonzalez to Donnie McClesky and Desmond Bishop, the Bears have had men whose stellar play on the field and emotional verve made them natural leaders. Last year and looking forward to this year, it’s less obvious who those folks were and will be. Alex Mack is clearly that type of a player and his intensity at practice is second to no one but offenses usually look to their quarterback for this type of leadership. That may in fact have factored into the coaches decision to start Kevin Riley over Nate Longshore. Riley’s demeanor on the field speaks to more intensity and competitive fire than the understated Longshore and in his two appearances, Riley definitely did well in the face of significant adversity, leading one near comeback and another successful one. It’s interesting to ponder whether the Bears success in the classroom and its relative absence of the off the field problemshas a side effect relative to finding these fanatical football players. I’m certainly not advocating anything other than the current direction the coaches have gone with their recruiting evaluations as never before have Cal fans and alums been able to be equally proud of a football program both on and off the field. That said, I wondered prior to last season where the junkyard dog, back down from no one, never give up, want them at your back in a dark alley type of players were on the team. I don't think we ever found them.

After raising a provocative question and supplying some data and some pure conjecture for contemplation, let me give you my conclusion.

I believe the Bears will bounce back and have a far more successful year this season than what was experienced in 2007, in large part because of the improved mental toughness and fortitude of the 2008 team. Here’s why I have confidence in this years team finding what was missing last season:

- The changes Tedford has made on his coaching staff and in his decision to delegate control of the offense addresses this issue head on. Bringing in Tosh Lupoi to coach the defensive line and Al Simmons to handle the defensive backs has immediately increased the intensity and competitive fire of the defense. The veteran Simmons and the very young Lupoi have an emotional style that gives the team something that Tedford personally lacks. Coach Tedford now has the time to monitor and adjust the teams emotional and mental fitness as a result of not handling the offense
- Senior leadership is obvious this year on both sides of the ball. Alex Mack came back to Cal to win a national championship and he practices and prepares as if he is planning on nothing less. As mentioned above, Riley's leadership style at QB is as important as his big arm and quick feet. On defense, Rulon Davis’ maturity and his non stop motor set a cadence for the rest of the defense to follow. Zach Follett and Worrell Williams have both been outspoken about leading this team and I believe the defense will in fact set the emotional tone for the 2008 Bears
- Expectations are lower this year and perhaps more importantly, the program has gotten used to the pressure brought on by higher expectations. From the lessons in 2006 from visiting Knoxville to last years collapse, these Cal players not only expect to win and win often, they know what it feels like when it all goes wrong. The pressure will be off and when adversity does arise, they will be prepared.
- The absence of “me first” players who saw themselves as bigger than the program. One of the primary advantages of the perennial powerhouses in college football is not simply that they can attract 5 star talent. It’s that those big time prep players know without a doubt that they are not bigger than the tradition and winning legacy of their school. Cal is building that tradition but is not there yet. In fact, in recent years, Cal has probably done more to promote individual players than the program as a whole. That has led to a small number of prima donnas whose own agenda superseded that of the teams. Those players are now gone.

If Jeff Tedford were to lose his mind and ask me for advice on this topic, the one thing I would suggest is that when he recruits student athletes that he take their heart and their desire to win football games as perhaps even more important than their latent talent. I’ll take 2 and 3 star players who will do anything to win games rather than 4 and 5 star talents who either lack the desire to truly compete in the face of adversity or are simply out for themselves. That’s not to say that talent isn’t important, but as Jeff recently read, it’s never enough.

2008 Pac-10 Projection

2008-08-20T15:26:00.001-07:00

2008 Predicted Pacific Ten Conference Final Standings:

1. USC 8-1
2. Cal 7-2
3. Oregon 6-3
4. ASU 5-4
5. Arizona 5-4
6. Oregon State 4-5
7. Stanford 3-6
8. UCLA 3-6
9. UW 2-7
10. WSU 2-7

USC:

Pete Carroll continues to assemble the best depth of talent in all of college football. As a result he is often overlooked for his tremendous teaching and motivational abilities as a coach. His USC teams play at a consistently high level of intensity and rarely hurt themselves with mistakes. In 2008, the Trojans defense should be exceptional, look for more forced turnovers and improved special teams play. The offense is not nearly at the same level. The quarterback position is a major question with the likely starter being an unproven Mark Sanchez. Sanchez went down with a knee injury in camp this summer and neither of his backups have yet to distinguish themselves. Compounding the concern at quarterback is USCs offensive line. It’s a group with potential but it’s lacking in experience and depth. In addition, playmakers need to be found at both the WR and TE positions. If the offensive line can come together, a strong running game should emerge helping the Trojans young quarterbacks find their footing. Look for USC to get hit with a rare home lose to Ohio State and another game in the first half of the Pac 10 slate.

California

The depth and talent in Berkeley are superior to all but USC within the conference. Had the Bears not done their best Van De Velde imitation in late October last season, we’d be talking about them as a legitimate threat to USC’s conference dominance. Instead, we’re left wondering if this programs psyche and confidence can be resuscitated. On paper, the team looks impressive. On offense, it starts up front where Cal sports the team’s deepest and most talented offensive line in the Tedford era. The running game should be strong as only the Trojans have a better stable of running backs. Playmakers need to be established at WR, but they will be helped by having a healthy fifth year senior and a dynamic sophomore both of whom have played well in the past throwing them the ball. The Bear’s defense should be improved with 8 returning starters. However, they have shifted to a 3-4 set, which could take time to master, and the run defense has to improve for Cal to play well. How this team deals with adversity will point to whether they challenge USC for the conference title as they did two years ago or end up near the bottom of the conference as they did last season.

Oregon:

This will be the Ducks best defensive team in many years. The secondary is as good as USC’s and they return the conference’s top sack master at DE. On offense, the Ducks offensive line will be among the nation’s best and will allow new stars to establish themselves at wide receiver and quarterback. The schedule is ugly and depth is a concern almost everywhere. Oregon will need to stay healthy, especially at quarterback, linebacker and defensive tackle if they plan to contend for the Pac 10 crown.

Arizona State:

Erickson made a great first impression and did so with only decent talent. The schedule is a lot less favorable this year and much of the talent that was there last year has left for the NFL. Carpenter is a good but not great quarterback and the offensive line only looks good when compared to UCLA’s. If the offensive line can find itself, there is talent at WR and RB. The defense came alive under Erickson and should again be solid if unspectacular. Bolden and Nolan are both studs in the secondary. ASU has three very good defensive lineman but little depth. Expect ASU to come back to earth as Erickson works to stockpile AAA talent.

Arizona:

It couldn’t happen to a less likable guy but Stoops will finally get over the hump this year. The offense will be solid with Grigsby as a run threat and Tuitama and a very strong WR corps mastering the spread offense. If they can stay healthy, the offensive line looks like the best crew Stoops has had. Last year’s defense disappointed but they should bounce back to the hard hitting bunch Stoops is known to develop. Depth is a concern almost everywhere but receiver and special teams play could be a nightmare.

Oregon State:

Mike Riley is a superb coach and despite having to rebuild his defense, this team will be competitive. Moevao will establish himself as a reliable P10 QB with a solid group of wide receivers led by Sammie Stroughter who could be the conference’s best wideout . The defense must replace nine starters but has some talent coming in to mitigate the losses. On both sides of the ball, the Beavers ability to create a run game and stop the opponents run will be the keys to the season

Stanford:

A staunch defense and a further injection of Harbaugh’s raw optimism will result in one more win that last season. Stanford has a very strong front seven on defense and they finally have a decent offensive line to help their offense. The Cardinal lacks any offensive playmakers including at quarterback and the secondary will be spotty. While it’s highly unlikely they will surprise USC or Cal again, this Stanford team will be more competitive and take another step forward in the Harbaugh rebuilding process

UCLA:

Rick Neuheisel is going to just have to grin and bear it. Despite a stout defense, UCLA does not have enough to overcome the conference’s most anemic offense. The Bruins offensive line will be reminiscent of the groups Stanford put out under Buddy Teevens and Walt Harris. Look for sacks galore and a non-existent running game. The talent and depth at QB is only marginally better which will waste a strong corps of running backs and wide receivers. The defense should keep games close but that won’t be enough to keep UCLA solidly in the bottom half in the conference.

Washington:

A brutal schedule will eviscerate any hope Ty Willingham had of keeping his job. His Dawgs will play hard and smart but that won’t be enough to overcome a lack of talent. Locker is an absolute stud at QB but injuries and a lack of playmakers around him will dull his impact. The defense is more talented than last years group but very young. Given UW’s recruiting momentum, Willingham would turn this around in another year but the UW faithful don’t have the patience.

Washington State:

Look for a better than expected offensive performance and an every bit as bad as advertised defense from the Cougars. They will upset a couple of folks at home but will endure some bad beatings on the road. New coach Paul Wullf will improve this teams discipline and consistency but unless he can recruit, he may have a short stay in Pullman.

Observations from Cal Scrimmage

2008-08-15T08:21:00.000-07:00

Run offense: The offense looked good running ball and in fact until the tail end of the scrimmage when the offensive line was made up of 2nd and 3rd string players going against a similar group on defense, they were able to get significant push off the ball all day. Running inside was an easy four to five yards a pop while going outside almost routinely created space for the tailbacks to break off big plays. I was particularly impressed with the run blocking of Chris Guarnero, the sophomore center who looks to have made the shift to guard as he started with the first team on the left side and Mitchell Schwartz, the mammoth right tackle. To my eye, all of the TEs were effective in run blocking including Cameron Morrah, who had previously been described as an indifferent blocker. Jahvid Best did not participate as he was nursing a minor leg injury of some sort. Shane Vereen got the start and looked solid although I have to believe he is still not 100%. While far from pedestrian in his cuts and acceleration, Shane was noticeably less explosive. Tracy Slocum was very effective as well. Slocum runs with great body lean and a low center of gravity, making him tough to tackle.

Passing Offense: This was a mixed bag. Protection was decent but certainly not up to the standards of recent Cal offensive lines. The second team line especially struggled to contain the rush and the running backs had their share of problems with blitzing linebackers. All in all though, the QBs (even running with the 2nd and 3rd string offensive lines) were not overly harried. Neither Longshore or Riley played particularly well as both spent time with the 1st and 2nd teams. Longshore had good command of the huddle, stepped up nicely against the rush and checked off well on blitzes. However, he missed several wide open receivers with high throws. Riley wasn't as consistent with his ball as a few fluttered on him. He did thread the needle on several throws but he struggled to put together back to back positive plays. There were few big plays with the best being Brock Mansion's deep sideline throw to Marvin Jones. The receivers had a positive day in so far as I can't remember one ball being dropped in the scrimmage that wasn't forced out by a defender's hit. Against man coverage, there wasn't a lot of separation although Sean Young proved he understands how to find the soft spots against the zone repeatedly. The TEs had a nice day with Morrah, Smith and Anthony Miller all making nice catches on seam routes. All in all, I suspect this part of Cal's offense to take some time to come together. Getting Mike Tepper back on the offensive line will help with protection as will more time for guys like Schwartz and Guarnero to gel with their linemates.

Placekicking: This could continue to be a big weakness this year. Freshman David Seawright was more impressive on field goal tries than Jordan Kay but neither were stellar. Kay gets the ball deeper on kickoffs but to my eye Seawright has the bigger leg. David needs to hit the ball more consistently to get his kickoffs both high and deep.

Run Defense: This was not a good day for the Bears front seven against the run. As mentioned above, the offensive line consistently got good push on the defense and caught the outside linebackers blitzing on several plays to spring runs to the outside. Eddie Young had a rough day to my eye as did whomever the Bears had at NT. Derrick Hill eventually limped off the field and Kendrick Payne was very slow to get up after several plays late in the scrimmage. Worrell Williams missed the scrimmage. After Alex Mack was asked to take off the rest of the day, the run defense did get better but only slightly as the offensive line was still getting good push.

Pass Defense: This was a bright spot for Cal. Darian Hagen started opposite Syd Quan Thompson (who left the scrimmage early but I did not see if it was injury related) and played well. Bernard Hicks had a good day playing the ball in the air and in general coverage was tight. The defense struggled a bit with underneath passes in the two deep zone and they were aided by some missed throws from the QBs. The pass rush was solid with good push being brought by Owusu, Davis and Jordan as well as blitzing linebackers.

Punting: Bryan Anger is a rain maker. The guy absolutely kills the football. You needed a sun dial to time his hang time. Anger needs work in getting the ball off quicker and he wasn't super consistent with his ball striking but this guy is special.

Coverage teams: For the most part, kickoff coverage was very solid. Punt coverage less so.

Observations: I saw a lot of younger players who were quite impressive on both sides of the ball. Mychal Kendricks is very quick and aggressive and athletically jumps out at you. DJ Holt is HUGE and he is not afraid of contact. Both of these young players should be future stars at LB. Robert Mullins is an undersized linebacker but he has a nose for the ball. Ernest Owusu was very effective rushing the passer and was not easily pushed around on running plays. Marvin Jones has great size and fabulous hands. He's not as explosive as Boateng coming in and out of cuts, but he has a knack for getting open. Brock Mansion looked good and made some nice throws and several other players stood out for me including Justin Cheadle (powerful run blocker), Charles Satchell (very smooth and explosive), DJ Campbell, Dominic Galas, Cameron Jordan (He's HUGE), LaReylle Cunningham (He and Young were the most effective WRs) and Anthony Miller (blocking and catching the ball). I wanted to see who the obvious playmakers and leaders were on the field. Watching how they approached drills, the way they communicated with teammates, their play in the scrimmage, etc. Rulon Davis and Bernard Hicks stood out to me on defense and Alex Mack and Nate Longshore on offense.

Overall impressions: This wasn't the most intense scrimmage that I've seen and lacked some of the big plays and hard hitting of scrimmages in past year. The injury list was long and that certainly contributed but the challenges with the run defense and our passing offense will leave Tedford and his staff with plenty of work to do with the remaining time in camp.

2008 Cal Football Preview - The Offense

2008-08-13T21:18:00.001-07:00

System:

It remains to be seen how noticeable the difference will be between Frank Cignetti’s offensive system and play calling style and what Jeff Tedford has traditionally done. It’s clear that for the first time during his tenure at Cal that Tedford will truly delegate responsibility for the offense to someone else. All signs point to the differences between the two being minimal. Terminology will remain much the same and both Cignetti and Tedford have gone on record saying their philosophical approaches are nearly identical. Assuming that is the case, this is an offense that will start and end with the run. Cal wants to establish the run early, trigger their pass offense once the defense is thinking run and then when the Bears have a lead go back to the run to control the clock and keep the defense fresh. Word is that Cignetti has some preference to throw the ball more the TE and the backs than what we’ve seen Cal do the past couple of seasons.

Quarterbacks:

The simplest way to describe the Cal quarterback situation is simply that this is a position of depth and strength. I don’t believe Jeff Tedford would trade his top three quarterbacks for any other group in the conference. Cal has two quarterbacks who have proven they can win big games and they have a RS freshman who has been very impressive thus far in his career in Berkeley. Unlike last year, where the Cal staff felt they had a clear cut starter and then a drop off to a talented but very green backup, this season the coaches will know that they have two options either of which they will be comfortable starting. Nate Longshore has been much maligned after his less than stellar play last season after suffering a nagging high ankle injury. Despite solid pass protection and a trio of talented receivers, Longshore struggled at times after his injury, most noticeably in providing an offense heading south with the leadership it so desperately needed. Longshore can clearly play at a high level. He’s won big games at home (Oregon and UCLA at home in 2006 and Tennessee in 2007) as well as on the road (Oregon in 2007 and Texas A&M in the Holiday Bowl). Longshore has great size, a quick release and has complete mastery over the Cal offense and at times has shown off a tremendous touch, especially on the deep ball. He’s also shown himself to be an accurate passer and until last year’s injury, made few bad mistakes. His lack of mobility has resulted in fewer plays being made when his protection broke down or his receivers failed to get open and while he has a good arm, it’s not a cannon. Starting senior quarterbacks have been shown to have a high correlation to winning college football games and Longshore has tried to underline that thought by playing very well in the Spring and thus far in Summer camp. Kevin Riley enters his third year at Cal with all kinds of talent. Blessed with quick feet and a rocket arm, Riley plays the game with a swagger and has obvious command of the huddle. He has shown himself to thrive under adversity, leading an ill fated comeback against Oregon State in his first start and then a wonderful come from behind vistory against Air Force. Riley’s not been as consistent as Longshore as a practice player dating back to last season through the Spring and thus far into the Summer. However, the two times he’s had a chance to play when live bullets are flying, he has acquitted himself quite well. Brock Mansion will be the third quarterback regardless of the outcome of the competition. The future looks bright for Mansion who has similar size to Longshore yet much better mobility. He has picked up the Bears system quickly and with another year under his belt will cross the chasm to where the Cal coaches will be very comfortable that he can win games for this team. While the depth is a big bonus, it’s critical that one quarterback establish himself early in the season. I’d like to see leadership be overweighted by Tedford and Cignetti as they decide who will lead the offense. Longshore, despite his strong track record in 2006 and early 2007, has not shown himself to be a strong leader in clutch situations. His record when under adversity is far from ideal and he does not carry himself with the focus or self assuredness you want in your quarterback. That doesn’t mean Riley should get the nod. If Longshore continues to show more consistency through camp, he should start the game against MSU. If he falters, Riley will be more than ready to step in and take over. Regardless, both will almost certainly play against MSU which will do more to tell us who will best guide the offense in 2008.

Running Back:

Under Tedford, this has been a position loaded with talent and one that has not disappointed in performance. There is no reason to expect that to change this season. Cal has four talented tailbacks, three of whom will likely share the carries this year. Jahvid Best will be the starter and he replaces Desean Jackson as the Bears most dynamic playmaker. Blessed with tremendous speed and surprising toughness, Best should be an ESPN highlight staple by week four of the season. Best runs more physically than his 195lb frame would suggest and he showed last year that he is fearless (All Pac 10 special team gunner) and tough (breaking tackles on numerous occasions. Jahvid needs to become a more instinctual runner who understands how to set up his blockers and improve his vision and patience when running up the middle. His ability to catch the ball is a bonus and don’t be surprised to see Best line up on occasion as a slot receiver. Tracy Slocum will likely be Best’s primary backup. Slocum is 205+ lbs and built low to ground. He runs with his pads low and has good feet, allowing him to find or create creases where none are apparent. While he’s not explosively fast, Slocum has good quickness and gets to full speed in just a few steps. Slocum likes to run between the tackles and will likely see his fair share of short yardage opportunities. Shane Vereen will also help carry the load and he possesses many of the same skills that Best brings to the table. Vereen is even quicker in terms of his first step than Best and while he lacks Jahvid’s world class top end speed, Vereen is as fast a running back as the Bears have seen since Tarik Smith matriculated in Berkeley. Vereen is highly elusive with great hips and like Best possesses great hands. Shane needs to prove he can run physically and finish runs off but he will give Cal another big play offensive player. Covaughn Deboskie will likely redshirt. He has good size and great speed with similar receiving skills to Best and Vereen. A year to work on his body and to learn to run with a lower pad level will help him in the years to come.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends:

At wide out, the Bears are going to be focused on talent over experience as the latter is in short order with this group combining to have thirteen career catches total. It’s tough to know how the two deeps will play out, but depth will not be a problem nor is size as the Bears have a group of receivers whose average is size is well over 6’ and 200lbs. Mike Calvin has emerged as the teams likely number one pass catcher. The redshirt freshman dominated as a scout player last year and is a smooth route runner with consistent hands and the ability to use his body and leaping ability to go up and get balls. Sophomore Jeremy Ross is a physically strong receiver with good speed and a reputation as a run after catch threat. Last year, he failed to crack the rotation and is working to improve his consistency in running routes and catching the ball. Nyan Boateng, the junior transfer from Florida has some playing experience from his true freshman year in Gainesville where he played in five games and caught four balls. Boateng starred as a basketball player in New York City alongside current NBA player Sebastian Telfair and brings the receiving corps superb quickness and body control to go along with a tremendous physical build. Boateng’s hands have been inconsistent since arriving in Berkeley and he will need to improve his mental approach if he plans to star in the Pac 10. Sean Young enters his fifth year at Cal, having never cracked the rotation but he has arguably been the Bears best receiver thus fall in Camp. Young runs excellent route, has good hands and surprising athleticism. True freshman Marvin Jones is taking the #1 jersey and while he is a dynamic talent in his own right, he brings very different things to the Bears than previous #1, DeSean Jackson. Jones is 6’2” tall and while thin, is surprisingly strong. Not a speed burner, Jones still has the ability to stretch the field. Jones is very polished for a freshman and may crack the top four in the receiver rotation. JC transfer Verran Tucker came to camp a week late and is still playing catch up in terms of learning the offense. With a reputation as a speed burner, Tucker may represent the Bears best deep threat. Finally, LaReylle Cunningham is Cal’s leading returning receiver with all of ten career catches. Cunningham is lanky and dependable but is at an athletic deficiency relative to his position mates. Cameron Morrah will inherit the starting TE positions and gives the Bears a true receiving threat who can stretch the field with his speed. The only question is his ability to block but he is improving that aspect of his game at a rapid pace. Converted DE, Tad Smith will back him up. Smith is a physical player who should make the transition easily as he was a star TE in high school. Tad wowed folks with an outstanding Spring catching the ball but look for him to work more on running plays with Morrah being the receiving threat.

Offensive Line:

This could be Cal’s strongest position group on either offense or defense. With four players returning with starting experience and a very talented group of youngsters as backups, the Bears easily go 9 deep with players OL coach Jim Michalzik will feel comfortable seeing the field. Alex Mack is the leader of this group and the preseason All American and former high school wrestling champion is freakishly flexible and moves as well as any OL in the country. Named the Pac 10’s outstanding offensive lineman a season ago by the conference’s defensive lineman, Mack is a one man wrecking crew. Multiple times last year, Mack would beat his man only to then go down field and take out at least one and many times two more defenders. The tackle position has three outstanding options. Returning RT, Mike Tepper is slated to move to the left side. Tepper proved himself to be an excellent pass blocker after a bit of a rough start last year but is still improving in the run game. He injured his chest muscle earlier this Summer and will likely miss all of camp but should be back in time to see service against Michigan State in the opener. Flanking him is junior Chet Teofilo. Teofilo was primarily a backup last year before earning the start against Air Force in the Armed Services Bowl. Teofilo played extremely well in the bowl game and showed off quick feet to go along with a natural ability to push around his man in the run game. Mitchell Schwartz, the RS freshman, has been at least up to this point, the most impressive of Cal’s stellar 2007 offensive line recruiting haul. An absolutely huge man at 6’7” and 330 lbs, Schwartz gets the kind of leverage in run blocking that reminds some of current New England Patriot starting tackle and former Bear standout, Ryan O’Callaghan. Schwartz has all kinds of natural ability but he needs to work on his pass protection technique. At guard, Noris Malele has one spot locked down after starting all of last year and most of the 2006 season. Malele is unlikely to compete for all conference honors but is solid and reliable in both pass and run blocking. The spot opposite Malele is still wide open. Two former walk-ons, Mark Boskovich and Richard Fisher impressed in the Spring and entered camp as the likely starters. Boskovich is an excellent student who possesses great size. Fisher is undersized but has superior technique and has improve his play at a rapid pace. A wild card in the competition is Chris Guarnero, the backup to Alex Mack last year after earning the Scout team award in 2006 as the co-outstanding offensive player. Guarnero could start at center for many teams but barring an injury, he isn’t going to see the field at that position until Mack graduates. While Guarnero may be undersized as a guard at 280lbs, he has superb quickness and technique.

Overall:

This is a far better unit than most pundits realize. An experienced and deep offensive line is the key. Having two quarterbacks worthy of starting adds security especially with so many new faces at RB and WR. I suspect Cal will make more than its share of mental mistakes on offense with missed blitz pickups and dropped balls but those will diminish as the season progresses and will be overshadowed by the plethora of playmakers. Leadership is the big question. Can Longshore become the leader the team needs when trailing late in games? If not, will Riley step up his practice performance in order to earn his teammates and coaches respect? Beyond the QB, Jahvid Best and at least one of the receivers will need to establish themselves as go to guys. Don’t be surprised if Cameron Morrah becomes the team’s best third down and red zone option. Jeff Tedford has said he wants to play more players this year and this offensive squad has depth and talent across the board. The second team offense is arguably more talented than the starting team Tedford inherited when he first came to Berkeley.

2008 Cal Football Preview - The Defense

2008-08-07T15:33:00.000-07:00

THE SYSTEM -

Bob Gregory's defenses play a style that in many ways mirrors the offensive system Jeff Tedford has in place. As on offense, it starts with the running game. Gregory wants to take away the opponent's ability to run the ball and to do so is willing to put eight men in a box and leave his cornerbacks on an island. In obvious passing situations, Gregory prefers not to blitz and minimize big plays with a cover 2 zone. The idea is to give up yards but not points. Where the Cal defense will take chances is in forcing turnovers and when the opponent is in the red zone, which is where you will see the Bears blitz more often than any other time.

Coming off a year when running on the Bears was easier than scoring with Lindsay Lohan, Cal is moving to a 3-4 alignment designed first and foremost to shore up the porous run defense. It also allows Cal to leverage its experience and depth at the linebacker position while masking a potential weakness on the defensive line. While this switch is happening, don't be surprised to see the Bears play with a 4 man line on 20%+ of their defensive snaps.

The overall talent level of Cal's defense under Jeff Tedford has never been as high as it has been on the offensive side of the ball. That said, this years defense has the highest level of athleticism and more specifically speed than any other in Tedford's tenure. With the Bears returning nine players who started last year, there is enough experience here to raise expectations considerably. While there's plenty of reasons for optimism, until Cal can find a reliable nose tackle and some semblance of a pass rush, all bets are off. Despite the returning experience, the bulk of depth is young and as a result, I expect this years defense to be far better at the end of the year than it is in the beginning.

Position Breakdown:

DEFENSIVE LINE -

The single most important player on the team, offense or defense this season may be Rulon Davis. Davis is the most talented defensive player on the team, period. He is a defensive end in the mold of Reggie White or Bruce Smith. He’s large at 6'5" and 280lbs and is very quick and explosive. He played well when healthy last season and was nigh unstoppable this spring. He’s big enough to anchor the corner and play the run while also being Cal’s best pass rushing lineman.

Tyson Alualu enters his junior year as a player with all the talent in the world but who has yet to put it all together. He plays with great leverage, is hard to move around and has a good first step. He’s also 295 pounds. Up until now, he hasn’t proven himself as a pass rusher and although he’s big and strong, his technique has been shaky. Look for Tyson to start opposite Davis at the other DE spot. Cameron Jordan was a big surprise last year. He played both at DE and DT but in the 3-4 will definitely play at end. If his technique can catch up to his ability, he should take a big step forward backing up Davis. Ernest Owusu is a RS Frosh with a body by Adonis and a lighting quick first step. He played very well in the Spring and should be a future pass rushing star. Look for him to get spot duty as a pass rusher especially when the Bears go to a 4 man line.

The challenge is in the middle. The Bears don’t have a returning player whose a pure NT. Mika Kane appeared to be the team’s second most effective DL behind Malele last year but given the dismal performance of this position group, that is faint praise. Kane has a lot of talent but has not played consistently hard. As a senior, the team will look to his leadership. Derrick Hill has very quick feet and hands and has a naturally low center of gravity. He improved markedly last season, playing very effectively as the NT in the 3-4 against Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl. He doesn’t have NT size or strength and prefers to get off blocks rather than occupy opposing lineman which is the job of a NT in a 3-4.

Mike Costanzo, to my eye, was the Bears quickest and most aggressive DL in Fall Camp back in 2006. After sitting out a year with an injury, he played sparingly last season and still doesn’t seem fully recovered from his knee injury. While he will factor in the rotation at NT given depth issues, it's unclear whether his knee will allow him to fulfill his promise out of high school. In fact, the third NT on the depth chart by the end of the season may well be true freshman Kendrick Payne. Payne is built like a NT with a lower body reminiscent of former Bear great, Brandon Mebane. Payne enrolled early and surprised people with his play in the Spring. He needs to add 10-15 pounds and build on his natural strength. He’s the type of immovable object that can force offenses to double team him allowing Cal’s LB crew to clean up. For all the problems Cal had on the line last year, if this group can stay healthy, the team should be able to rotate 8 very talented players, keeping everyone fresh. With only two seniors in the group, this is an area that will continue to get stronger as the group gains experience.

LINEBACKER -

Linebackers are perceived by many to be an area of strength. While the Bears return three players who have played a lot of football in their careers, none of them have become consistently dominant performers. The hope is that in their senior years, the game slows down for them and their instincts get honed to the point that they can play quickly without having to think too much. Zach Follet is a very quick if undersized WLB whose very effective rushing the passer. He has the speed to stop RBs from turning the corner as well. Follett is the one proven big play defender on the team but he will need to improve his tackling and coverage skills if he wants to become an All P10 performer.

Worrell Williams, although he plays inside and weighs 250+ may be the teams fastest linebacker. He uses that speed effectively when dropping into pass coverage and chasing down plays sideline to sideline. Williams is not the most instinctual player and he has to get quicker at reading plays to maximize his talent. Despite his size, he’s also needs to get better getting off blockers which will become more of a challenge for him in the Bears new 3-4 scheme.

Anthony Felder, in my opinion, was our most consistent linebacker last season and is the teams best open field tackler. Lanky with good but not great quickness, Felder plays well in space and does a good job using his hands to get off blockers. He hasn’t shown an ability to attack up field and he will need to get more aggressive this season playing in the middle of the 3-4 alongside Williams. The battle at the other outside linebacker is between Eddie Young and Devon Bishop. Young is quick but has yet to prove he can be an every down linebacker. Bishop may be the least athletic of the group but he is heady and plays with good technique. Mike Mohammed played a lot last year, moves well and is a good tackler, in many ways reminiscent of Anthony Felder. He will back up Felder and Williams inside as well as Bishop/Young on the outside.

DJ Holt is a redshirt freshman who was the MVP of the scout team defense last year. At 255 pounds, he will back up both Williams and Felder and should get considerable playing time. Mychal Kendricks is a true freshman with All American type athleticism. Look for he and Holt to be special teams stars this year.

DEFENSIVE BACKS -

In the secondary, it all starts with Syd Quan Thompson. SQT had high expectations going into last season and although he didn’t come up with many interceptions, he was clearly the Bears best cover man and to my eye, one of the best cover men in the P10. Blessed with great quickness and very fluid hips, SQT is also a sure tackler who loves to come up and play the run. A future NFL player, if the Bears can muster a decent pass rush, SQT should vie for All Pac 10 honors this season.

Opposite SQT at CB is Chris Conte. At 6’3” tall and with very good hips, Conte can match up well with the P10s taller receivers. He is a good tackler and plays with solid technique but was often burned by quicker receivers using double moves. It’s not clear that Conte is a better CB than safety but his versatility makes him a valuable player. Darian Hagen will give Conte a good run for his starting CB position and should end up no worse than the nickel back. Hagan has similar athletic ability to SQT but has struggled with his confidence and consistency. Charles Amadi is also in the mix at corner.

Bernard Hicks will move to the FS position and I believe this is a great move. Hicks played well as a FS his sophomore season showing off very good ball skills when passes are in the air. Hicks is not a great cover safety and needs to improve his tackling skills but playing centerfield suits him. Brett Johnson will be his back up.

At the rover position, Marcus Ezeff comes back after a superb sophomore year. Ezeff has a nose for the ball and is a sure tackler. A guy who plays the game at full speed all the time and isn’t afraid to attack up the field, Ezeff has AP10 potential. The key is for Marcus to stay healthy as the backups at this position are young and unproven.

OVERALL -

On paper, this defense should be good and the move to a 3-4 seemingly will mitigate the risks around our run defense and allow Cal to leverage its depth and experience. I see the key being leadership. Rulon Davis and SQT are the obvious candidates as both are superb players who go all out in practice and back down from no one on the field. Despite those two, the psyche of the rest of this group is very much in question after last years dismal performance. It would seem obvious that one or more of the senior linebackers would step up and build the groups confidence and trust and certainly Williams and Follett are on record as saying they will do just that. While I hope that is the case, neither has been natural leaders their first three years and while the light bulb can go off at any time, until we see it on the field under adversity, I'll remain a skeptic.

A definitive interview with Tedford

2008-08-07T07:08:00.000-07:00

On what went wrong last season and what's going to change. I apologize if you cannot read this without a premium Scout or ESPN Insider subscription but it's too good of an article not to share. Kudos to Jim McGill who got Jeff Tedford to open up more than he has with any of the other beat writers.

http://www.bearinsider.com/news/story.php?article=36

Football is in the air

2008-08-03T17:42:00.001-07:00

As I write this, the 2008 Cal football team is checking into camp and will kick off practice tomorrow evening. Exciting times for Bear fans as hope springs eternal. But before we turn our thoughts to what this Fall will bring, it's worth taking one last look back at the debacle that was last season's football meltdown.

Much has been written about the team’s lack of leadership, the quarterback controversy and even Jeff Tedford's epiphany about giving up play calling duties. It's impossible to know exactly what happened, but based on some insights gleaned from folks who should know, a few things feel obvious:

1.) For whatever reason, the teams psyche was very brittle. Once the Bears lost to Oregon State, the team went from believing it was bullet proof to wondering if it was good at all. Moreover, the team had some sort of perfectionist death wish. The one loss was interpreted as the end of the world by the players as opposed to a speed bump. If you go back and watch the UCLA and ASU games again, you see a team pressing, one in which players weren't trusting one another (as evidenced by guys freelancing) both of which led to a host of mental mistakes. It was as if the team was defined more by arrogance than confidence. Confidence welcomes adversity and arrogance pretends it doesn't exist

2.) The leadership issue has been beaten into the ground but almost all of the discussion seems to leave out the specifics. The truth is that leaders are the best players on the team, the guys whom everyone else looks to when times get tough. For Cal last year, the clear best player was DeSean Jackson, who personified arrogance. Not only could the team not rely on him to step up when times were tough (save for his wonderful performance in Eugene), he was a catalyst to exacerbating problems by criticizing teammates without cause and furthering the quarterback controversy to the point where it divided the team. The most important player on defense last year was a guy who could not stay on the field, Matt Malele. When Malele was healthy enough to play, Cal stopped the run, when he was on the side line, teams ran against us at will. It wasn't just the talent disparity between himself and other DTs on the team (the gap was wide) but the lack of confidence the team had in any one else playing the position.

3.) A football team is defined not by its best player but its worst. A weak link in football gets exposed more often than Lindsay Lohan. Cal had two glaring weaknesses, at DT when Malele was not in the game and at place kicker. Our inability to stop the run was embarrassing as was Jordan Kay's propensity to hook half his kicks. If Malele plays healthy for the season and Kay hits 75% of his kicks instead of 50%, this team finishes with 9 or 10 wins. It really is that simple.

4.) What about the QB controversy? Longshore had a very good sophomore season and was playing well (albeit not as well as the season prior) in leading Cal to an undefeated start last year. When he got hurt, the Bears were in a tough spot. Riley had beaten out the more experienced backup Kyle Reed, who subsequently transferred, but beating out Reed does not equate to earning his head coaches full confidence. Riley is clearly a mega talent, greet feet, quick release, strong arm, all kinds of intangibles. But last October, he was a young man who the coaches perceived as cocky and unprepared. Riley was not a film fanatic nor was he the first to arrive or the last to leave for QB meetings. His grasp of the offense was more limited than fans understand. Despite that, he played well against Oregon State, including the spirited 4th quarter comeback. At least, that's how it looked to fans. The coaches had a different view. Riley did not do a good job with his progressions and reads. He flat out called the wrong play on several occasions and further cemented the coaches perception that he was talented but not well prepared. The choice was now a hobbled QB who knew the system cold and was a proven winner vs. a very talented and healthy young QB who had yet to show the maturity or the grasp of the system that is often so essential in college football. Tedford chose the former and thus we were all treated to Nate playing poorly and the team’s wide receivers going into open revolt over Riley not being on the field. Might the team have performed better if Riley had played all the games after Oregon State? Who knows? regardless, it wasn't nearly as easy a decision as fans wanted it to be. To Riley's credit, the light went on for him after the Stanford loss and he responded by buckling down and acting like a starting QB prior to the AF game.

I find ALL of the above very disturbing about what it says about our program. Let me preface this by saying that Jeff Tedford has to be recognized as a saviour to the football program and while he's not above criticism, it needs to be done with the relative understanding that we wouldn't even have the high class problem of watching a #2 ranked team melt down without him. If he were to leave this program, Cal would go so fast in reverse you wouldn't have time to say "tomholmoekeithgilbertson" before we were looking at 5 win seasons as a huge success.

With that out of the way, there are reasons to be worried. I'm concerned that a team as talented and experienced as last years team with a coach as accomplished as Tedford could literally give up against UW on its way to six losses in seven games. I'm concerned about the apparent lack of awareness of the leadership problem before the season began and moreover, the inability to address it when it made itself so abundantly clear during the season. Is the staff so stubborn and/or so wedded to a system of teaching and managing these kids that it cannot react whatsoever when the unexpected occurs? When you have wonderful talents with huge attitudes like DeSean or a complete lack of depth at a critical position (as we did at DL), can we see these proactively and manage them in a way that may not get us a perfect season but avoids the team playing WELL below its potential? I don't know if any of these issues are endemic to the program. I choose to believe they are not. Tedford's decision to give up his play calling duties speaks to a leader who understands he's too far into the details and not minding the pulse of his team. The right players this year are speaking about leadership - Follett, Davis and Mack are clearly three of the cornerstones fo the team as the best and most important players on the field and they are on record that they want to be looked at when things go awry. Tedford's off season reading included books on finding criteria more important than pure talent to judge players which may be a reaction to his mismanagement of DeSean. Tedford is a high integrity figure who knows how to teach football players to excel, who has recruited tremendous talent despite our woeful facilities and whose players graduate. He is hyper focused on succeeding and I believe will do whatever is necessary to overcome his own shortcomings. I hope last year stays with JT and his staff for the rest of their lives. Mistakes are always more instructive than success and the learning opportunity last seasons disappointment presents is huge.

Go Bears!

Trent Johnson to LSU?

2008-04-09T09:49:00.001-07:00

LSU BASKETBALL SET TO HIRE TRENT JOHNSON
By Ken Trahan
Wednesday, April 09 2008
WGSO has learned that LSU is set to hire Stanford’s Trent Johnson as its new head basketball coach. Johnson, a graduate of Boise State, spent the last four seasons at Stanford compiling an overall record of 81-48 with three NCAA tournament appearances and one NIT appearance. This past season, Johnson guided the Cardinal to the Sweet 16, beating Cornell and Marquette in the NCAA tournament before being eliminated by Texas. Prior to his stint at Stanford, Johnson served as the head coach at Nevada from 1999-2004, leading them to the Sweet 16 in 2004. Johnson will become the first ever African-American head coach in LSU men’s basketball history.

If true, this is big news. You have to believe Montgomery knew about this before committing to Cal given he was employed by the university as well as his close relationship to Trent. Moreover, it's hard to imagine that Bowlsby (Stanford's AD)didn't offer Montgomery the job. Ipso facto, Monty turned down the Cardinal for Cal. I'm liking him more already!

Trent departing isn't in and of itself suprising. He and Bowlsby did not get along, Johnson was not popular with his players and he had little coming back after Los Lopez announced they were leaving. Bowlsby had delayed signing Trent to a contract extension and Trent clearly decided he would be more wanted elsewhere.

Don't be surprised to see Mark Fox or Tony Bennett introduced as Stanford's new head basketball coach.

Moving Forward

2008-04-06T12:44:00.000-07:00

The die is cast, the decision is made and Mike Montgomery, for better or worse, is our head coach. From this point on, it's a lot more constructive to focus on the positives.

Montgomery has already done a great job recruiting the current roster. I doubt you'll see a single player transfer as a result of Montgomery's reputation for winning. The players can already imagine a full and boisterous Haas Pavilion as Montgomery mania sweeps the Bay Area.

Despite the choice of Montgomery, Ryan Anderson is headed to the NBA if he can be assured of being a first round choice. Montgomery's comments about wanting Ryan to move in with he and his wife were surely flattering to Ryan, but the Andersons are well aware of Montgomery's bias towards players staying all four years (He did not support Childress or Jacobsen's early departures) and are simply focused on understanding where Ryan will likely fall in the draft.

I think we're going to get an immediate upswing in recruiting. I feel confident that both DJ Seeley (a top 50 national prospect) and Garrett Sim (likely the Oregon State Player of the Year) will honor their commitments to Cal. Top 2009 targets include Branden Lane, a sweet shooting 6'9" prospect our of Sacramento, who likely will be thrilled with Montgomery given Mike's track record with big men and sweet shooting perimieter players.

The big questions at this point:

- What type of assistants in addition to his son will he hire? Will that group include an "ace" recruiter?
- Will Cal run a similar system to the one Stanford ran or have Mike's theories evolved since his stint in the NBA? If Montgomery really wants to leverage the recruiting flexibility of Cal, will he go more uptempo and run the more popular varieties of a motion offense rather than the very disciplined set of fixed plays he used at Stanford?

The Dark Side

2008-04-04T09:45:00.000-07:00

If the rumors prove to be true and Mike Montgomery is indeed the next head coach at Cal, I will experience a profound sense of both relief and disquiet. Relief that the Bears are bringing on a winner, a man who will go from the role of arch enemy to potential saviour. It's not too different from the feeling you had watching Darth Vader pick up the Emperor and throw him to his death in Return of the Jedi. It's not like you ever liked the disfigured, heavy breathing menace in black nor could you have imagined him yucking it up with Han and Chewy, but you still cheered because dammit Vader was nasty tough and now he was working for the light side. Relief because with Monty stalking the sidelines at Haas, we will all sleep better knowing the days of the consistently inconsistent Ben Braun are forever behind us.

The trouble is that this hire was too safe, too damn easy and like most decisions that are made for comfort and instant applause, it will eventually be regretted. Mike Montgomery is already a Hall of Fame coach. If he works twenty hours a week and mails it in from here on out, no one will ever disparage him. The burning ambition that drives college head coaches to deprive themselves of sleep and to text message 17 year olds 100 times a night has been replaced in Montgomery by a beautiful house in Menlo Park, $150 haircuts at Di Pietro Todd and long meals with his wife Sarah at the Village Pub. He's already rich, he's already famous and his legacy is written.

It's not that he can't still coach, just listening to Montgomery call Pac 10 games on television and you realize this guy isn't just smart, he's a frigging genius when it comes to basketball. I can't imagine Long Beach State ever produced a more cerebral graduate. He's tough as nails and reeks of confidence. But Cal is his graceful exit not his big bang. Montgomery has been up front that his goal is to coach somewhere where his son could follow him. I have zero doubt that John Montgomery, a very capable and charismatic young coach, will be the first addition to the staff. This will be the fourth time in recent years where a hall of fame coach has cut a deal to bequeath his son his job. Let's review how the others turned out in a vain attempt to predict the future.

Bobby Knight leaves Indiana for Texas Tech. The Red Raider Faithful rejoice as they believe they are actually going to matter now in basketball. And in fact, they do matter MORE than they did before, finishing in the top 3-4 of the B12 consistently for the first time, winning 60% of their games and consistently seeing their coach on ESPN for his latest grocery store or hunting gaffe. But did Texas Tech become a power? Not in the least. The last three years have been a free fall to utter mediocrity and there is no conference championship or sweet sixteen run to sustain people in Lubbock now that they have Pat Knight as their coach. Eddie Sutton did wonders at Oklahoma State, but the day he announced his son Sean would be taking over for him, the program went sideways and now the Sutton era in Stillwater is over as Sean has been let go after two forgettable years. Dick Bennett, after toiling in relative obscurity at Wisconsin Green Bay (where his highlight was beating Todd Bozeman's NBA all star team cum Cal Bears in the NCAA first round) got a chance to become a hall of famer at Wisconsin and he delivered. He made Badger basketball big time, including a final four run. For his swan song, he took the job at WSU with the agreement that his son would take over for him. Dick then preceded to make the Cougars only slightly less mediocre than they were before his arrival before. To the incredible good fortune of Washington State, his son Tony proved to be a gem, a 1in a 100 type coaching talent. The punch line is that HOF coaches in the eighth inning of their careers who are focused on their sons future job prospects don't build big time programs and unless John Montgomery proves to be a special talent, Cal took less of a step forward and more of a step sideways than anyone likely wants to recognize.

For those of you too lazy to read my post below outlining why Monty was not the right choice for the Bears, let me recap the three salient points. Montgomery does not like to recruit and I have no reason to believe that even if he did, he would be good at it. Stanford recruited for Montgomery and even then he failed to consistently land the type of top talent one would assume a program of that weight would attract even taking into account the academic requirements. The opportunity in Berkeley is 90% about recruiting. It's about keeping the best NorCal talent at home and out manuevering USC, UW, ASU and Oregon for the very good but not elite west coast talent that UCLA and Arizona don't want. Secondly, Stanford under Monty was a team that always peaked early. They did great in conference play but come tourney time, they woefully underperformed. It was in part the lack of talent that is to blame for this but it's also the rigid system Monty used which maximized the performance of players who had limited athletic ability but who were smart and would stick around for all four if not five years to master it. That is not the recipe that will produce success in Berkeley. Lastly, Montgomery's countenance and style were picture perfect for the country club that pretends to be a place of higher learning known as Leland Stanford Junior College (oops I meant University). His arrogance and aloof demeanor were right out of central casting. In Berkeley? This plays about as well as a Bill O'Reilly speech in Sproul Plaza.

This isn't a bad hire. It's miles better than risking the job on Randy Bennett or Mike Dunlap but it's way too safe and easy. Reaching financially to grab a Jamie Dixon or a Jay Wright may not have been possible but landing a young Mike Montgomery in the form of Mark Fox or Tony Bennett or Anthony Grant, all with some potential downside but more importantly unlimited upside. We want our own Luke Skywalker, someone who will be remembered for the memories he creates in Haas Pavilion while coaching guys in Blue and Gold not Cardinal and White.

The latest

2008-04-02T21:02:00.000-07:00

My sources are telling me that mark Fox is no longer a viable candidate. He recently told his McD's AA recruit at Nevada, Luke Babbitt, that he is not leaving and will be at Nevada next year. While this is far from definitive, it doesn't inspire confidence.

Jay Wright has a large buyout from Villanova which is not making it easy for Cal to close the deal. It's time for Cal alums to step up and land a coach who would instantly vault the Bears into the upper echelon of college programs. Wright's three sweet sixteen appearances, his three McD's AA recruits and mostly the fearless and back down from noone attitude that his teams play would be a perfect fit in Berkeley.

If Fox is indeed out of the mix and Cal alums cannot find the dough to land Wright, it may come down to Randy Bennett and Mike Dunlap. Both would be risks and neither is likely to establish the immediate credibility you want to energize potential recruits and bring fans back to Haas.

A few other schools fill their openings - Jay Wright?

2008-04-01T20:38:00.001-07:00

It's been a busy day in college basketball coaching circles and one that directly involved two of the candidates highlighted below as potential Cal head coaches. Tom Crean is the next coach at Indiana University and Bill Grier has left USD after only one season to take over at Oregon State. The openings created at Marquette and USD are not likely to negatively impact the Bear search but one new opening might. Oklahoma State parted ways with Sean Sutton after only two years. Lingering bitterness between Eddie Sutton and the AD and OSUs patron saint, T Boone Pickens, gave Sean very little rope and apparently missing the NCAAs this year used up what little he had. OSU is a big time college program. Fantastic facilities, a storied history and a rabid fan and alum base make this a very attractive opening. Cowboy fans are clamoring for former alum Bill Self to come back to Stillwater, but that seems like a long shot. As a result, guys like Jamie Dixon, Sean Miller and Jay Wright could be on their wish list.

Speaking of Jay Wright. His name has come up as a finalist for the Cal job. He would be a BIG time catch. As excited as I would be to see Mark Fox move down from Reno, Wright is in another league. He has taken Villanova from the abyss to a perennial top 20 program. While the Wildcats have a great basketball heritage, it is a tiny school with mediocre facilities and limited resources. Still, they are a regular to the NCAA tourney and three years ago went to the elite eight as a #1 seed. Wright has recruited exceptionally well and his teams play a tough minded brand of basketball that has been missed in Berkeley. The opening could be attractive to Wright because of Cal's size and natural recruiting advantages. Keep your fingers crossed.

Contra Costa Times on Coaching Search

2008-04-01T12:14:00.001-07:00

Clearly Sandy has been reading the blog. :)

Bennett and Monty not on the radar, Fox is very much in the forefront of the recruiting effort.

http://www.contracostatimes.com/cal/ci_8768220?nclick_check=1

The latest on the search - Mark Fox and Trent Johnson

2008-03-31T13:14:00.001-07:00

Not a lot to report other than scuttlebutt and rumors at the moment. In terms of making direct contact, as of last night based on what I've heard neither Mike Dunlap, Mark Fox, nor Randy Bennett have heard from Cal. That doesn't mean there aren't intermediaries having offline conversations but nothing has risen to the level of a formal conversation.

There may also be conversations happening with some of the long distance prospects like Tom Crean and potentially even Mike Brey, whom Sandy knows well.

My guess at this point is that Cal will land on Mark Fox as the choice to be the next head coach. Fox is young at 38 years old, he's had experience in the Pac 10 as an assistant, he was part of the rebuilding work at Nevada and has accelerated their progress since Trent Johnson left. As compared to Bennett, he is a proven recruiter who can land highly sought after preps and he has dominated his own conference over the past four years. Bennett should get credit for turning around a moribund St. Mary's program but that is far less relevant in my eyes as Cal is not that far down at the moment and the challenges are of a very different nature than what Bennett faced in Moraga. Fox is also a polished and charismatic personality who will play well with the press and alums.

The rumors around Mike Montgomery won't die. Many Old Blues who claim to be in the know believe there is an ongoing conversation happening between Monty and the Bears. The sticking points likely revolve around Monty's choice of assistants, most importantly his insistence that his son inherit the program when he retires and the size of his compensation package.

As I shared below, I don't see the fit with Montgomery and the Bears even without his demand to bequeath the program to his son. I hope this is just hopeful speculation on the part of some of the bigger donors and not substantive.

The one crazy rumor regarding Montgomery that won't go away is the one that involves Trent Johnson. Johnson has but one year left on his deal with Stanford and has been told he will be renewed but by all accounts, Stanford isn't in a huge hurry to get it done. The conspiracy theorists opine that Bowlsby (Stanford's AD) doesn't mesh well with Johnson and would prefer to have Monty come back rather than sign Johnson to a long term deal. Johnson, unlike Montgomery, has gone out of his way to praise Cal to folks off the record, citing the native recruiting advantages and the depth of talent currently on the Bears roster. Johnson feels like a better fit for Cal than for the Cardinal. All of this is a long shot but it could explain the lack of contact between Cal and other candidates and the rumors around Montgomery. It also gets credence from Barbour's recent quote that Cal would need to wait until certain prospects exited the tourney. She said this last week and speculation was that she was talking about Sean Miller (Xavier), but Johnson frankly makes more sense.

More rumors on the hire

2008-03-29T09:00:00.000-07:00

The Chronicle has some interesting thoughts:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/03/28/SP4TVSP0J.DTL

Let's discuss the two new names:

Tony Bennett (Washington State):
Pro: One of the first of the very popular trend of a father passing his coaching job to his son, Tony took over for his hall of fame father Dick and took WSU to heights it never imagined. While Dick laid the groundwork of rebuilding the Cougars, Tony was the recruiter who landed Derrick Low, Kyle Weaver, et al. Prior to WSU, Bennett was at Wisconsin, again under his father where he helped lead the Badgers to the final four and again was the recruiter responsible for Devin Harris and company. A defensive dynamo, WSU plays as tough a brand of half court defense as anyone. Young, high energy and respected for his ability to mentor and connect with players, Bennett has been equally successful in getting his kids to work hard in the classroom with several P10 All Academic team honors
Con: Only two years in the head chair, Bennett inherited a strong foundation from his father. His defensive approach has been flatteringly called ugly and may not impress fans or recruits. Will Bennett, who has played and coached in rural locations adapt to the Berkeley culture.
Bottom line: It's very rare to see a head coach make an inter conference job move but WSU has limited upside for Bennett both in salary and in what he can do with the basketball program. Bennett has shown so much in a short period of time, you can't help but be impressed. His recruiting acumen, his youth and his defensive smarts would all be welcomed at Cal. The challenge is the culture fit. Indiana may also be calling on Tony and that may end up being a better fit for his rural background and slow down system.

Mike Dunlap: (Denver Nuggets Assistant)
Pro: Known as one of the great teachers in the game, Dunlap has coached all over the world and at virtually ever level. He started his career as a head coach in the Australian professional league before getting assistant gigs at some big time D1 college programs including Iowa and USC. He then had a 12 year stint at two D2 programs as their head coach, nine at Denver's MetroState which he turned into a national powerhouse winning two national championships and losing one other in the finals. He spent the last year as an assistant for the Nuggets in the NBA.
Con: No D1 head coaching experience, his recruiting acumen has to be a major question mark. With his resume, you have to wonder why he hasn't been tapped as a mid major head coach to this point.
Bottom line: Perhaps Dunlap is a hidden gem, if he's interviewed and comes across as a dynamic personality, leader and recruiter, he could be worth the gamble. However, it feels high risk. He's not a spring chicken and is unknown as a recruiter. I think Sandy has better options.

Scratch Dixon from the list

2008-03-29T08:14:00.000-07:00

But at least we know Sandy has her aim set high.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=3318598

The Candidate List

2008-03-28T13:03:00.000-07:00

The cream of the crop:

Jamie Dixon (University of Pittsburgh):

Pro: Dixon’s first four years as a head coach have been incredibly successful. He picked up where Ben Howland left off and if anything Pitt has become an even stronger program. Having learned from Howland, arguably the top coach in the country at the moment, Dixon knows what it is to recruit and win in a BCS conference. Dixon has a system and recruits players to fit that system.
Con: Dixon’s Pitt teams are built around rough and tough defense and have never been described as having a fan or recruit friendly offense. Not known as a great recruiter, he finds kids who fit his system and rarely goes after elite national players
Bottom Line: Dixon is the most proven commodity who is likely to be interested in Cal. He should be right at if not at the very top of Sandy’s list

Anthony Grant (Virginia Commonwealth University)
Pro: – Has taken VCU from a middle of the road mid-major team to one of the most feared smaller schools in the country in two short years. His record is startlingly good: 52-15 overall and 31-5 in conference games. Was a longtime assistant to Billy Donovan at Florida and briefly was Florida’s head coach when Donovan announced he was headed to the NBA before quickly changing his mind. Known as a marvelous recruiter and a great offensive coach, his VCU teams play a very crowd and recruit pleasing fast paced style
Con: Limited experience as a head coach creates question marks as to how he will project as a head man at a BCS conference program. Will his up and down style work well in the defensive minded Pac 10 conference?
Bottom Line: He would be a great fit for Cal. His experience at Florida gives him the roadmap for success in Berkeley. He’s the type of pied piper recruiter who can pull the best talent from LA and Seattle while keeping NorCal’s finest at home. His style of play would put butts in the seats at Haas. Rumor has it that LSU wants him and he is asking for big money. A lifetime resident of the East Coast, it’s unclear how attractive Cal would be to him.

Jay Wright (Villanova University)
Pro: Proven winner as a head coach at both Hofstra and now Villanova. Has won 60% of his games at Villanova and 65% overall. His teams play a tough, gritty style of play that allows them to compete with anyone in the country. A proven recruiter who has landed three McD's All Americans.
Con: Wright struggled early to acclimate to a new level of talent as the program was hit by a phone card scandal and several players had to be dismissed. His style of play would fit well in the P10 alongside Herb Sendek, Tony Bennett and Ben Howland but his defense first approach is not likely to win over fans or recruits. A lifer on the East Coast, he may not be attracted to the Bay Area
Bottom Line: He’s a big time coach and Cal would win and win consistently with him. Unclear whether he could take the Bears to “elite” status given his recruiting deficiencies and the cultural fit with Berkeley may not be there

Tom Crean: (Marquette University)
Pro: One of the most respected X’s and O’s coaches in all college basketball. His in game decision making skills are as good as it gets. Has done a good job recruiting talent to a Marquette program that hasn’t historically attracted big time prep players. Has won 66% of his games over eight seasons including a Final Four run. A Tom Izzo protégé who was the top assistant at Michigan State during their heyday.
Con: Crean hasn’t been able to get Marquette from a good program to a great one. Some question whether he can recruit as well as his former mentor, Tom Izzo
Bottom Line: Marquette is not a AAA destination in college basketball and Cal offers Crean a more fertile recruiting base, a stronger academic profile and a more desirable place to live. Expect Sandy to inquire about his interest as he could be a great fit for the Bears.

Sean Miller – (Xavier University):
Pro: The son of a coach, Miller has made steady progress with Xavier during his first three years, including this years Elite Eight (and perhaps beyond) appearance. His Xavier teams have consistently exceeded expectations. A Thad Matta (perhaps the best lesser known coach in the country) protégé, Miller is known as a fiery competitor whose teams never back down or give up. Miller has served as an assistant at some of the better programs in the country including Wisconsin, NC State and Pitt.
Con: He inherited a healthy Xavier program and has yet to face the type of program building challenge he would have in Berkeley. His recruiting success to date has been modest. Limited experience as a head coach, especially since he has won with players inherited from Thad Matta.
Bottom Line: Miller is likely to benefit from the coaching carousel at bigger programs like Cal, LSU, Indiana, etc. If Dixon or Crean were to leave Pitt or Marquette, expect Miller to be those schools top choice. His age, background and competitive style would suit him well at Cal and I hope he gets a chance to meet with Sandy.

Mark Fox: (University of Nevada)
Pro: Took over for Trent Johnson when he left for Stanford as has continued the Wolfpack’s winning ways. He has won more than 75% of his games at Nevada including three NCAA appearances in four years. A stellar recruiter, Fox is finding hidden gems and landing the big fish including incoming McD’s AA Luke Babbitt.
Con: Nevada took a step back this year and even with the unexpected departure of PG Ramon Sessions, they underperformed relative to expectations. Fox took over a healthy Nevada program and it’s unclear how much of their recent success was built on the back of Trent Johnson
Bottom Line: Despite the obvious upgrade in jobs, Fox may be loathe to leave Nevada as he welcomes Babbitt and returns a wealth of talent next season. Fox is a year or two away from picking his job. He’s a perfect fit for Cal in terms of his youth, recruiting chops and knowledge of the west coast.

Mike Montgomery (See Previous Blog Post)

The second tier:

Mark Grier – (University of San Diego)
Pro: Spectacular first year success story with USD, giving them their most successful season ever. A long time Gonzaga assistant who has been inside a top flight program and a respected defensive specialist.
Con: Very limited experience as a head coach. Gonzaga was never known for their defense while Grier managed that side of things for the Zags. An unknown commodity as a recruiter of elite prep talent (although Gonzaga has of late recruited at that level)
Bottom Line: Timing doesn’t feel right. Grier is likely going to spend a few more years at USD honing his craft and waiting for Mark Few to move on to Oregon so that he can go back to Spokane and take over the Gonzaga program

Randy Bennett: (St. Mary’s University)
Pro: Took an awful St. Mary’s program (2-26 the year before he arrived) and built it into one of the better teams in the WCC. Has won over 55% of his WCC games and led the Gaels to two NCAA tournament appearances in his seven year tenure
Con: After getting back to respectability with the Gaels, Bennett has failed to establish a level of consistency on par with the elite mid major programs. A longtime assistant at other mid majors, Bennett has no experience recruiting or coaching at a BCS conference
Bottom Line: Bennett deserves an opportunity to coach at a P10 school, however, it’s Oregon State that should be excited to get him and not Cal.

Keno Davis (Drake University)
Pro; Son of legendary college coach Tom Davis, Keno has had a wonderful first year as the head man at Drake. He took over a 17-12 Drake team that lost four starters and led them to a 28-5 record.
Con: A very limited track record as a head coach with only one year. His career as an assistant was all at smaller schools. The biggest question would be his ability to recruit and motivate top prep talent
Bottom Line: A name to watch in the future but at this point in his career, he’s too much of a risk for Cal

Lon Kruger – (UNLV)
Pro; A proven winner who has done well at Florida, Illinois and now UNLV. Kruger has as impressive a resume as any mid major coach. The job he has done turning around UNLV has been just short of miraculous.
Con: Kruger is in the 8th inning of his career and despite his turnaround of UNLV, it’s doubtful he has the energy in doing it for the Bears. He never was able to make Florida or Illinois consistent winners so there are questions about his head room as well.
Bottom Line: Doesn’t feel like a good fit as the Bears need someone who wants to make their name at Cal and not make a final pit stop before heading off to retirement

Eric Musselman – (Former Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings head coach)
Pro: In his early twenties became one of the most successful head coaches in the NBAs minor leagues. He was exceptional at taking lesser known talents in the CBA and working with them to get to the NBA. Is known for his tremendous energy and enthusiasm
Con: Was not successful as an NBA head coach. Has no experience in the college game and has had a few off the court challenges (DUI)
Bottom Line: Musselman is actively campaigning for the Cal job. My guess is that his pro resume and relative youth and high energy level will translate into success as a recruiter in college. However, his lack of experience at this level and his off the court problems likely make him a second tier choice for the Bears.

Steve Lavin – (Former UCLA head coach)
Pro: Led UCLA to four sweet sixteen appearances in six years. Landed almost every top recruit in SoCal during his tenure with the Bruins. A very bright and charismatic person. Lavin is a Bay Area native with a deep knowledge of the Pac 10
Con: Pushed into the head coaching seat too early, Lavin was over his head at UCLA and his teams played inconsistently, underperforming relative to their talent level. A far better motivator than X’s and O’s coach, it’s difficult to know whether he has the chops as a teacher to succeed.
Bottom Line: Arguably the best college basketball television analyst around, Lavin’s future may be in front of cameras and not roaming the sidelines. If Lavin was willing to take an assistant job for a top flight college coach for a few years, he might be a good pick, but right now, he’s a high risk candidate.

There are likely to be more names that surface as the search continues so check back for updates on the list above

The Full Monty

2008-03-27T17:15:00.000-07:00

Clearly, taking our arch rivals most successful basketball coach is no longer considered blasphemy for the Cal faithful. As soon as the words dismissing Ben Braun were out of Sandy Barbour’s mouth, a hue and cry ensued demanding Mike Montgomery be his successor. It’s not hard to understand the appeal of seeing Mike Montgomery’s scowl on the sideline of Haas Pavilion. Montgomery took a clear cut bottom of the conference program at Stanford and made them a perennial P10 contender. He’s won over 70% of the games he’s coached at both Montana and Stanford, took the Cardinal to ten straight NCAA tournament appearances including one to the final four. He’s a future hall of fame coach who happens to live in the Bay Area and is currently unemployed. What’s not to like?

I’m glad you asked. Despite his incredibly impressive resume, Montgomery is in fact not a good fit for Cal. Montgomery has never been known as a great recruiter and he privately expressed his distaste for the process before leaving Palo Alto for the NBA. Stanford is unique in its ability to attract student athletes distinct from the health of its athletic programs or the recruiting acumen of its coaches. It has a nationwide brand based on stellar academics and its bucolic campus, not to mention the $125k+ in scholarship value they offer. As a result, Montgomery had good but not great talent at Stanford. In his 18 year tenure in Palo Alto, he attracted only two more McDs All Americans and fewer top 100 recruits than Braun did during his twelve year run in Berkeley. That’s shocking when you consider the disparity in the two programs on the court success and points up both Monty’s recruiting challenges as well as his ability to win with less talent than his opponents.

Montgomery won by having a system and finding kids who fit that system well. His teams were big, strong and rough down low and populated with great shooters who could come off screens and drain jumpers. His system was one that was as tightly scripted on offense and as complex on defense as any in college basketball and relied heavily on fourth and fifth seniors who had mastered the system for it work well. While I can imagine a similar approach working in Berkeley, it doesn’t strike me as one that leverages Cal’s inherent strengths and weaknesses as well as it did Stanford’s. Cal has a far more flexible admissions department when it comes to student athletes and the urban campus has always attracted some of the better basketball players on the West Coast. Recruiting those types of players requires a head coach who is a tireless and passionate recruiter. Even when he was forty, that wasn’t a favorite part of Montgomery’s job, at age 60, it’s very hard to imagine he is this type of a lead man. It’s doubtful that there won’t be more turnover in Berkeley than on the Farm as Stanford attracts players who are degree first and basketball second while Cal is almost certainly the opposite. This will lead to fewer senior dominated teams which were the hallmark of Monty’s Stanford program

It’s worth noting that the one arguable blight on Montgomery’s career is his lack of success in the post season. Outside of the one final four run, Montgomery was .500 in the NCAA tournament, not a terrible record until you realize that nearly 75% of his losses were when Stanford was a higher seed and a clear favorite. Stanford’s lack of athleticism, especially in the backcourt and Monty’s rigid offensive system were the culprits in Stanford’s post season stumbles. Trent Johnson may not be nearly as consistent as Montgomery in terms of the regular season, but it’s not hard to imagine he will have more post season success with his use of the motion offense and his approach to peaking his teams later in the year.

Finally, Mike Montgomery is sixty one years old and has already proven all he needs to in the college basketball coaching profession. He won’t come to Berkeley with the hunger or energy he had when he arrived in Palo Alto in the late 1980s. Cal needs that dynamism in its next head coach. It deserves someone who wants to define themselves by their tenure at Cal and not see it as a last stop before retiring. In short, Mike Montgomery is not the answer.

The Search Criteria

2008-03-27T08:50:00.001-07:00

Before we start to compile a list of potential candidates for the head coaching job, it would be good to review what we want in those candidates and why.

Unlike college football, where there are a limited number of Division 1 programs, finding a candidate with head coaching experience in basketball is much easier. Hiring a basketball head coach who has been a life long assistant is a high risk and is almost never done in the better BCS conference programs. When it has been done, the results have been less than ideal. In football, where you have upwards of 100 players, many of whom need to have specialized skills and none of whom play both ways, assistant coaches have tremendous autonomy. The offensive and defensive coordinators are often head coaches of their discipline which allows them to prove they have the requisite leadership skills. In college basketball, where staff size is generally three assistants or fewer, the head coach makes virtually every decision of import and is deeply involved in all aspects of the program. Projecting a top assistant as a head basketball coach thus becomes very difficult.

Cal will want a coach who has at least two to three years as a head coach at some high level of basketball. More than simply experience is a track record of success as a head coach. If the coach has fewer years in the lead chair, you'll want to see the impact they made relative to the previous regime in terms of winning, catalyzing interest in the program and recruiting. A longer term head coach needs to demonstrate that he can build something that makes steady progress in all three aspects (winning, fan interest and recruiting).

One can discuss whether Cal prefers a coach who has a certain type of system, e.g. getting up and down on offense, full court pressure on defense, etc. While there's little doubt that some of these systems are more fan friendly than others, what's critical is that the coach has a system that is well defined, that he can recruit players to match and that they have the flexibility to modify and adapt this system as time goes on. While this may sound ubiquitous, one could easily argue that Ben Braun had no real system, recruited players of all different types and seemed to be experimenting from year to year.

Many mid major coaches who have the ingredients above have failed to make the jump to the BCS conference programs. Largely, this is the result of their inability to either recruit or manage the talent at that level. When you jump from the WCC or the MWC to the P10, where and how you recruit changes as does the manner in which these youngsters are motivated. Going from young men who were thrilled to play at D1 level and thus willing to buy into whatever the coach is selling to kids who aspire to the NBA is a jump most head coaches fail to make. One mitigant to this risk is to find a coach who’s had experience as an assistant at a top 20 program. Not only do they know what a top program looks and feels like, they have recruited and motivated (often while learning from one of the masters of the profession) the very best talent.

Berkeley is a unique place and requires a unique coach. It's an urban campus in an area laden with talent, but talent this is often not ready for the academic rigors of Cal. You have to deal with an athletic administration that is in consistently in the red and with an academic administration which often views sports as a necessary evil. Most importantly, it's not a school that is right for every student athlete. Jeff Tedford has turned scouting for this fit into an art form as evidenced by the extraordinary low transfer and academic failure rate within his football program. Understanding Cal and the type of student athletes who can succeed here is essential in our next head basketball coach.

In the nice to have category, it would be great to find a head coach who sees themselves as a west coast person. They would know the AAU and top HS programs on the west coast, have an affinity for the Pac 10 players, coaches and officiating. It would also be great to find someone who has tremendous energy and enthusiasm (e.g they are young and charismatic). Unlike Cal football, where traditional alumni booster organizations exist, there are none for basketball. Finding a head coach who can help create these groups would help overcome some of the endemic financial difficulties within the athletic program and hopefully galvanize more fan interest in the program.

The ideal candidate to me would be a younger head coach looking to build their legacy at a program with great facilities, a world class academic reputation and access to tremendous local talent while playing in one of the best basketball conferences in the country. They would have a proven track record, as a head coach, in recruiting and motivating top 50 prep prospects and would arrive at Cal with a system they understand and a plan to get to the Final Four in the next five years. Now it’s time to find that ideal.

A Fitting End

2008-03-24T17:59:00.000-07:00

Cal’s blow out loss to Ohio State could not have more perfectly captured the current state of the program and its relative standing in the basketball world. For an OSU team that last year was in the Final Four to be able to sell out an almost irrelevant 2nd round NIT game while Cal’s post season starved fans could muster only 1900 fans for last week’s game against New Mexico speaks volumes about the two progams. The only contrast stronger was the difference between the two teams play on the court. Thad Matta’s Buckeyes played smart, tough basketball and overcame an early shooting slump to discombobulate the Bears who played with all the passion and energy of Joe Barry Carroll on one of his off nights. From my vantage point, you could swap coaches for this game and the two teams score would follow.

If, even after tonight’s debacle, Sandy Barbour has any doubts about the right thing to do with Braun all she need do is sit down with the players. She will find a team that has lost confidence and respect for their coach, many of whom are evaluating their options whether it’s early to the NBA or transferring to another school. Should Braun return next season, it’s likely that at least four and perhaps all five of last night’s starters would no longer be on the team.

The quicker Barbour can move to remove Braun and name a successor, the more likely our new coach can convince the remaining talent to stay in Berkeley. For all of Braun’s faults, it’s not like the cupboard is bare. If Anderson returns, he is a likely preseason AA. Christopher is easily a preseason AP10 selection and it’s not hard to imagine Jerome Randle taking a big step forward as many point guards do between their sophomore and junior seasons. Add in Jamal Boykin, Theo Robertson, Omondi Amoke, the 7’2” Max Zhang and two absolute stud incoming freshman guards and this team has real potential. But only if they don’t all leave as quickly as rats fleeing a sinking ship.

An announcement could come as soon as the next few days, but Barbour may wait until she can simultaneously announce Braun’s departure and successor. My next post will outline the likely candidates she is considering.

James Montgomery has left the building

2008-03-19T11:48:00.000-07:00

Cal football's heir apparent at the tailback position asked for and received his release in order to transfer to another school. According to the often dubious reporting of a University of Washington fan site, Montgomery left the Bears with a few parting shots about how Cal was never his first choice out of high school, that we didn't have the type of football tradition he wanted and that in general he never felt comfortable in Berkeley.

Regardless of the accuracy of those statements, what you have is a Sophomore running back who was seemingly on the verge of inheriting one of the more coveted roles in Pac 10 football. Under Jeff Tedford, Cal's running game has become a staple of the offense and the men running the rock for the Bears have achieved at a minimum local stardom and more often than not tremendous opportunities in the NFL. From Adiminobe Echemandu to JJ Arrington to Marshawn Lynch to Justin Forsett, the legacy here is nothing to sneeze about. Add to the equation that the Cal staff believes next years offensive line will be the deepest and most talented in the Tedford era and you begin to scratch your head about what Monty was thinking in bailing out on the eve of Spring Practice.

While the team now has less depth and virtually no returning experience at the position going into the Spring, the answer may be good news for Bear faithful. Montgomery is a bit of a tweener back. In high school, he used his superior quickness and speed to become a Sacramento prep legend. His exploits led to offers from USC, UW and a host of others. Since coming to Berkeley, Montgomery has put on 15-20 pounds of muscle but in doing so may have given up some of his vaunted quickness and speed. The result is that at 5'9" and 205lbs, he lacks the size and strength to be a punishing power back while at the same time is unable to demonstrate the burst and ability to make defenders miss. In watching Montgomery last Spring, I personally thought he was a future star. He was a one cut and go, north south type runner who had very good quickness. However, this Fall as Forsett's principal backup, he seemed to lack the vision and burst required to excel at this level.

It's not impossible to imagine that Montgomery realized that despite his experience and prep credentials that he might exit next Fall not only not starting but buried on the depth chart. Montgomery recently had minor surgery on his knee and hand and was reportedly worried about his ability to perform at a high level in the Spring. When Jeff Tedford moved back the start date of Spring practice, he specifically called out giving time for both Montgomery and fellow TB Shane Vereen as a principal reason to do so underlying that the competition at tailback would be one of areas the staff plans to focus on. The only conclusion I can draw is that Monty looked at the competitive set and felt his knees shake. Best showed that he is far from a track star playing football with a couple of eye popping runs against CSU and Tenn. He also showed off his toughness with stellar special teams play. Vereen had a fabulous Fall camp last year and starred on the Scout team throughout the season. Only a shade slower than Best, Vereen might be quicker and more elusive in the open field. While Best has fought a late season hip injury and Vereen some hamstring problems, the staff is confident both will be 100% soon. Meanwhile, Prep AA TB Covaughn DeBoskie enrolled early at Cal and will play in the Spring. Deboskie is bigger (5'11" and 200lbs) and brings great pass catching skills to the table. Finally, Cal's lone big back, Tracy Slocum has finally gotten healthy and Tedford recently remarked that he looked very impressive in pre Spring workouts.

Tough to lose Montgomery but his reason for departing might be simply that Cal has four studs at his position. If a talented player like Montgomery is scared of the competition, you can't help but feel good about what remains.

QB Spring Battle

2008-03-14T12:58:00.000-07:00

As much curiosity as the future of Ben Braun evokes from Cal fans, it pales next to the question of who will line up behind center against Michigan State next Fall.

Nate Longshore lost most Bear fans last season with his inability to recover from an ankle sprain and his obvious lack of cool under fire. Worse still was the likely loss of his teammate’s confidence in him. Enter Kevin Riley, who wowed fans with his big time arm, his mobility and his obvious moxie. Tedford has said the job is up for grabs going into the Spring but he may be tipping his hand by listing Nate Longshore first on the depth chart. You have to empathize with Tedford, a coach who puts so many mental demands on quarterbacks and thus instinctively has to view Nate’s experience and knowledge of the offense as huge factors. Tedford knows well that teams with senior QBs starting for them markedly outperform those that don’t.

That said, you have to wonder how Nate will respond to the teams melt down under his leadership and more specifically his consistently awful 4th quarter gaffes. And it’s not like Longshore didn’t have a front row seat at the Armed Forces Bowl when Riley looked like a young Joe Montana. Keep in mind this is a young man who lost his father a few years ago and played spectacularly a year earlier than and as recently as last October looked ready to leave early for the NFL after leading the Bears to a 5-0 start and #2 national ranking. Given all that transpired following it, it’s easy to forget how well Nate played against Oregon hitting a myriad of big third down passes.

And as obvious as Riley’s skills are, he wasn’t sitting on the bench last year for no reason at all. Word is that Tedford was reluctant to play him earlier than the Bowl game in large part because he was a bit off a goof, not the most intense practice player and generally acting more like a 19 year old frat boy than the back up QB to the #2 team in the country. Even his at times impressive debut against the Beavers masked a myriad of misreads and mental mistakes. It’s also worth noting that Air Force doesn’t represent the best pass defense in D1 football.

The one thing that is crystal clear is that the Bears will have tremendous depth at QB next year with both Longshore and Riley

I won’t pretend to have any special insight into the QB battle, but I will offer a simple perspective. Riley’s strengths (physical tools, confidence and leadership) are innate while his weaknesses are not unique and almost always get better as a player matures and gains experience. Juxtaposed to Longshore, whose challenges are a crisis of confidence and an inability to make plays when the game is on the line, which are not things that can easily be fixed. To my eye, Riley has a special quality, a certain “it” factor. If he can go into the Spring and demonstrate his mastery of the playbook and his maturity, it would be hard to imagine Tedford not betting on him knowing he has Longshore in the wings if things go awry. If JT goes the other way, he risks alienating the team and his fans and putting even more pressure on the already heavy shoulders of Nate Longshore.

NFL Draft

2008-03-12T20:40:00.000-07:00

Jeff Teford may experience a sense of insult being added to injury when he watches the NFL draft unfold in April. The teams 5-0 start and subsequent meltdown are going to be painfully remembered when people look back at the tremendous talent on last years team. Despite graduating only six starters, the Bears may have as many as eight players picked in the six round draft next month. After yesterday's pro day in Berkeley, it seems likely that at least five Cal players will hear their names called during the draft. DeSean Jackson cemented his first round status catching everything thrown his way during the workout while getting effusive praise from his new mentor, Jerry Rice (BTW, Where the hell was Rice when DeSean was running the wrong routes and fearing any pattern over the middle?). Lavelle Hawkins erased doubts about his speed running a 4.48 40 yesterday while the third amigo Robert Jordan ran a 4.44. Hawkins could go as high as the 2nd and likely won't last past the fourth round. Jordan will be at best a second day pick and may get signed as a Free Agent.

Justin Forsett doesn't have great measurables as his 40 was a 4.56, but his first 20 yards are as quick as any back around and few play with as much heart. He'll join Jordan as a FA signee or a late round pick around almost certain draftees Craig Stevens, Thomas DeCoud and Mike Gibson. Andrew Larsen rounds out the Bears NFL prospects.

When Cal was 5-0 and DeSean was giving interviews on ESPN Gameday, sending this large of the group to the NFL not only seemed possible but likely. But then came the death spiral the second half of the year. One clear cut observation is that from the group of seniors above, none but Forsett came close to being a positive leader for the team. Stevens disappointed on the field, blocking poorly in short yardage situations and never was a factor on passing downs. His quiet, low key personality was a non factor off the field DeCoud ran hot and cold and was never the rallying point he needed to be for a defense that lost its heart down the stretch. Despite having one of the more outgoing personalities on the team, Hawkins dropped too many critical balls (Big Game anyone) and seemed to be too busy cracking up his teammates to give them a kick in the pants. Jackson will be remembered as a wonderful talent whose value as a teammate decreased as adversity (or the failing of Cal's offense to get him the ball) increased.

Going into Spring practice, Tedford and next years crop of seniors are all saying the right things about leadership, but until Cal finds players who are willing to lead by example BOTH on the field and in the locker room a repeat of last years meltdown is a possibility.

The Braun era ends

2008-03-09T20:53:00.000-07:00

As the Bears limp into the Pac 10 tournament this week sporting an impressive # 9 seed, it's become clear to anyone watching that these will be Ben Braun's final days on the sidelines coaching Cal's basketball team. While some have posited that Cal cannot afford his buyout, the reality is they cannot afford not to pay his buyout. The lost revenue from the increasing number of empty seats at Haas Pavilion and more importantly the loss of any donation interest on behalf of the basketball program more than offset the $1M + payout Ben will receive if he is fired. Equally as important is the loss of face for the athletic department at a sensitive time. Influential alumni are not happy with the delays surrounding the new training and office facility near Memorial Stadium and the knock on effect those delays have for the stadium retrofit. While the athletic department cannot be held completely accountable for the delays, the will be for the negative fallout. Further delays could impact Jeff Tedford's decision to stay in Berkeley long term and in conjunction with Ben Braun's challenges would leave the school with both revenue generating sports in disarray. Expect an announcement from Sandy Barbour in the next seven days detailing Braun's departure.

Ben Braun will not be the only unplanned departure from the basketball program this Spring. Sophomore Ryan Anderson is a virtual certainty to declare for the NBA draft. Anderson has a combination of size and skills that are valued at a premium in the NBA and he will likely be a mid 1st round draft choice in June.

With the likely departure of Braun and Anderson, what type of a team will the next head men's basketball coach inherit? Further departures from the existing roster will be limited as only four non seniors under scholarship have not already taken a redshirt year. Having used the NCAA allowed one year to sit out, it's unlikely a player will forfeit another year sitting out per the NCAAs transfer rules. While there's risk that Patrick Christopher, Harper Kamp and/or Jerome Randle could leave in the wake of Braun's departure, it doesn't seem likely that any of the three would choose to do so. Randle and Christopher are both starters and should be the focal points of next years team with the loss of Devon Hardin and Ryan Anderson. Kamp saw significant minutes as a true freshman this year and figures to be in the mix for a starting spot next season. The bigger risks in my opinion are incoming freshman guards, Garrett Sim and DJ Seeley. Both are combination guards with good size and the ability to score. Seeley is a top 50 national player who will likely be the Bears first wing off the bench next year while Sim will challenge Knezevic for the backup PG role. The NCAA allows incoming freshman to get out of their letters of intent if there is a head coaching change and it will be a priority for the new head coach to re recruit them to Berkeley